Transcript Mongolia - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research & Training

Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
P.Batima,
PI, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
D.Dagvadorj General consultant, National Agency for Meteorology and
Hydrology and Environment Monitoring
R.Oyun,
JEMR Co.Ltd
T.Chuluun,
Mongolian Academy of Science
Mongolia is a landlocked country in Northeast Asia located between the latitudes of 41o35’N
and 52o09’N and the longitudes of 87o44’E and 119o56’E. Mongolia’s territory reaches
relatively high altitudes: while the average altitude is 1,580 meters above sea level, 81.2% of
the territory is higher than 1,000 meters, and half of the territory is higher than 1,500 meters.
In Mongolia, all natural
zones such as high
mountains,
valleys
between the mountain
ranges, wide steppe,
desert and semi-desert
zones are combined.
Ecologically,
Mongolia
occupies
a
critical
transition zone in Central
Asia: here the great
Siberian taiga forest, the
Central Asian steppe, the
high Altai mountains and
the
Gobi
desert
converge.
Climate Change Studies in Mongolia
There have been conducted several climate change studies in Mongolia. The
first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program
(USCSP) in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted
preliminary assessment of climate change impacts.
In 1999 Mongolia developed its National Action Programme on Climate
Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The
programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation
measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation
measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies.
Mongolia submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in
2001
Some results from past studies
400
3 .0
T e m p e r a tu r e ,
2 .0
Pr e c ip ita tio n , m m
oC
300
1 .0
200
0 .0
- 1 .0
100
- 2 .0
•
•
World air temperature 0.3-0.60C for last
100 years
Annual mean temperature 1.56oC
•Winter temperature 3.61oC
•Spring 1.5oC
•Summer -0.3oC
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
0
1940
- 3 .0
The overall objectives of this project is Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for
Rangeland and Livestock in Mongolia. This overall objective will meet by fulfilling three main inter-related subobjectives such as: Past and future climate change assessment; Impact and V&A assessment of grassland
ecosystem; Impact and V&A assessment of livestock productivity.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change and
V&A Assessment for Rangeland and
Livestock in Mongolia
Past, present and future
climate change
assessment
Impact and V&A
assessment of Rangeland
ecosystem
Use of global CC scenarios
Water supply
Impact and V&A
assessment of Livestock
and Food productivity
production
Animal weight changes
Development of regional
CC scenarios
Pasture productivity
Herd structure
Vegetation species
Breading management
Selection of appropriate
CC scenarios
Pasture carrying capacity
Meat and milk production
CC Trend analysis
Soil-plant
Food structure and supply
Natural resources analysis
Fodder and hey resources
Socio-economic analysis
The highest priority
will be giving to the
study of interactions
between climate,
grassland and
pastoral systems, and
integration of social
factors in this
analysis. Also the
scientific
understanding of past
climate change
impact on grassland
ecosystems and
livestock sector, and
assessment of their
vulnerability and
adaptation will have
high preference
• NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANTS
• Three national and two international consultants
• PROJECT MANAGEMENT TEAM
• Principle investigator
• Three group leader
• TECHNICAL EXPERT TEAM
• Team on climate change study (4-5 experts)
• Team on rangeland study (10-12 experts)
• Team on livestock study (10-12 experts)
• Team on database and networking (2-3 experts)
The Institute of Meteorology and
Hydrology is the administrating
institution
for
the
project
implementation.
The
institute
conducts climate change studies
since 1993.
The ministry most closely
involved in climate change and
environmental problem is the
Ministry
of
Nature
and
Environment (MNE).
Other important organizations that will involve in the project activities are
the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute
for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory,
Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of
Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of
Agriculture and others. Private sector and NGOs are also involved in
climate change activities.
The evaluation the impact of climate change and Vulnerability and Adaptation
assessment on agriculture focuses on a framework which can provide step by step
evaluation of the direct and indirect effects.
The analytical approach will be
based on review and evaluation of
past studies and learning from the
evaluation.
The ecosystem model “CENTURY”,
The Dynamic statistical model of the
ewe weight and Basin Conceptual
model
Remote
sensing
and
GIS
technology will be used for data
gathering, thematic processing of
attributes, maps and images…
+
Field trip
+
Participatory involvement
survey
+
Training
The Holdridge life zone classification model will used for evaluating the potential impacts
of climate change on natural zones. The Holdridge model relates the current spatial
distribution of vegetation to features of the climate system. This model is suitable for
examining (1) broad scale patterns of vegetation as they relate to climate and (2) the
influence of climate changes on the suitability of a region to support different vegetation
types. The model provides a regional mapping system for interpreting spatial changes in
climate patterns throughout the country or region.
Some results from past studies
9 to 10
12 to 13
13 to 14
14 to 15
18 to 19
19 to 20
20 to 21
25 to 26
•
•
•
•
•
Holdridge Life zone
classification model
High mountain: 0.1-14%
Steppe: 0.1-3
Desert steppe: 7%
Gobi desert would increase 13%
Basin conceptual Model (BCM) will be used to estimate water resources. The
BCM is a monthly balance model which uses multiannual monthly mean values
of precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff .
Some results from past studies
70
• Surface water resources
would increase in the first
quarto
• Then will decrease rapidly
• No changes in seasonal
distribution
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Current
2040
2070
AOB
IDB
POB
The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight calculation for winter and spring model will be
used evaluate the direct impact of climate change on ewe weight change and meat productivity.
Some results from past studies
2040
I
2070
Changes in sheep
autumn weight,kg
CCCM
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
CSIROMK
ECHAM
GFDL
HADLEY
High
mountain
Forest
steppe
Steppe
Govi
High
mountain
Forest
steppe
Steppe
Govi
• Grazing time would decrease by 0.7-2.0 hours
• Daily weight would decrease by 4-20 gr
The
result
of
impact
assessment indicates that
temperature increases have a
negative impact on ewe
weight
gain
in
all
geographical regions. Under
unchanged management, ewe
live-weight gain will be
lower. The averaged ewe
weight at the end of autumn
will be 2.2 kg lower in the
high mountains, 1.4 kg in the
forest steppe, 0.8 kg in the
Gobi region and, 0.2 kg in the
steppe
Socio-economic
scenarios
Climate change
scenarios
Natural zones
Water resources
Livestock
production
Snow cover
Integrated
Permafrost
Pests and disease
Assessment
Soil erosion
Desertification
Forest and steppe fires
Vulnerability
Rangeland
production
Adaptation
strategy
Implementation
measures
Assess past and present climate change
Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors
Assess potential impacts
Identify adaptation options
Examine constrains
Formulate alternative strategies
Develop implementation strategies
Certain part of the project activities will be the Capacity building which is based on
advanced methodology of climate change assessment and information and
communication technology for integrated processing and analyzing the climatic,
environmental and socio-economic information. The measures we plan to conduct are
Local training of scientific and technical personnel as well as policy makers in the field
of climate change by the trained national experts
Establish networked database and integrated information processing, analysis and
dissemination system
Take a measure to participate the national experts in the international training on climate
change issues
Enhance of capacity of technical personnel to convey clear and concise information
on climate change issues to policy-makers through international and local training
Preparation of information materials for staff in government agencies, NGOs, industries,
financial agencies, and academic institutions related to the climate change problems and
concerns
Broad involvement of undergraduate and postgraduate students in the
meteorological and environmental faculty of State and Private Universities in the
field as well al desk study.
The pastoral systems became more dependent on a more
technologically-based system of hay production and trucking of
animals. However, these systems provided a buffer against extreme
climate events. Today the change in economic and political policy has
undermined these coping mechanisms and have resulted in a more
vulnerable situation.
Identification and clear definition of climate change impacts on
pasture vegetation, herd structure and meat and milk production,
and adaptation options that will add new set of measures of
climate change that enable agriculture and food sector to adapt to
the potential climate change will be disseminated as a
recommendation to decision makers.
Information to reduce vulnerability will be produced and
discussed with the herders and local administration and
policymaking to build adaptive capacity options in the context
of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated in
collaboration of all stakeholders.
Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental
sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate
Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government
Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report
will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming,
variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and
vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM),
ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey.
Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in
pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies
will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable
region will be recommended.
Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated,
and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with
particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems.
Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem
and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project.
Additional slides:
Study area
Sectors to be studied:
• Natural resources
•
•
•
water resources,
snow cover,
permafrost
• Pasture capacity
•
•
Vegetation species
Carrying capacity
• Animal husbandry
•
•
Weight
productivity
Methodologies
Vulnerability assessment
–
–
–
–
Coping range
Vulnerability map
Vulnerability index
Sensitivity analysis
• Integrated assessment
– Cross impact analysis
– Develop “Integrated assessment
methodology”
Extreme events
Extreme events that will take in impact
and vulnerability assessment
»‘Dzud’- severe winter
»Drougth
»Wind storm
(Frequency, spatial distribution, duration,
consequences)
Adaptation assessment
• Adaptive capacity of pasture
• Adaptation options
– Cost benefit analysis
– Multi-criteria analysis
– Analysis of effectiveness