Transcript Dr.Nanyingi_IFVM_CC_2012

Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation and
Mitigation of Livestock Systems in Kenya
Nanyingi M O, Kiama S G, Thumbi S M, Muchemi G M and Bett B
THEME: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ONE HEALTH
8th Biennial Scientific Conference (FVM) and the 46 th Annual Scientific Conference
(KVA), Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi
25th April 2012 (12.30pm)
1
4/13/2015
1.0 Climate change impacts on livestock
In 2006 and 2007, PH
Burden of RVF OB
resulted in 3.4 DALYs
per 1000 people and
household costs of
about Ksh 10,000
(USD120)
3%GDP loss
$500M/(2012)
$1-2 B(2030)
2
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
1.2 Vulnerability and Adaptive capacity
1. Biophysical: The sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard
2. Social: sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure.
Impact is a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability
Literacy
Groundwater?
Soil
degradation
Biophysical
mortality
Social:
Technological??
Climate vulnerability, coping range and adaptive capacity
Vincent (2004)
4/13/2015
3
© Nanyingi 2012
1.3 Adaptation and Mitigation ?

To effectively manage vulnerability: Adaptation is to reduce sensitivity and
Mitigation to reduce the magnitude of climate change impact.

Adaptation research can help inform decisions by farmers and policy makers on
implications over a range of timeframes to effectively integrate mitigation
mechanisms

Vulnerability analyses can guide governments of the investment or disinvestment
decisions currently or in the near future in relation to climate-sensitive aspects.

Translating adaptation options into mitigation requires consideration of a more
comprehensive risk management /vulnerability framework that allows exploration
of quantified scenarios.
Howden et al 2007
4/13/2015
4
© Nanyingi 2012
1.4 Existing adaptation and mitigation strategies

Nomadic pastoralism in search of water and pastures

Designated community watering points or buffer grazing areas

Traditional Early Warning Systems (TEWS)

Use of emergency fodders or forage crops

Diversification of species herd composition(small ruminants)

Increase of herd size as security to mortality and Livestock trading

Ethno-veterinary Medicine (EVM)
5 2010
Nanyingi et al., 2008; Hellmuth et al., 2009; Notenbaert et al.,
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
1.5 Impediments to adaptation and Mitigation

Lack of economic capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate

Environmental Degradation: fragmentation and Desertification

Armed conflict and out-migration (Stock theft and trade barriers)

Lack of appropriate breeds of animals

Ineffective livestock policies (Institutional or government )

Extreme increase in human and animal Populations (Exponential)

Deplorable education levels and Religious beliefs
Madisson 2010
4/13/2015
6
© Nanyingi 2012
1.6 Emerging adaptation/mitigation mechanisms

Sustainable Intensification


Improved feeding regimes by supplementation and climate resistant forage crops
,conservation of grasslands, rotational or adaptive grazing
Production adjustments- modifying stock routings and distances
Reproductive technologies for increased production and disease/heat tolerant
breeds , faster growing breeds
Market improvement by incentives and standardization
Physical infrastructure (Roads, rails, jetty's, cooling facilities)
Disease Surveillance and Management (Transboundary)- DVS
Improved management of water, herd composition, stock rates

Survival and livelihood diversification

Diversifying incomes by mixed livestock farming systems
Index Based Livelihood Insurance systems (IBLI)






Madisson 2010; Herrero et al7 2010
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
2.0 Why climate change research?

To understand how short-term response strategies may link to long-term options
for implemented decisions do not undermine coping ability.

Linking Climate change with existing dynamic policies to cope with high level of
uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential climate changes and the
rapidly evolving knowledge base (NSCC)

Development of spatial predictive models for improved understanding and
translation into accurate seasonal forecasting of future climatological data

Collaborative efforts in addressing the climate change challenges can support
“one health” initiatives addressing climate sensitive neglected zoonotic diseases.
8
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
2.1 Potential Research Approaches

Community Participatory Epidemiology (CPE): Capacity building livestock
keepers , Decision Support tools

Quantifying sensitivity to climate change, societal resilience, adaptive capacity
and costs of impacts of CC(Disease Burden and Economic Modelling Analysis )

Spatial and temporal predictive modelling of livestock diseases- Mapping of
disease hotspots, watering areas, transhumance corridors and overlay the climate
change hotspots with the food insecure hotspots

Global Circulation Models (GCM) –Climate models to predict seasonal to interannual climate variability (HadCM3, ECHam4 , MarkSim)
9
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
3.0 Discussion :

Vulnerable communities need financial and material support for creating
alternative livelihood options with reduced dependence on livestock farming

Capacity to make continuing adjustments and improvements in adaptation by
“learning by doing” via targeted monitoring of adaptations to climate change and
their costs, benefits, and effects.

Local communities should be equipped with the necessary resources (financial,
physical, social, and human) to cope and adapt, while an effective institutional
capacity and supportive policy context is initiated.

It is important to identify easy to implement and cost effective mitigation
activities strengthening the adaptive capacities to climate change of these
communities.
10
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
4.0 Conclusions :

Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation policies intended to enhance broad
resilience to risk or to promote sustainable development.

Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) linked to biophysical, climatic, social,
economic processes consistent evaluation of adaptation and vulnerability

Climate monitoring and effective communication, including targeted support of
surveillance of pests, diseases, directly affected by climate.

Strengthening the Interaction of science and policy needs to evolve as the
scientific knowledge base changes and focus attention on the importance of
integrative rather than disciplinary science
11
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
5.0 Recommendations :

Multidisciplinary research teams to effectively harness the substantial scientific
knowledge, while retaining a focus on the values important to stakeholders in
achieving relevance, credibility, and legitimacy (Climate change Working
Group???)

Many barriers to adaptation exist; overcoming them will require a comprehensive
and dynamic policy approach, covering a range of scales and issues, from
individual farmer awareness to the establishment of more efficient markets.

Current climate variability can be tackled by accelerating development and
increasing social protection while future climate risks can be checked by building
adaptive capacity and enhancing climate resilience of vulnerable communities .
12
4/13/2015
© Nanyingi 2012
Thank You- Asanteni Sana
Addressing climate change is “a moral commitment to the global community”
[email protected]
4/13/2015
13
© Nanyingi 2012