Transcript X - UWE Bristol

Institute for Sustainability, Health and
Environment
Inaugural Conference
Anticipating tomorrow for changing today
UWE, Bristol, 21st April 2009
Sara Parkin
Founder Director
www.forumforthefuture.org.uk
What will relationship between health
and environmental sustainability look like
in 2035 and what to do now?
Well before 2035:
• We are headed for irretrievable breakdown
• Government chief scientists expects a ‘perfect
storm’ of catastrophes
What to do
• Heed Obama’s advisors
• Let realism and urgency infect everything we do
• Start an emergency programme to build
‘sustainability literacy’
Symptoms of Unsustainability
Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005
15 out of 24 ecosystem
services are degraded or
being used unsustainably
Millennium Development
Goals 2005
“If current trends exist there
is a risk many of the poorest
countries will not be able to
meet many of them”
Big symptom of unsustainability
– climate change manifest globally & locally
Copenhagen: key messages
• Climatic Trends
• Observations confirm worst-case IPCC trajectories are being realised.
• Social disruption
• Many societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change
• Long-Term Strategy
• Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation is required to avoid "dangerous
climate change"
• Equity Dimensions
• Climate change will have strongly differential effects on people (intra and intergenerational) and biodiversity.
• Inaction is Inexcusable
• Many of the tools and approaches to deal effectively with the climate change
challenge already exist.
• Meeting the Challenge
• Need to overcome significant constraints (e.g. inertia in economic and social
systems) and seize critical opportunities (development of the green economy).
The (im)perfect storm
Source: CSA March 2009
Unsustainable development
Shrinking supply side
Growing demand side
1946
2.2 billion
1972
3.6 billion
2009
6.8 billion
2035
8.5 billion
2050
9.2 (10.7) billion
“Normally, large, aggressive, predatory mammals are rare –
humans have broken this rule”
Colin Tudge, 2005
Numbers matter,
but so does space and impact
people
per sq km
Bangladesh
Netherlands
England & Wales
China
European Union (25)
Kenya
USA
Multiple sources
954
468
389
143
118
53
29
carbon emissions
p/capita p/year
tonnes
0.2
8.7
11
2.2
2.8
0.3
19.8
Inequality in GHG emissions
N America
tons CO2e/y
per person
Europe Middle East
North Africa
S and C America
5
Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
0
Watkinson LWEC
1
2
3
4
Population (billions)
5
6
The impacts of population change
on GHG emissions
1 billion fewer people
in Africa
4 billion fewer people
in Asia and Africa
1 billion fewer US-style
consumers
Watkinson LWEC
Population policy in the UK?
• 33-40% pregnancies (all ages) unplanned, rising
to 90% in teenagers
• Inconsistent relationship and sex education
• Difficult to access services and full choice of
contraceptives
• Child benefit
• Aging population seen as needing more births
• No links between population and environment
US National Intelligence Council
“leadership matters, no trend is immutable,
and timely and well-informed intervention
can decrease the likelihood and severity of
negative developments and increase the
likelihood of positive ones.”
Global Trends 2025: A transformed world
What are you teaching?
BACK TO THE PAST … or …
FORWARD TO SUS’Y??
We are here
can you imagine
a different future?
in the depression
Sustainability Literacy
 Understand why behaviour needs to change
 Have the knowledge and skills to behave
differently
 Be able to recognise and reward right
behaviour in others
Forum for the Future, UK Sustainable Development Strategy
Four Habits of Thought
 Resilience
 Relationships
 Reflection
 Reverence
Sustainability and health priorities
CarbonWatchers: per capita targets 11 tonnes now,
7 by 2020, 2 by 2050
 cut out waste
 grow natural capital
Two will do population policy
 bust myths that population growth is good
 keep old active and healthy
Grow human and social capital
 improve mental and physical health
 build capacity to participate – and take action
 develop community resilience
Make the connections, win the argument
freedom from calamity
prosperity
enjoyment of health
WELFARE
HEALTH
soundness of
body/mind
wholesome
BEING WELL
WEALTH
prosperity
thriving
flourishing
HAPPY
fortunate
content
felicitous
all of these are cheaper than the opposite
“Always do right. This will gratify some
people and astonish the rest”
Mark Twain
Thank you for listening!
www.forumforthefuture.org
Forum for the Future
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