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The evaluation of phenological phases of fruit tree species Apricot (Prunus Armeniaca) in a southern Moravia during 1961–2008 Lenka Bartosova (1), Zdenek Bauer (1), Mirek Trnka (1), Petr Stepanek (2), Martin Mozny (3), Jan Balek (1) (1) Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic, [email protected] (2) Department of Climatology and Meteorology, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Brno, Czech Republic (3) Agrometeorological observatory in Doksany, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Doksany, Czech Republic Introduction Phenology studies developmental milestones in a plant and animal lives and their phenophases and is deemed the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change. We present phenophases ´first flower´ and ´full flowering´ of Apricot (Prunus armeniaca) on this poster which were observed during 1961 and 2008 in traditional apricot orchard in southern Moravia. At the same region we have observed other fruit tree species, such as apple tree, cherry tree and pear tree and the team is now preparing results. Aims - to determine how will change the length of phenophases if the temperature will rise about 1°C - to evaluate which meteorological parameters influenced the length of phenophases most significantly - to assess how the phenophases has advanced since 1961 to 2008 - to describe the different length of phenophases under the terms of different temperature conditions Methodology Meteorological input data – T max, T min, S Rad, Wind, Rain, Vapo Phenological input data (first flower, full flowering) since 1961 to 2008 Model FenoClim Output data for the period of particular pfenophases – T max, T min, T avg, Rain, S Rad, Daylength, DD over treshold Results The length of apricot phenophases is most significantly influenced by average and maximum temperature. Further statistical analyses show that minimum temperature influenced the duration less; day length, solar radiation and rain has no significant influence Lenght of phenophases T Avg: R2 = 0,58, r = -0,76**, ↑1°C = ↓1,0 days T Max: R2 = 0,59, r = -0,76**, ↑1°C = ↓1,3 days T Min: R2 = 0,41, r = -0,64**, ↑1°C = ↓0,7 days Pict. 1: The course of apricot first flower and full flowering S Rad: R2 = 0,21, r = -0,45*, ↑1MJ.m-2.den-1 = ↓0,7 days Day-lenght: R2 = 0,05, r = -0,23 Rain: R2 = 0,19, r = 0,44 First flower of apricot (pict. 1, solid black line) has advanced by 11, 8 days during the while period of observation. Full flowering (pict. 1, solid gray line) has shifted to the earlier time by 10, 8 days per 47 years. During the longest phenophases (year 2002, 14 days) was average temperature 5,95°C (pict. 2, solid blue line) by contrast during the shortest phenophases (year 1962, 3 days) was average temperature 18, 35°C (pict. 2, solid red line). Pict. 2: Different duration of phenophases in two different years Lower threshold value for development was determined according to correlation coefficients of mean and maximum degree days (DD) and the length of given phenophase. The lower threshold value for apricot was 1,4°C and in this case the value of DD for full flowering is 49,88°C (Tab. 1) Tab. 1: Values of DD for various lower treshold for development Conclusion The length, duration and timing of Prunus armeniaca phenophases are most closely correlated with the average and maximum temperatures. If this temperature rises by 1°C the length of apricot phenophases will be shorter by 1,3 days. Results of other fruit tree species are preparing and will be published later. Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 521/08/1682), Research plan No. MSM6215648905 „Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change“ and of KONTAKT OC187 (linked to COST 734) that enabled data collection and development of the FenoClim software used in the study.