Transcript Olgunlade Davidson

Climate Change and Planning of
Cities:
findings from AR4 IPCC
Prof Ogunlade R Davidson
Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group III
University of Sierra Leone
Sustainable Cities Summit
London, England 22 November, 2007
Contents of Lecture
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About IPCC
Introduction
Science of Climate Change
Adaptation to Climate Change
Mitigation strategies
Conclusions
About the IPCC
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Founded in 1988 by UNEP and WMO for providing the world policy
community with updated information on climate change
It assess research findings and undertake limited methodological work,
but do not make recommendations
Assessment is based only peer-reviewed literature and limited grey
literature under specific conditions
Authors are from academic, industrial and NGO experts and fall into
three categories
– Convening Lead Author (CLA)
– Lead Author (LA)
– Contributing Author (CA)
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Reviews by independent Experts and Governments
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Policy relevant, but NOT policy prescriptive
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Full report and technical summary: reviwed by experts and accepted by
governments
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Summary for policymakers: government approval
IPCC chair
IPCC Secretariat
WMO/UNEP
IPCC Bureau
Working
Group I
Working
Group II
Working
Group III
Science
Impacts and
adaptation
Mitigation
UK/Argentina
Netherland/Sierra
Leone
WGI co-chairs
WGII co-chairs
WGIII co-chairs
Technical
Support Unit
USA
Technical
Support Unit
UK
Technical
Support Unit
Netherlands
USA/China
Task force
on National GHG
Inventories
Japan/Brazil
NGGIP co-chairs
Technical
Support Unit
Japan
Over 3000 Experts, Authors, Contributors, Reviewers
The Evolution of
Ideas within
the IPCC
IPCC First
Assessment
Report
Climate
+Impacts
(Efficiency)
IPCC Second
Assessment
Report
IPCC Third
Assessment
Report
IPCC Fourth
Assessment
Report
Climate
+Impacts
Climate
+Impacts
Efficiency
Climate
+Impacts
Efficiency
Equity
Efficiency
Equity
Sustainability
+Development
(Equity)
(Sustainability
+Development)
Continuing Focus
New Focus
Emerging Focus
(Sustainable
Development)
The Climate Change is more a developmental
than environmental Problem
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Carbon dioxide and other GHGs from fossil fuel combustion started in
1800s to present
Concentration of GHGs causing warming of the earth
Significant increase in GHG emissions globally
Observations: All major GHG
concentrations has increased
since Pre-industrial CO2 grew
from 280
ppm in 1750
to 379 ppm
in 2005
Methane
grew from
715 ppb in
1750 to 1774
ppb 2005
N20 grew from
270 ppb in
1750 to 319
ppb in 2005
OBSERVATION ON ATTRIBUTION
• Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to
be greatest over land and at most high northern
latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and
parts of the North Atlantic ocean
Impacts will
vary by extent of
adaptation,
rate of
temperature
change,
and
socio-economic
development
pathway
Carbon dioxide is
the largest
contributor
Transport Sector offer major
opportunities
• As economic activities
grow in cities so are their
GHG emissions
• Motorisation dominates
transport activity that
create other problems –
congestion and airpollution
• Transport accounts for
23% of GHG emissions
and have increased by
27% since 1990
• This sector has the
highest growth
Projected GHG and Mitigation Potential
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Current climate change
mitigation policies and
related sustainable
development practices
(SRES), could increase
between 25-90%
between 2000 and 2030
Mitigation potential
based on both bottom-up
and top-down studies
could offset the expected
GHG emissions growth
All sectors could
contribute though their
potential differ in quantity
and sectors
Estimates do not include non-technical options such lifestyle changes
Energy Supply Mitigation Technologies
NOW
2030
Transport Mitigation Technologies
NOW
2030
Commercial mitigation technologies in the building
sector
NOW
2030
Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns
can contribute to climate change mitigation
• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural
patterns and consumer choice in buildings.
• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving
style, in relation to urban planning and
availability of public transport
• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations
in light of reward systems
Public Policies will be crucial
• Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005
levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern
of investment
• Many barriers for implementing low-cost mitigation
measures
• An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant
mitigation potential in all sectors, hence policies are
essential to create a carbon price (direct or indirect)
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies
may take many decades, even if early investments in
these technologies are made attractive.
• It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy
efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply
Climate Policy alone will not solve
the climate change problem
• Macro-economic policy: taxes, subsidies, other fiscal
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policies, structural adjustment
Trade policy: “embodied carbon”, removing barriers for
low-carbon products, domestic energy sources
Energy security policy : efficient energy use, domestic
energy sources (low-high carbon)
Access to modern energy: bio-energy, poverty tariffs
Air quality policy: clean fuel
Bank lending policies: lending for efficiency/ renewable
energy, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing
countries
Insurance policy: Differentiated premiums, liability
insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green
products
Non-climate policies can influence GHG
emissions as much as specific climate policies
Sectors
Non-climate policies -- Candidates
for integrating climate concerns
Possible influence
(% of global
emissions)
Macro-economy
Taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies
All GHG emissions
(100 %)
Forestry
Forest protection, sustainable management
GHGs deforestation (7%)
Electricity
Renewable energy, demand management,
decreasing losses transport,/distribution
Electricity sector
emissions (20 %)
Oil-imports
Diversification energy sources/decrease
intensity -> enhance energy security
GHGs from oil product
imports (20 %)
Insurance
buildings,
infrastructure
Differentiated premiums, liability conditions, GHG emissions buildings,
improved conditions green products
transport (20 %)
Bank lending
Strategy/policy, lending projects accounting
for options emission limitations
Notably development
projects (25%)
Rural energy
Policies promoting LPG, kerosene and
electricity for cooking
Extra emissions over
biomass (<2 %)
Lower stabilisation level require global
emissions to go down early
Stabilization targets:
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
30
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
Equilibrium global mean temperature
increase over preindustrial (°C)
– RD&D efforts
– Investments in new
technologies
– Tax credits
– Standard setting
– Technology development and
transfer
– Market creation
Post-SRES (max)
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C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC)
• Lower stabilization levels (550
ppm CO2-eq or lower) require
major policies and government
support:
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
25
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
20
15
10
5
Post-SRES (min)
0
-5
2000
2010 2020
2030
2040
2050 2060
2070
2080 2090
2100
Post-SRES (max)
35
Stabilization targets:
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC)
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
25
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
20
15
10
• An effective carbon-price
signal could realize significant
mitigation potential
5
Post-SRES (min)
0
Equilibrium global mean temperature
increase over preindustrial (°C)
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
30
-5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)
Development path as important as specific
climate mitigation policies
Development
path with HIGH
base
emissions
Climate policy can
have Positive or
negative effects
Non-climate
policies
can influence
GHG emissions
Development
path with LOW
emissions
Conclusions
• Global warming is equivocal and early action by
governments are needed to reduce serious
climate risks
• Large number of technologies are available now
and in The near future to offset the GHG
emissions
• Linking sustainable development aspirations
with climate policies provide governments the
opportunity to avert the possible climate threats
Thank you for your attention
Further Information
Contact
University of Sierra Leone
Freetown, Sierra Leone.
Tel. No. 232-22-223340
Fax. No 232-22-223270
Email: [email protected]