Transcript 2 MB - arcus

Climate Change in the American Mind
Anthony Leiserowitz
Decision Research
Support from The National Science Foundation
Outline
1. American images of global warming
2. Who perceives climate change as a risk,
who doesn’t, and why?
3. Vicarious experience through film:
The Day After Tomorrow
4. Does direct experience matter (yet)?
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
“Of all the imps that inhabit the nervous
system, that little black box in psychological
theorizing – the one we call meaning – is
held by common consent to be the most
elusive. Yet again by common consent of
social scientists, this variable is one of the
most important determinants of human
behavior” (Osgood, et al. 1957).
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
American Images of Global Warming
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Human Health Impacts
No associations to:
•
Temperature-related morbidity and mortality (heat stroke)
•
Health effects of extreme weather events (floods,
hurricanes)
•
Air pollution health effects (asthma, allergies)
•
Water / food-borne disease (Cholera, E-coli, Giardia)
•
Vector / rodent-borne disease (Malaria, West Nile Virus)
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Who perceives climate change as a
risk, who doesn’t, and why?
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Interpretive Communities
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Alarmists
•
“Bad…bad…bad..like after nuclear war.”
•
“Heat waves, it’s gonna kill the world.”
•
“Our earth will become survival of the fittest and
devastation to mankind.”
•
“Death of the planet.”
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Naysayers
•
Flat Denials: “There is no global warming.”
•
It’s Natural: “A natural phenomenon that has been going on for
years.”
•
Doubting the Science: “Bad science, I don’t believe the data can
support the hypothesis that the environment is warming.”
•
Doubt Based on Personal Experience: “I think it’s a myth. Summers
are getting shorter and winters seem to be getting damper and cooler.
It seems to be going the other way.”
•
Media Hype: “It is not as bad as the media portrays.”
•
Conspiracy Theory: “Fraud. Scientists making up some statistics for
their job security.”
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Risk Perceptions
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Policy Support
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Trust
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Vicarious Experience Through Film:
The Day After Tomorrow
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Concern and Worry
“Somewhat/Strongly Concerned and a Fair/Great Deal Worried”
100
Watchers
Non-Watchers
83**
Percent
75
72
50
40**
31
25
0
How concerned are you about
global warming?
How much do you worry about
global warming?
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Likelihood of Impacts on the U.S.
“Somewhat or Very Likely”
100
Watchers
Non-watchers
82**
75
72
68*
Percent
63*
56
61*
60***
55
51
50
41
41***
23
25
0
More intense
storms,
hurricanes,
tornadoes
Flooding of
major cities
Food
shortages
Standards of A shutdown of A new ice age
living decrease
the Gulf
Stream
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Priority Ranking of National Issues
К
Priority ranking of national issues
a
b
Rank
Movie watchers
1
Economy
Econmy
2
Health care
Terrorism
3
Terrorism
Health Care
4
Education
Education
5
Social security
Social Security
6
Medicare
Medicare
7
Federal budget deficit
Federal budget deficit
8
Global warming*** Nonwatchers
Crime
9
Tax cuts
Tax cuts
10
Crime
Global warming
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Behavioral Intentions
How likely are you to do the following because of your concerns about global warming?
75
Watchers
68**
Non-watchers
63***
55
50
50**
44
42*
32
31
25
0
Purchase a more Talk to friends or
Join, donate
Contact politicians
fuel-efficient car family about global money, volunteer
warming
w/global warming
group
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Media Coverage
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Does direct experience matter (yet)?
Climate change detection,
decision making and adaptation
in Alaska
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Study Structure
1. Interviews (summer-fall ‘05)
2. Statewide survey (n = 1,000) (winter ‘06)
3. Stakeholder workshop(s) to assist
development of local climate action plan
(summer ‘06)
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Number of Climate Change Articles per Month
in Alaskan Newspapers (1995-2005)
25
ACIA
Articles
20
15
Kyoto
10
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]
Summary and Conclusions
• The American public perceives climate change as a
threat, and supports action, but no sense of urgency or
priority
• Speak to the head (analytical mode) and the heart
(experiential mode)
• Tailor the message (and the messenger) for your
audience
• The frame (climate change in the Arctic) is set in the
American mind, but the canvas contains only faint
sketches
Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, [email protected]