Transcript South Africa Workshop 16-17 October 2005 Looking to the Future

B
A
S
I
C
National Climate Change Conference
“Climate Action Now”
South Africa, 17-21 October 2005
Climate Change Consultative Conference
The CDM and strengthening a
post-2010 climate regime
Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho
Visiting Professor
Institute for Advanced Studies
University of São Paulo
B A S I C
The UNFCCC established a
mandatory quantitative objective of
“stabilizing the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases
at a level...”
B
A
S
I
C
This implies that all countries are
committed, collectively, to reach a
situation where the net anthropogenic
emissions (net means emissions
minus removals), remain constant
over time.
B
A
S
I
C
Given the dynamic equilibrium of
carbon dioxide between the
atmosphere and the terrestrial
biosphere, in practice we have to
stabilize the stock of carbon in the
atmosphere-biosphere system.
B
A
S
I
C
From the point of view of the history
of emissions, developing countries
are those that, by 1990, had not yet
reached their objectives of providing
energy, transportation, etc, to all of
their population.
B
A
S
I
C
Even if the industrialized countries
ceased all of their emissions today,
the developing countries would have
to limit their emissions. The level at
which they would limit their emissions
could be at a higher than the present
level, on a per capita basis.
B
A
S
I
C
Regardless of the level at which the
atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide is to be stabilized, it will be
necessary to reduce its global
emissions by about 60 percent,
otherwise there is no stabilization.
B
A
S
I
C
The long-term challenge for
developing countries is then to seek
a future in which their emissions are
limited. This is sustainability from the
point of view of climate.
B
A
S
I
C
The near-term challenge for
developing countries is to use the
international climate change
agreements to facilitate the transition
to that future.
B
A
S
I
C
The Convention provides for a
differentiation of commitments (common
but differentiated responsibility).
In particular, non-Annex I countries are
supposed to receive financial resources
to support their commitments.
B
A
S
I
C
At present, in addition to ODA and
GEF as the financial mechanism of
the Convention, the only practical
mechanism for the provision of those
financial resources is the Clean
Development Mechanism of the
Kyoto Protocol.
B
A
S
I
C
It follows that the post-2012 CDM is a
significant part of the debate on the
post-2012 regime.
B
A
S
I
C
Lack of clarity about the second and
further commitment periods under the
Kyoto Protocol is translated as risk
for the investors. This fact is already
influencing negatively investor
decisions.
B
A
S
I
C
Any post-2012 regime containing a
CDM style mechanism must contain
assurances over a period of time
longer than at present.
B
A
S
I
C
The interpretation of the Marraquesh
Accords at present preclude, in practice,
the implementation of large-scale CDM
project activities on the grounds that they
are not able to demonstrate financial or
investment additionality, or that they are
based on governmental policies.
B
A
S
I
C
Further guidance is needed from the
Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol, indicating that large projects
(e.g. those involving the increase in the
use of renewables, or the redesign of
transportation)
B
A
S
I
C
Such guidance would make it easier for
Parties included in Annex I of the
Convention to accept deeper cuts in
emissions in the post-2012.
They would pave the way for Parties not
included in Annex I of the Convention to
see the benefits of adopting limits to
emissions on a scale larger than that of
simple projects.
B
A
S
I
C
There is a danger that, if COP-11 does
not make progress in reforming the CDM,
the compliance with Kyoto targets by
Annex I Parties will be done with use of
the emissions trading mechanism under
the Protocol, without a real contribution to
mitigating climate change – simply using
the slack available in Russia and Ukraine.
B
A
S
I
C
At present, the existence of the CDM is a
powerful factor in engaging the private
sector in support of government policies
to mitigate climate change. A signal from
COP-11 in a direction different from
enlarging the CDM may reverse this
support.
B
A
S
I
C
At present, the existence of the CDM is a
powerful factor in engaging the private
sector in support of government policies
to mitigate climate change. A signal from
COP-11 in a direction different from
enlarging the CDM may reverse this
support.
B
A
S
I
C