Transcript South Africa - Colby College

South Africa
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Population: 42,718,530
Estimated population growth rate: -0.25% (2004
est.)
land area total: 1,219,912 sq km
slightly less than twice the size of Texas
Republic government
Economy
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Economy overview: South Africa is a middle-income
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Has an abundant supply of natural resources
well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors
modern infrastructure --efficient distribution of goods to major urban centers
growth has not been strong enough to lower South Africa's high unemployment rate
economic problems remain from the apartheid era, especially poverty and lack of economic empowerment among
the disadvantaged groups.
High crime and HIV/AIDS infection rates also deter investment
GDP real growth rate: 1.9% (2003 est.)
GDP per capita: purchasing power parity- $10,700 (2003 est.)
GDP composition by sector: agriculture 3.8%, industry 31%, services 65.2% (2003)
Labor force by occupation: agriculture 30%, industry 25%, services 45% (1999 est.)
Unemployment rate: 31% (2003 est.)
Population below the poverty line: 50% (2000 est)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
lowest 10%: 1.1%
highest 10%: 45.9% (1994)
South Africa’s Natural Characteristics
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Climate: mostly semiarid; subtropical along east coast
Terrain: vast interior plateau rimmed by rugged hills and narrow coastal plane
Land use:
arable land 12.08%
permanent crops: 0.79%
other: 87.13% (2001)
Natural Hazards: prolonged droughts
Environmental Isues: lack of rivers or lakes, requires extensive water conservation and control
measures; growth in water usage outpacing supply; water & air pollution
Southern Africa vs. NCWE Africa
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Africa has the lowest carbon emissions from fossil fuels than any other continent
Africa makes up 3% of world emissions. 3.8% of world coal consumption, 3.4% of oil, 2.4% natural gas, 2.4% of
hydroelectricity
Emissions are growing rapidly, but from a very small base
Since 1980, real GDP has increased much faster in southern Africa than in all other areas
“Since 1970, South Africa and Egypt have consumed the most energy per dollar of GDP among major energy
consumers in Africa”
per capita commercial energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions tend to be highest in South
Africa because of reliance on coal (carbon intensive)
Energy intensity and per capita energy consumption and carbon emissions are also highest in africa
South Africa accounts for half of Africa’s energy-related carbon emmissions
99% coal output is in southern Africa, 96% from South Africa
Southern Africa relies heavily on coal (68%), the rest of Africa relies more on oil (60%)
Natural gas is produced in N Africa, Oil in NWCS Africa
South Africa is the only country with nuclear power production, only accounts for 1% of Africa’s energy demand
South Africa has a relatively high energy intensity compared to other African countries because it is more
industrialized
Southern Africa is a net exporter of coal and oil
In Africa “in 1997, five countries (South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, and Libya) accounted for 78% of all energy
consumption.”
Emissions
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Need further research in industrial & transportation sectors for possible CDM projects
Waste management & mining have not been investigated yet
1990 347.3 MtCO2 1994 379.8 MtCO2
CO2 accounts for 80% of total GHG emissions, mostly from the energy sector
High energy intensity of the South African economy
Emissions come from: high energy extraction & processing of minerals, reliance on coal-fired
generation of electricity, coal-to-oil conversion
Methane emissions from agriculture (livestock largest contributor), energy, and waste
South Africa’s Position
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Ratify the Kyoto Protocol
Promote sustainable development and the implementation of policies that mitigate
climate change from anthropogenic sources
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“National sustainable strategies should integrate more fully climate change
objectives in key areas such as water, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity.”
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Recognize common but differentiated responsibility and “should continue to
advance their responsibilities under the Convention.”
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Adaptation is a high priority. Developing countries need capacity-building and a
strengthening of the Marrakech Accord
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Increased technology transfer through “concrete projects”
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“Access should be improved to reliable, affordable, economically viable, socially
acceptable and environmentally sound energy services and resources.”
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Need to diversify energy supply by developing cleaner, more efficient and costeffective energy technologies, including fossil-fuels technologies and renewable
energy.”
According to Moosa, the Minister okf Environmental Affairs and Tourism, “…stronger
mitigation efforts (are needed) in the North to reduce the impacts and the cost of
adaptation in the South.”
“…energy-oriented solutions ought to be central to the long-term sustainability of
greenhouse-gas stabilisation.”
Government on Climate Change
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National Climate Change Department: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
UNFCCC ratified 1997, Kyoto Protocol ratified July 2002, member of G77
Climate Change Response Strategy (approved Sept. 2004 by cabinet, launchedOct. 2004)
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Government Committee on Climate Change, GCCC
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Advises the directorate of climate change and ozone layer protection on climate change responsibilites under the KP and
UNFCC
Made up of people from all different departments, including agriculture, foreign affars, health, trade and industry,
transport, local and provincial government…
National Committee on Climate Change, NCCC
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Framework on how South Africa will deal with climate change
2005/6 will investigate sector-specific options, concentrating on developing sector specific adaptation and mitigation
plans.
Public awareness, climate change schools competitions since 2002 gr
Advises the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism on climate change responsibilities under the KP and
UNFCCC
Create an agenda/timetable, make recommendations after considering concerns of stakeholders, design and participate
in national climate change policy and implementation, propose studies on CC, communicate developments, make
subcommittees, assist capacity building and technology transfer
Carbon sinks through afforestation, net uptake of CO2 from afforestation is increasing
Action Plan of the Environment Initiative of the New partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD)
July 2003— “promotes Africa’s sustainabel development and assist the regions to confront its short
term economic growth challenges without losing sight of the long-term environmental, poverty
eradication and social development imperatives.” includes several environmental programs
including one on climate change. Policy by the African Union (AU)
Emissions
projections
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If status quo maintained in energy usage &
production methods
“business as usual”
CDM Opportunity
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At a reasonable cost, emissions reductions projects
can reduce 5% of the current GHG emissions,
according to mitigation studies.
Better opportunity for institutional investors such as
the World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund
More detailed investigation into specific projects
would reveal more possible options for emission
reductions
Picture (right) is a list of some possible CDM
projects that are possible mitigation options and the
costs/ton CO2 have been researched. (but wether
switching to nuclear energy for electricity generation
is an acceptable project is questionable and there is
the question of additionality and how different
projects affect the effectiveness of others is
debatable)
South Africa will be a small player in the market for
CDM and projects will have to be supplied at a
relatively lower price compared to China or India.
Abatement Costs for CDM
 Graphed below are the costs relative to the MtCO2 abated/yr of a number of CDM
projects, not including questionable ones such as those using nuclear energy
 For successful CDM projects, you need:
 policy and regulation that supports national development,
 capacity building activities- awareness, technology, institutions & management, industrial
support, “labor and government to create an ‘enabling environment’ for CDM projects”
 institutions for management and efficiency
 Active government support
Bibliograph
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http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/envext.nsf/46ByDocName/bSouthAfricabSouthAfricanNationa
lStrategyStudyontheCleanDevelopmentMechanismExecutiveSummary/$FILE/SouthAfricanNSSon
theCDM2002execsummary.pdf
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/archives/africa/chapter2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/archives/africa/africa.html
http://unfccc.int/2860.php
http://www.environment.gov.za
http://www.iisd.org
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/