Transcript Climate change

The Politics of Climate Change
Climate change
What prevents the international community from
responding effectively to climate change?
4/16/2008
Hans Peter Schmitz
Climate change –policy options
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Is global warming taking place?
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Is human activity contributing to climate change?
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Yes
Yes
Should we spent resources on mitigating climate
change or on coping with it?
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For mitigation: only ‘real’ solution is a total turnaround
For adaptation: less expensive/takes advantage of
economic and technological progress
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Unresolved questions?
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What is undisputed: Human activity has
increased the level of atmospheric carbon
dioxide (C02) concentration.
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What is disputed:
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How important is human activity for climate change?
How should we deal with it (combating or coping)?
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Who should pay for climate change measures?
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Skeptics
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Is CO2 really the main culprit for climate
change?
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Is there a linear relationship between increasing C02
levels and warming?
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How does the trapping capacity change with rising levels?
What happened in the Earth’s past when C02 levels
were high (due to volcanic activities, etc.)?
What else affects climate change?
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Examples: Sun cycles, cosmic radiation, sea currents…
Hans Peter Schmitz
Global response
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1950s: First scientific evidence for human
role in increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs).
1985-87: UN Climate Change conferences.
1988: Canada demands a 20 per cent
reduction of C02 emissions below 1988
levels by 2005.
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Scientific evidence
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1988: Creation of the Intergovernmental
Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, membership:
more than 2,000 scientists).
1992: Adoption of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).
 Voluntary commitment by developed nations
(Annex I) to return to 1990 emission levels by
2000.
1994: UNFCC comes into force.
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Kyoto Protocol
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Mandates an average of 5% reduction by 2012
below 1990 levels.
 Decrease: 8% European Union; 7% US; 6%
Canada/Japan; 0% Russia/New Zealand;
No agreement on non-Annex-I countries.
Implementation:
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lower emissions,
enhance “sinks” (carbon sequestration; grow forests),
emissions trading with other Annex I states;
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Bush Administration
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2005: Kyoto comes into force after Russia signs on in late
2004 (55% of the Annex I countries needed).
Federal government/Bush administration
 Kyoto protocol harmful to US economic interests.
 disputes scientific evidence for climate change.
 Wants all countries to reduce GHGs.
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Private sector and local levels
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Local levels and private sector
State and city initiatives to decrease ‘carbon footprint’
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NGOs and MNCs: Private Sector Initiatives
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Insurance companies (Swiss Re)
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Explaining failure
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Why has Kyoto failed?
 US power and domestic interests
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Collective action problem
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Failure of Kyoto to include developing nations
Incentives for free-riding
Science
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Powerful domestic business lobby/consumer resistance
Link between rising carbon dioxide and temperature levels?
Is mitigation or adaptation the appropriate response?
Technology
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Alternatives to fossil fuels are not readily available
Hans Peter Schmitz
Theories of IR
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Neo-Realism: self-interested resource exploitation
 The issue is not yet a national security problem.
Countries should pursue their autonomous strategies.
Neo-liberal Institutionalism: collective action problem
 The issue is a typical collective action problem requiring
coordination among states.
 Domestic business interests (in the US) prevail over
environmental activists.
Idealism/Constructivism: global governance
 The environment is a global challenge to the nation state.
Climate requires the creation of a world government.
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Hans Peter Schmitz
Nuclear energy?
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Is nuclear energy the solution?
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Realism: YES
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Institutionalism: YES
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The major long-term concern is dependency (on oil).
Peaceful use of nuclear energy will contribute to
economic growth and inter-state cooperation.
Idealism/Identity: YES/NO
Yes: Climate change requires immediate response.
 No: Nuclear energy is unsafe and environmentally
destructive (no safeHans
disposal
policy for waste).
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Peter Schmitz
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