Transcript PNC_JHYOO - Pacific Neighborhood Consortium

Moving from Climate Information to
Climate Knowledge
Climate Change Knowledge Asset Session
Pacific Neighborhood Consortium
Annual meeting
Asia
City University of Hong Kong, December 1 2010
PEconomic
acific
Cooperation
Climate
Center
Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera
APEC Climate Center
APEC Climate Center
Presentation Outline
■ The Climate System, Climate Information
and Climate Knowledge
■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge
Production
■ APEC Climate Center and its response
APEC Climate Center
Numerous information on Climate Change
APEC Climate Center
People say,
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Do what? : Decision making before action
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Basis of decision making
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Climate change information and its application
Knowledge
Data
Information
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Climate Knowledge
• Interpretation of information
• Requires understanding and insight
• Developed based on experiences and
best practices
• Produced with the intent of being useful
APEC Climate Center
A few examples
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
 Outlooks
 Forecasts
 Monitoring and
prediction maps
 Flood and
drought bulletins
 Technical reports
 Wikis
 Decision-support
tools
 Best practices
 Early Warning and
risk management
system
APEC Climate Center
Presentation Outline
■ The Climate System, Climate Information
and Climate Knowledge
■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge
Production
■ APEC Climate Center and its response
APEC Climate Center
Climate change information and its application
APEC Climate Center
Uncertainty in Climate information
Headlines following the 2013 publication of the AR5 Report
may look like this:
Trenberth (2010) warns that the improvements in models in IPCC AR5 may
yield more uncertainty because of more factors and patterns of interactions
considered.
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“Unknown unknowns”
"Reports that say that something hasn't
happened are always interesting to me,
because as we know, there are known
knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns;
that is to say we know there are some things
we do not know. But there are also
unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't
know we don't know."
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Climate and Climate Knowledge
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Uncertainty in Decision-making (Morgan et al 2009)
Climate system is a complex, interactive and dynamic system
Kinds of uncertainty
1. Random and systematic errors in measurement
2. Probability distributions from expert elicitation
3. Ignorance – the “(monstrously large) blindspots”
Methods for estimating uncertainty
1.Model-generated uncertainty estimates
2.Expert elicitation
A few notes:
 Decisions under uncertainty are made all the time by individuals, firms
and businesses, governments, etc.
 What is important is to accurately characterize and communicate
uncertainty (i.e. avoiding use of subjective language such as likely,
unlikely, etc.)
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Importance of Two-way Communication Channels
Current ways of communication between producers and
users:
 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
 Boundary organizations (IRI, CSIRO, CIIFEN)
 Lugon (2010) identifies examples and best practices
Some points:
 Communication is still ad hoc
 Regular, institutionalized interface with users is still not
common in RCCs and NHMSs
 GFCS to create a roadmap on how interface can be done
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Importance of Two-way Communication Channels
Some important questions that need to be addressed:
1.What are the information and knowledge needs of various sectors?
2.At what temporal and spatial scales would information be useful?
3.How available are climate forecasts in decision-making?
4.What is actionable climate information? (build up knowledge)
These questions will only be addressed with open communication
and collaboration between producers and users.
Desired end-results:
 Co-production of knowledge among producers and users
 Feedback loops that inform producers on what kind of
information is needed
 Climate information products that are tailor-fit to various users.
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Technology and Knowledge Production
Uses of technology in knowledge production
1.Communication platform - Internet as a collaboration tool
- Wikis and social networking websites allow for the updating of
knowledge in real time and more and faster learning (i.e.
weAdapt.org)
- Online tools allow sharing of knowledge and ability to work
together (i.e. Mendeley, Lotus Notes, Adobe Buzzword, etc.)
dynamism, update our knowledge in real time, learn from
others experiences
- Email discussion lists and web forums allow for real-time
interaction among scientists, adaptation specialists,
development workers, etc.
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Technology and Knowledge Production
2. Data access and services
- Databases for storing vast amounts of data (PCMDI)
- Google Earth layers
- Software and decision-support tools
APCC’s CLIK, IRI’s CPT and others
Climate science and adaptation require fast action. Hence
knowledge exchange is crucial, particularly as the gaps in our
knowledge are filled through experiences learned on the ground and
not theory.
Availability of technology should not undermine the value of
interpersonal communication
APEC Climate Center
Presentation Outline
■ The Climate System, Climate Information
and Climate Knowledge
■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge
Production
■ APEC Climate Center and its response
APEC Climate Center
APEC Climate Center
 Bring economies
together to discuss ways
and do things to enhance
economic well being of
member nations through
better utilization of climate
information
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Sharing of High-Cost Climate Information
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APCC activities
 Global climate forecast collected from 17 institutes
issue Monthly rolling 3-month MME climate forecast
 Researches on intraseasonal to decadal prediction and
climate change projection
 International Collaborations and Outreach activity
···
···
MME Climate Forecast
Joint Research
Production, Analysis,
& Dissemination
International
Collaboration
Climate Monitoring
Outreach & Training Program
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Monthly update of climate prediction
Day of the
month
Activity
1~10
11~15
Standardization
Data collection
& quality check
16~21
22~23
Analysis and
production
Outlook release
& upload to
website
www.apcc21.org
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APCC Activities
APCC’s modest efforts to respond to challenges and operate in the said context:
 APEC Climate Symposium
- 2010 Forum on Disaster Preparedness
- 2011 theme on agriculture, water resource management and energy
efficiency
 CLIK (Climate Information Toolkit)
- Currently most of the users are NHMSs
- Find ways of how CLIK can be marketed to and used by adaptation sector
and decision-makers
 Virtual Center
- Publish contributed articles centering on how climate information and
research can be used by different sectors (public health, marine resource
conservation, urban planning, water resource management, energy
efficiency, tourism, etc.)
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Capacity building: interactive service tools
http://clik.apcc21.net
•AFS : Automated Forecast System/ CMS : Climate Monitoring System/ DFT: Downscale Forecast Tool
•ADSS : APEC Climate Center Data Service System
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APCC Activities
 Survey on Using Climate Information for Disaster
Preparedness
- Conducted in 2010 together with the APEC Emergency
Preparedness Working Group
 Networking
- Improved collaboration across institutions and APEC fora:
Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group, Energy
Working Group, Climate Change and Sustainable
Development Working Group, Fisheries Working Group,
Marine Resource Conservation Working Group
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APCC Activities
Planned activities and projects:
 Collaboration with University of Aizu in developing tools and ITbased climate information and knowledge products
- MOU signed last November 19, 2010
- commence projects in early 2011
 Commence research on climate change and application for 2011
- Active recruitment of scientists with specialization on climate
change and climate information application
- Increased funding for climate change research
- more interdisciplinary studies with experts in socioeconomic sectors
 Development of communications strategy
- Examine accessibility of our products (language used in 3-month
seasonal outlook, written descriptions for maps, explanations of
variables, links to important resources)
- Map out profile of current and prospective users
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Thank You.
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References and Resources
Castree, Noel. 2010. Review of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data and the Politics of Global Warming by Paul N.
Edwards. American Scientist. The American Scientist. Available at http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/how-we-makeknowledge-about-climate-change (accessed November 3, 2010).
Goddard, Lisa, Youcef Aitchellouche, Walter Baethgen, Michael Dettinger, Richard Graham, Peter Hayman, Mohammed Kadi,
Rodney Martinez and Holger Meinke. 2009. Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and
Decision Making. White Paper for the Third World Climate Conference, Geneva.
http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/sessionsdb/documents/WS3_WP_needs.doc (accessed November 3, 2010).
Lugon, Ralph. Climate information for decision-making: lessons learned from effective user-provider communication schemes. 2010.
Technical report for a one-year project of Graduate Institute Centre for International Governance.
http://graduateinstitute.ch/webdav/site/cig/shared/CIG/climate/Report%20%20Climate%20Information/Climate%20Information%20for%20Decision%20Making%20Report.pdf (accessed November 3,2010).
Meinke, Holger, Rohan Nelson, Phil Kokic, Roger Stone, Ramasamy Selvaraju and Walter Baethgen. 2006. Actionable climate
knowledge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 101-110.
Morgan, M. Granger, Hadi, Dowlatabadi, Max Henrion, David Keith, Robert Lempert, Sandra McBride, Mitchell Small and Thomas
Willibanks. 2009. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate
Decision Making. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/sap5-2-final-reportall.pdf (accessed November 26, 2010).
Shackley, Simon and Brian Wynne. 1995. Integrating knowledges for climate change: Pyramids, nets and uncertainties. Global
Environmental Change 5, no. 2: 113-126.
Trenberth, Kevin. 2010. More Knowledge, Less Certainty. Commentary in Nature Reports Climate Change 4. Published online.
http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.06.html
Vogel, Coleen and Karen O’Brien. 2006. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and
regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 111-122.
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