Transcript Climate Change

Teaching the
Science of
Climate Change
PART 2
This ppt available on
www.vicphysics.org
- Teachers
Please read the Notes pages for more info
Keith Burrows
AIP Education Committee
STAVCON November 2007
Human induced changes
 How can we understand it?
– Computer models are the only way of taking all
this into account.
– Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat,
air, water, between small blocks of the
atmosphere.
– Here’s the basic physics:
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– These are just F = ma
applied to moving fluids
– This is conservation of
mass
– This governs the way
heat flows between
systems
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The climate system is modelled
as cells of air (or water) and the
equations are applied to see
how much air/heat flows
between each pair of cells
– This is repeated all around the
Earth
– The models have improved by
making the cells smaller
– They are now about 110 km
square by 1 km high
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The initial conditions have to be fed into the
model and then it generates weather and climate
patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!
– Here is the result of one:
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– Models are tested to see if they generate past
known climate patterns.
– They are becoming more and more accurate.
over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or
centuries!
– Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed
 The science of climate change
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
Report which contains the most detailed and
worrying predictions yet.
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
Report which contains the most detailed and
worrying predictions yet.
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The following diagrams are taken from the
AR4 Synthesis Report
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between emr and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– We have to reduce them but we are extremely
dependant on them
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– Cutting car use has to
be a priority
ABS
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport – maybe these?
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport – certainly these
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– These are a problem!
What can we do?
 Reduce energy
use
– This could be
fun. Maybe we
need to be a bit
more relaxed
about getting
places!
What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
– Sequestration of CO2 from power stations - ?
– More efficient coal stations
– Combined cycle gas generators
What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
– Nuclear ?
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
60 kilowatt (10 year ago)
1300 kilowatt now
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
We make per day about:
5 – 10 kWh
Feed in to grid about
4 – 6 kWh
Draw from grid about
2 – 3 kWh
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
Gas used for hot water
since installation a
month ago:
NONE at all
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’
– Potentially very large resources
– (get pic!)
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– The ‘base load problem’?
– We are no where near having that problem yet!
Spot the
renewables!
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – base load?
– Wide distribution of sources evens out the load
– Linking them is not as difficult as we are told
– Solar feeds power in at peak use time
– Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)
– Other storage options possible in future
– HVDC
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– High Voltage DC transmission
– Basslink provides peak and stores excess
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– Making big difference to long
distance transmission
– Carries twice the power
– Can go 1000’s of km
(AC < 1000 km)
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– High power high voltage semiconductors have
made the difference
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– Area needed
to collect ALL
of Australia’s
energy use.
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
Where are
the solar
collectors?
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
This is in sunny Germany!
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
We have to get away from this
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
To this
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between emr and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
Talks of “Alarmist of the Year
Tim Flannery” flying around the
world, then has a go at the UN
Climate Change conference in
Bali next month where 12000
people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is
too small a word for so
monstrous a circus. If it wasn't
for the fact the planet actually
hasn't warmed for nine years
now, I'd cry.”
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– “We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…
The human response
 Change the light bulbs
– Yes, and turn down the thermostat,
– but that is a very tiny start
The human response
 The need for real change
– It will cost
– But many jobs could be created
– It will cost much more if we don’t start now
But remember them?
Education
 That’s where we come in
– The science leads to understanding
– The need for optimism
 This ppt can be downloaded from
www.vicphysics.org – Teachers
- Feedback:
- [email protected]
- Resources:
realclimate.org
$1
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between emr and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in