Transcript 2.08 MB

Reporting Climate Change
– the Front Line
Richard Black
Environment Correspondent
BBC News
Climate whinges
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The public doesn’t get it
The politicians don’t get it
The media don’t get it
Because of the media, the public doesn’t
get it
• Because of the media, the public doesn’t
get it so the politicians don’t give a damn
• They’ve got a sceptic on again
Democracy 101
The Fourth Estate
“… there are Three Estates in Parliament; but, in
the Reporters' Gallery yonder, there sits a
Fourth Estate more important than they all …
Printing, which comes necessarily out of
Writing, is equivalent to Democracy … Whoever
can speak, speaking now to the whole nation,
becomes a power, a branch of government …”
The media reality
• Privately-owned
– Profit-led
– Volume-led, not quality-led
– Largely un-regulated
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Puts novelty above depth, style above substance
Edited by generalists
Tailored to “consumers’ tastes”
Ultra-responsive to competitors
Herd-like, predictable and spoon-fed
Pitching stories
• New study says we’re all going to die
• We did ‘we’re all going to die last week’ … any
more of us, or in more horrible ways?
• New study says polar bears are going to die
• Last week it was pandas, who gives a crap?
• Government’s not doing what it promised
• So what’s new?
• Government isn’t promising what it ought
to be promising
• Who says so and who cares?
Choices, choices …
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Hansen et al. 2005
Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T. Tovakov, Ju. Perlwitz, G.
Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N. Tauusnev 2005. Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science,
doi:10.1126/science.1110252.
Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols among other forcings, calculates that Earth
is now absorbing 0.85±0.15 W/m2 more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise
measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include: (i) expectation of additional global warming
of about 0.6°C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings,
implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet
disintegration and sea level rise.
The media reality
News is a product, not a service
“Journalism is not a profession or a trade. It
is a cheap catch-all for fuckoffs and misfits, a
false doorway to the backside of life, a filthy
piss-ridden little hole nailed off by the building
inspector, but just deep enough for a wino to
curl up from the side-walk and masturbate
like a chimp in a zoo cage.”
Buying the news product
Top five selling newspapers in the United States – 2004
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USA Today – 2.6m
Wall Street Journal – 1.8m
New York Times – 1.7m
Los Angeles Times – 1.4m
Washington Post – 1.0m
World Association of Newspapers
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National Enquirer – 1.7m
National Enquirer figures
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US population – 295.7m
CIA - 2005
How many people are not reading a newspaper AT ALL?????
Democracy 102
Does the public get it?
• UK poll by YouGov for WWF
• March 2005
– In run-up to general election but before
election formally announced
• 1999 adults
– Online polling
Does the public get it?
• Do you follow the issue closely?
– 55% ‘closely’ or ‘fairly closely’
• Who bears the most responsibility?
– US government
– Individual actions
– Large companies
39%
21%
14%
Does the public get it?
• Are you worried about weather changes impacting
the UK, or sceptical about the science?
– 69% worried
– 15% ‘sceptical about science’
• In the future will climate change cause the UK to
experience
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More
More
More
More
floods?
storms?
drought?
uncertainty?
75%
58%
39%
71%
Does the public get it?
• Would you support the following actions:
– Tough standards on industry
– Tax rebates for energy-efficient homes
– More govt. funding for renewables
– Tougher building regulations
93%
83%
85%
92%
– Increasing fuel & energy prices
16%
Does the public get it?
• MORI Political Monitor February 2005
– 1948 adults face-to-face
• What is the most important issue facing Britain
today?
– Pollution/environment 2%
– Race/immigration 23%, health/hospitals 13%,
defence/foreign affairs/terrorism 13%
• What are other important issues facing Britain
today?
– Pollution/environment 6%
Swinging the mood
MORI – Preferred Action on Climate Change
- 1999, repeated 2004, in UK & US
“As you may know, scientists are uncertain how much
impact human activities have on the world's climate.
Some people say we should not take major action to reduce
human impacts on climate until we know more, because of
the great economic costs involved.
Other people say we should assume the worst and take
major action now to reduce human impacts on climate,
even if there are major costs.”
Swinging the mood
• 1999 results – percentage answering
“Assume the worst, take action now”
– UK 63%
– US 48%
Swinging the mood
• UK …
– “the single most important long-term issue that we face
as a global community” – Tony Blair
– “more serious threat than terrorism” – Sir David King,
government Chief Scientist
– a ‘priority’ for the UK G8 presidency – Tony Blair
– 3 serious flooding incidents
– EU emissions trading scheme initiated
– UK ‘failures’ well-documented in media
Swinging the mood
• US …
– Kyoto treaty “fatally flawed” George W Bush – subsequent
withdrawal
– effective and vocal ‘sceptics’ lobby
– “A piecemeal approach to climate observations and climate
science will not provide the data needed to form the
foundation to make sound economic decisions in a nation as
large as ours and in other nations around the world.” Conrad
Lautenbacher, Earth Observation Summit
– “We must always act to ensure continued economic growth
and prosperity for our citizens and for citizens throughout the
world.” George W Bush
Swinging the mood
• 1999 results – percentage answering
“Assume the worst, take action now”
– UK 63%
– US 48%
• 2004 results – percentage answering
“Assume the worst, take action now”
– UK 63%
– US 46%
Shock and Awe
Shock and Awe
Subjective probability of climate change before and after viewing The Day
After Tomorrow
Reusswig et al
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Shock and Awe
Can mankind still hold back climate change?
Reusswig et al
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Climate campaigning
The classical method …
• “First, prepare your arguments, drawing out the most emotional
warnings
– second, spread those messages so people take action - sign
petitions, join groups, pressure the government and
corporations, join protests
– third, mix in some visible direct action to create a media buzz what Greenpeace likes to call ‘global opera’.”
• “For fifteen years, environmental activists, myself included, have
been pursuing this tried-and-tested model. Our call to action has
been made against a backdrop of serious warnings from scientists.
And yet there is still no vocal mass movement against climate
change in any country. Where are we going wrong?”
George Marshall, Rising Tide
Climate campaigning
“Because of the long time-frames involved, trying to
convert it into something which people see as an issue now
is very difficult. And I think that is one of the key issues
for policy-makers and campaigners – how to create a
message which has relevance for people today, rather
making it relevant to them in the future, which is always
going to be harder in terms of getting them to take action
of whatever sort.”
Mike Everett Managing Director MORI UK
Climate initiatives
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Norway’s carbon tax
US north-eastern states
California car emissions
Iceland hydrogen economy
New Zealand carbon tax
UK ‘dash for gas’
Germany’s industry after re-unification
London’s congestion charge
Iceland
• Objective: eliminate fossil fuel use by
2030/2040
• Historically low fossil-fuel use
– Geothermal provides 50% of primary energy
– Hydro provides 85% of electricity generation
– Substantial emissions from industry
• 70% of national income from fishing
• Some electrolysis for fertiliser
Iceland
• Hydrogen powered buses on Reykavik streets and
filling station operational
• Obstacles:
– Short-term costs
– Technology bottle-necks eg hydrogen storage
– Scaling up for fishing fleet
• Benefits:
– Test-bed for new technology = investment
– Cost-saving
– Hydrogen exporter
New Zealand
• Introducing carbon tax in 2007 driven by
Kyoto commitment
• Expected to add ~NZ$4 to average bill for
petrol, electricity, etc
• Revenues to be ‘recycled’
• Will not apply to NZ largest emissions
sector, methane from agriculture
• May resolve into emissions trading
New Zealand
• Opposed by business groups – “will harm
international competitiveness” (Business
Roundtable executive director Roger Kerr)
• Methane exemption secured after protests
by farmers – campaign group ‘Fight Against
Ridiculous Taxes’
• Carbon tax not registering as election issue
• Climate may not be top environmental issue
UK ‘Dash for Gas’
UK ‘Dash for Gas’
• Began in 1980s
• Driven by:
– Opportunity – discovery of North Sea reserves
– Economics – gas cheaper than coal
– Political dispute with coal-miners
• Nothing to do with climate change
UK ‘Dash for Gas’
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Gas and coal usage now equal
Sharp decrease in emissions c.1990
End of miners as a political force
Allowed UK to accept stiff target under
Kyoto – 12.5%
• Blair – international statesman
• But … the era is ending … CO2 rising …
Democracy 103
Which targets?
• “Think globally, act locally”
Rene Dubos, advisor to the UN Conference
on the Human Environment, 1972
• “There are only five thousand people in the
world, and only two of them are Chinese.”
Paul Theroux, Half-Moon Street, 1984
• “Only push at doors which will open”
Richard Black, Washington 2005
Pitching stories
• Big new science with sexy angle
• climateprediction.net
• Iconic species
• polar bears, pandas – not bacteria
• Political ramifications
• Local, national or international – timing is all
• Genuinely new issue
• Ocean acidity, legal challenges, carbon calculators
• Talking points
• Phil Space and Phillippa Programme head to head
Real life story 1
Cardiff Gets Climate Change Warning
The Millennium Stadium is surrounded by water, train lines and
city centre roads are submerged and shops are closed because
of water damage. This is the Cardiff of the future if climate
change is not addressed, according to the environmental
charity WWF at a campaign launch.
The "Stop Climate Chaos" campaign is backed by weather
presenter Sian Lloyd. "If climate change is left unaddressed it
will not only have global consequences but it will also have a
significant impact on Wales," she said.
Real life story 2
Wolves Mitigate Climate Change
By Rossella Lorenzi, Discovery News
April 1, 2005 — Gray wolves play a crucial
role in easing the effects of climate change
on wildlife, according to a new study on
animals at Yellowstone National Park.
Real life story 3
Climate change could sour US maple
sugaring
By Christa Farrand Case | Correspondent of The Christian
Science Monitor
Don Harlow, who makes maple syrup in Vermont, listens for a
leak in a vacuum line. Some researchers believe climate
change may cause syrup production to shift north to Canada.
What message?
• “Climate change is definitely happening, humans are
definitely the cause and if we don’t stop it there will be a
global disaster of Biblical proportions.”
• “There is little doubt now that humans are altering the
climate. We’re not entirely sure what the final impacts will
be, but acting now would certainly be the wise thing to do.”
• “Depending on how we parameterise the models and what
anthropogenic forcings we use, the projections for the
thermohaline circulation in 2100 show variable degrees of
diminution.”
• “I can tell you the results of our experiment, but wouldn’t like
to speculate on the implications.”
Conclusions …
• The virtuous cycle between scientists, media, the
public and policymakers is unlikely to work as you
would want it to. But …
• … it probably doesn’t matter
• Don’t blame the public for setting different priorities
from the ones you would set
• The media is shallow and frivolous – however, you
can come to use it effectively. But …
• Do not leave the high ground of scientific objectivity