Transcript Climate Change - NSTA Learning Center

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Global Climate Change
Impacts in the Eastern
United States
Presented by Tim Owen, Frank Niepold,
and Peg Steffen
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAST?
TIM OWEN
NOAA’s NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
Eastern U.S. – Northeast/Southeast
Presentation Outline
PART ONE:
What’s Going On With the Climate in the Eastern U.S.?
PART TWO:
What are the Impacts?
PART THREE:
What Can We Do About It?
What’s Going On?
PART ONE
Which of the following terms have you heard
about and understand?
[Place clip art on the continuum below]
Climate Change
Climate Variability
Global Warming
What is your perception of how the climate
has changed where you live over the past
30 years?
A. Much Warmer
B. Warmer
C. No Change
D. Cooler
E. Much Cooler
Change variability and change
Climate Variability: Natural changes in
climate falling in the normal range of
extremes for a particular region. Drivers
of climate variability include the El Niño
Southern Oscillation and other
phenomena.
Climate Change: A significant and
persistent change in the mean state of
the climate or its variability. Drivers
include regular changes in Earth’s orbit
about the sun, re-arrangement of
continents through plate tectonic
motions, or anthropogenic modification
of the atmosphere.
Global warming
Global Warming: The
observed increase in
average temperature
near the Earth’s surface
and in the lowest layer
of the atmosphere.
Global warming is a
type of climate change;
it can also lead to other
changes in climate
conditions, such as
changes in precipitation
patterns.
The world is getting warmer…
Observed Temperature Change
1880-2007
… and further warming is likely
The U.S. is getting warmer and slightly wetter
… with an uptick of extreme events
INCREASES in…
Air and water temperatures
Frequency of heavy downpours
Intensity of heavy downpours
Sea level
DECREASES in…
Frost days
Snow cover
Glaciers and permafrost
Sea ice
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:
Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970
Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpours
Decrease in precipitation falling as snow
SOUTHEAST:
Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970
Seasonal changes in precipitation (e.g., 30% increase in Fall,
decrease in summer)
Increase in heavy downpours and drought coverage
Increase in power of Atlantic hurricanes since 1970
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:
Average annual temperature increase of 2oF since 1970
Increase in warm days, longer growing season, downpours
Decrease in precipitation falling as snow
In the Eastern United States…
SOUTHEAST:
Average annual
temperature increase of 2oF
since 1970
Seasonal changes in
precipitation (e.g., 30%
increase in Fall, decrease in
summer)
Increase in heavy
downpours and drought
coverage
Increase in power of
Atlantic hurricanes since
1970
Let’s Pause Two Minutes
for Questions from the
Audience
What are the Impacts?
PART TWO
In the Eastern United States…
NORTHEAST:
Increasing health risks from extreme heat and declining air quality
Adverse impact on production of milk, fruits, and maple syrup
More frequent flooding from sea-level rise, storm surge, and heavy
downpours
Adverse impact on winter recreation, and lobster
and cod fisheries
Coastal inundation impact…New York
In the Eastern United States…
SOUTHEAST:
Increases in air/water temperatures stress people, plants/animals
Decreased water availability is very likely to affect the economy
and natural systems
Sea-level rise and increases in hurricane intensity and storm surge
cause serious impacts
Ecosystem thresholds crossed, leading to natural disruptions
Severe weather events and reduced availability of insurance
Coastal inundation impact…Louisiana
Infrastructure impact…Gulf Coast
Poll Question
How significant do you think climate change impacts will be
on ecosystems in the Eastern U.S. over the next 50
years?
A) Devastating
B) Significant
C) Noticeable
D) Minimal
What Can We Do About It?
PART THREE
The Choice
“We basically have three choices:
mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.
We’re going to do some of each. The
question is what the mix is going to be.
The more mitigation we do, the less
adaptation will be required and the less
suffering there will be.”
John Holdren
President of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science; Harvard University
Responding to Climate Change
Mitigation: Reducing the amount of climate
change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping
emissions or increasing their removal from the
atmosphere
Adaptation: Improving our ability to cope with or
avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly
favorable conditions
BOTH will be needed.
Adaption case 1
Adaption case 2
Choosing the path
Reality check: where are we now?
Above even the
highest future
scenario
Who is responsible?
The value of climate literacy
Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public
discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science
will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their
everyday conversations as informed citizens.
Days > 100oF: 1961-1979
LOWER
Emissions Scen.
Days > 100oF:
2070-2099
HIGHER
Emissions Scen.
Small things matter
stop using this
start using this
Ultimately we need a
fundamental change
stop using this
start using this
Let’s Pause Two Minutes
for Questions from the
Audience
When do you think global warming will start
to harm people in the United States?
[Place clip art on the continuum below]
They are being
harmed now
In 10 years
In 25 years
In 50 years
In 100 years
Never
Resources 1
Global Climate
Change Impacts in
the United States
What climate change
means for the places
we care about …
PDF & educational
materials free online
at:
www.globalchange.gov/
usimpacts
Resources 2
Climate Change,
Wildlife and
Wildlands
Toolkit for Formal
and Informal
Educators
Helps educators teach
about climate change
impacts and how to
become a “climate
steward”
http://globalchange.gov/res
ources/educators/toolkit/
THE END
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