Transcript Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Climate Change Impacts in
the United States
This section is mainly from: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,
U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
General National Impacts
Key National Climate Impacts
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U.S. average temperature has risen more than 2° F over the past 50 years and is projected
to rise more in the future; how much more depends on the amount of greenhouse gases
emitted globally and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions.
Precipitation has increased an average of about 5% over the past 50 years. Projections of
future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter, and southern
areas, particularly in the West, will become drier.
The amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased about 20% on average in
the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the
wettest places.
Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and regional droughts, have
become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.
The destructive energy of Atlantic hurricanes has increased in recent decades. The intensity
of these storms is likely to increase in this century.
In the eastern Pacific, the strongest hurricanes have become stronger since the 1980s, even
while the total number of storms has decreased.
Sea level has risen along most of the U.S. coast over the last 50 years, and will continue to
rise in the future.
Cold-season storms tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to
become stronger and more frequent.
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly and this will continue.
Temperature Change between 1993-2008 (left),
and projected near term between 2010-2029 (right)
Projected U.S. Temperature Increase (2040-2060)
Projected temperature increases between 2040-2059 and 2080-2099 for higher
emissions scenario (top) and lower emissions scenario (bottom)
U.S. Rainfall Anomaly Jan.-August 2007
Increases in Amounts of Very
Heavy Precipitation (1958-2007)
Change in Hadley Cell Circulation Could Decrease
Winter and Spring Precipitation in the Southwest
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The Hadley Effect: The Hadley Cell
circulation illustrates how rising air in
the superheated tropics descends in
the subtropics. This creates highpressure zones in subtropical regions,
including the U.S. Southwest.
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The area under the Hadley cell’s
descending air is projected to
widen in years to come. As a result,
the jet stream that transports rain
and snow during spring and winter
is expected to move toward the
North pole. Thus winter storms
could enter the western United
States in a more northerly position,
bypassing the Southwest more
often than it currently does.
43% of U.S. in Drought Conditions in Oct.
2007
Fires Are Increasing World-Wide
Wildfires in Western U.S. have increased 4-fold in 30 years.
Western US area burned
Source: Westerling et al. 2006
Water Resources
Key Water Resource Impacts
• Climate change has already altered, and will continue to alter, the water
cycle, affecting where, when and how much water is available for all uses.
• Floods and droughts are likely to become more common and more intense
as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change, and rainfall
becomes more concentrated into heavy events (with longer, hotter dry
periods in between).
• Precipitation and runoff are likely to increase in the Northeast and
Midwest in winter and spring, and decrease in the West especially the
Southwest, in the spring and summer.
• In areas where snowpack dominates, the timing of runoff will continue to
shift to earlier in the spring and flows will be lower in late summer.
• Surface water quality and groundwater quantity will be affected by a
changing climate.
• Climate change will place additional burdens on already stressed water
systems.
• The past century is no longer a reasonable guide to the future for water
management.
Observed Water-Related Changes During the Last Century
Observed Change
Direction of Change
Region Affected
Earlier
West and Northeast
Proportion of precipitation falling as snow
Decreasing
West and Northeast
Duration and extent of snow cover
Decreasing
Most of the U. S.
Mountain snow water equivalent
Decreasing
West
Annual precipitation
Increasing
Most of the U. S.
Annual precipitation
Decreasing
Southwest
Frequency of heavy precipitation events
Increasing
Most of the U. S.
Runoff and streamflow
Decreasing
Colorado and Columbia River Basins
Streamflow
Increasing
Most of East
Amount of ice in mountain glaciers
Decreasing
Western mountains and Alaska
Water temperature of lakes and streams
Increasing
Most of the U. S.
Ice cover on lakes and rivers
Decreasing
Great Lakes and Northeast
Periods of drought
Increasing
Parts of West and East
Salinization of surface waters
Increasing
Florida and Louisiana
Widespread thawing of permafrost
Increasing
Alaska
One to four week earlier peak streamflow due
to earlier warming-driven snowmelt
The Southwest Will Have Less Precipitation
• Using an "ensemble" of 18
global climate models and the
moderate "A1B" emissions
scenario, researchers at the
NOAA Earth System Research
Laboratory (ESRL) predict a
reduction in precipitation
across the Southwest by the
end of the century.
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Credit: Map produced by Jeremy Weiss of the University of
Arizona, using data from Hoerling and Eischeid of NOAA ESRL.
http://www.noaa.gov/
Drought on the Southwest, U.S.
Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy
Precipitation (1958-2007)
Trends in Peak Streamflow Timing
Potential Water Supply Conflicts by 2025
Highlights of Water-related Impacts
by Sector
Sector
Examples of Impacts
Human Health
Heavy downpours increase incidence of waterborne disease and
floods, resulting in potential hazards to human life and health.
Energy Supply and Use
Hydropower production is reduced due to low flows in some
regions. Power generation is reduced in fossil fuel and nuclear
plants due to increased water temperatures and reduced cooling
water availability.
Transportation
Floods and droughts disrupt transportation. Heavy downpours
affect harbor infrastructure and inland waterways. Declining Great
Lakes levels reduce freight capacity.
Agriculture and Forests
Intense precipitation can delay spring planting and damage crops.
Earlier spring snowmelt leads to increased number of forest fires.
High temperatures and flooding decrease food production.
Ecosystems
Coldwater fish threatened by rising water temperatures. Some
warm-water fish will expand ranges.
Energy Supply and Use
Key Energy Supply and Use Impacts
• Warming will be accompanied decreases in demand for
heating energy and increases in demand for cooling energy.
The later will result in significant increases in electricity use
and higher peak demand in most regions.
• Energy production is likely to be constrained by rising
temperatures and limited water supplies in many regions.
• Energy production and delivery systems are exposed to
disruption by sea level rise and extreme weather events in
vulnerable regions.
• Climate change is likely to affect some renewable energy
sources across the nation, such as hydroelectric power
production in regions subject to changing patterns of
precipitation or snowmelt.
Sources of U.S Greenhouse
Gas Emissions (2003)
Primary Energy Consumption by
Major Source (1949-2007)
U. S. Electricity Sources (2007)
Population Change (1970-2008)
Shifting Energy Demand in the U. S.
by 2080-2099.
Significant Weather-related U.S.
Electric Grid Disturbances
Transportation
Key Transportation Impacts
• Sea level rise and storm surge will increase the risk of major coastal
impacts, including both temporary and permanent flooding of airports,
roads, rail lines, and tunnels.
• Flooding from increasingly intense downpours will increase the risk of
disruptions and delays in air, rail and road transportation, and damage
from mudslides in some areas.
• The increase in extreme heat will limit some transportation operations
and cause pavement and track damage. Decreased extreme cold will
provide some benefits such as reduced snow and ice removal costs in
some areas.
• Increased intensity of strong hurricanes would lead to more evacuations,
infrastructure damage and failure, and transportations disruptions.
• Arctic warming will continue to reduce sea ice, lengthening the ocean
transport season, but also resulting in greater coastal erosion due to
waves. Permafrost thaw in Alaska will damage infrastructure. The ice road
season will become shorter.
Agriculture
Key Agriculture Impacts
• Many crops show positive responses to elevated CO2 and low levels of
warming, but higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and
yields.
• Extreme events such as heavy downpours and droughts are likely to
reduce crop yields because excesses or deficits of water have negative
impacts on plant growth.
• Weeds, diseases, and insect pests benefit from warming, and weeds also
benefit from a higher CO2 concentrations, increasing stress on crop plants
and requiring more attention to pest and weed control.
• Forage quality in pastures and rangelands generally declines with
increasing CO2 concentration because of the effects on plant nitrogen and
protein content, reducing the land’s ability to supply adequate livestock
feed.
• Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes are likely to reduce
livestock and agricultural productivity.
Ecosystems
Key Ecosystem Impacts
• Ecosystem processes, such as those that control growth and
decomposition, have been affected by climate change.
• Large-scale shifts have occurred in the ranges of species and the timing of
the seasons and animal migration, and are very likely to continue.
• Fires, insect pests, disease pathogens, and invasive weed species have
increased, and these trends are likely to continue.
• Deserts and drylands are likely to become hotter and drier, feeding a selfreinforcing cycle of invasive plants, fire, and erosion.
• Coastal and near-shore ecosystems are already under multiple stresses.
Climate change and ocean acidification will exacerbate these stresses.
• Arctic sea ice ecosystems are already being adversely affected by the loss
of summer sea ice and further changes are expected.
• The habitats of some mountain species and coldwater fish, such as salmon
and trout, are very likely to contract in response to warming.
• Some of the benefits ecosystems provide to society will be threatened by
climate change, while others will be enhanced.
Butterfly Range Shifts Northward
As the climate warms, many species in the
United States are shifting their ranges northward
and to higher elevations. The map show the
response of Edith’s Checkerspot butterfly
populations to a warming climate over the past
136 years in the American West. Over 70% of
the southernmost populations (shown in yellow)
have gone extinct. The northernmost
populations and those above 8,000 feet
elevation in the cooler climate of California’s
Sierra Nevada (shown in green) are still thriving.
These differences in numbers of population
extinctions across the geographic range of the
butterfly have resulted in the average location
shifting northward and to higher elevations over
the past century, illustrating how climate change
is altering the ranges of many species. Because
their change in range is slow, most species are
not expected to be able to keep up with the
rapid climate change projected in the coming
decades.
Human Health
Key Health Impacts
• Increases in the risk of illness and death related to extreme
heat and heat waves are very likely. Some reduction in the risk
of death related to extreme cold is expected.
• Warming is likely to make it more challenging to meet air
quality standards necessary to protect public health.
• Extreme weather events cause physical and mental health
problems. Some of these events are projected to increase.
• Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are
likely to increase.
• Rising temperature and CO2 concentrations increase pollen
production and prolong the pollen season in a number of
plants with highly allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk.
• Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor,
are most vulnerable to a range of climate-related health
effects.
Number of Days Over 100°
F
The number of days in which the
temperature exceeds 100° F by late
this century, compared to the 1960s
and 1970s, is projected to increase
strongly across the United States. For
example, parts of Texas that recently
experienced about 10 to 20 days per
year over 100° F are expected to
experience more than 100 days per
year in which the temperature exceeds
100° F by the end of the century
under the higher emissions scenario.
Occurrence of the Dengue Fever Vector Mosquito and
Number of Suspected Cases in Each State
Society
Key Society Impacts
• Population shifts and development choices are making more
Americans vulnerable to the expected impacts of climate change.
• Vulnerability is greater for those who have few resources and few
choices.
• City residents and city infrastructure have unique vulnerabilities to
climate change.
• Climate change affects communities through changes in climatesensitive resources that occur both locally and at great distances.
• Insurance is one of the industries particularly vulnerable to
increasing extreme weather events such as severe storms, but it
can also help society mange the risks.
• The United States is connected to a world that is unevenly
vulnerable to climate change and thus will be affected by impacts in
other parts of the world.
Recreational
Activity
Skiing, Northeast
Snowmobiling, Northeast
Beaches, North Carolina
Potential Impacts
of Climate Change
Estimated
Economic Impacts
20% reduction in length
of ski season
$800 million loss per
year, potential resort
closures
Reduction of season
length under higher
emissions scenario
Complete loss of
opportunities in New
York and Pennsylvania
within a few decades,
80% reduction in season
length for region by end
of century
Many beaches are
eroded, and some lost by
2080
Reduced opportunities
for beach and fishing
grips, without additional
cost for adaptation
measures