Transcript Global Climate Change in Florida?

Global Climate Change in Florida?
The Truth about Climate Change
in the Southeast United States
By
Dr. James J. O’Brien
Retired Emeritus
Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor
Meteorology and Oceanography
SUBTITLE
WHAT AL GORE AND HIS
FOLLOWERS
WILL NOT TELL YOU
What if sea level rose 6 meters?
Image courtesy of Environmental Studies Laboratory,
University of Arizona
LETS TALK ABOUT
ORANGES
SEALEVEL
SE COOLING
HURRICANES
THE ORANGE STORY
Climate and Florida Citrus
Adapted from: John Attaway, “A History of Florida
Citrus Freezes”
Impact
Freezes:
February
1835
December
1894
7-9,
29,
February
1895
8,
February
14, 1899
13-
December 1213, 1934
January
27-19,
Freeze damaged orange
trees in
1895
1940
December 1213, 1962
January 18-20,
“The Warm Century” – prior to 1835
Citrus was introduced with
success at colonial
Charleston, Savannah, and
St. Augustine. Accounts are
Mature orange grove
outside of St. Augustine,
FL in the early 1890’s.
Trees have obviously
grown for decades without
major freeze damage. from Buel, 1893
Orange Industry takes hold in NorthCentral Florida
The freeze of 1835 killed
trees to the roots in South
Carolina, Georgia, and
northeast Florida with
temperatures reaching as
low as 1 degree F in
Charleston.
Following this event, a
thriving orange industry
sprang up in Alachua,
Marian and Putnam
counties surrounding
Orange Lake.
Center of Production Moves to
Central Florida – 20th Century
The winter of 1894/1895
experience two severe
freezes (mid-Dec. and
mid-Feb.) separtated by
an unusually warm spell.
Groves damaged by the
Dec. freeze had produced
tender new vegetation
prior to the Feb. event,
leaving them especially
vulnerable.
Damage by these freezes
Present Day – Citrus moves
further South
Beginning in 1977 and
lasting through 1989,
Florida saw a succession
of severe freezes that
damaged trees further
south than ever before.
The center of production
moved further south to its
present position in westcentral and southwest
Florida.
The more tropical climate
The Sea Level Story
What if sea level rose 6 meters?
Image courtesy of Environmental Studies Laboratory,
University of Arizona
Local sea level measurements
Key West
2.27 mm/yr
Pensacola
2.14 mm/yr
Sea Level Rise
• Global Measurements from Tide Gauges:
2.1 mm/year = 8.4 in/century
• Global Measurement from Altimeter:
3.1 mm/year = 12.4 in/century
• There is no acceleration observed
• Al Gore says 20 feet sometime
• At current rate, 5 feet will take 484 years
• At double current rate, 5 feet in 242 years
• At quadruple rate, 5 feet in 141 years
• The pertinent question for Florida is not will sea level rise but
will storms get stronger
Historic sea level rise
• Sea level measurements from
23 highest quality tidal stations
around the world.
• Estimates of sea level rise from
1 mm/yr to 2 mm/yr.
• Satellite measurements
(altimeters) since 1992 indicate
a rise of around 3mm/yr.
• IPCC third assessment report
stated "No significant
acceleration in the rate of sea
level rise during the 20th century
has been detected."
THE FLORIDA TEMPERATURE
STORY
MOST RURAL STATIONS ARE COOLING 2-4 F/CENTURY
A Closer Look – De Funiak Springs
• Town is located to the northeast
of Eglin AFB, a large expanse of
undeveloped forests.
• Surrounding countryside consists
of pastures, farmland, and pine
forests.
• Station located at Showel Farms,
3 miles to the east of the city.
• Walton County population is very
low at around 40,000.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – De Funiak Springs
A Closer Look – Arcadia
• Small Town surrounded by
pastures, citrus groves, pine
stands, and lowlands.
• Station located at the water
treatment plant inside the city
limits.
• Arcadia has grown very little in
the last 40 years and only has a
population of around 10,000.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – Arcadia
A Closer Look – Fort Myers
• Station located at Page Field
near downtown Fort Myers.
• The city of Fort Myers has
experienced tremendous urban
sprawl in the last 40 years.
• Lee county population has
ballooned from 60,000 to over a
half million in the last 40 years.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – Fort Myers
A Closer Look – Belle Glade
• Small Farming community near
the southern shore of Lake
Okeechobee.
• Station located 2.5 miles south
of town at the Agriculture
Experiment Station.
• Relatively stable population.
• USHCN station (unadjusted
data)
• Data record SHOULD be
reflective of predominant climate
trends.
A Closer Look – Belle Glade
Wrong!!! – Land Use Change
Land cover maps of Florida from the pre1900’s and from 1993 show the area
south of Okeechobee now surrounded by
irrigated sugar cane fields.
Mesoscale modeling has
shown large summertime
temperature differences in the
area from differences in land
use (Marshall, et al., 2004).
Temperature difference in degrees C
THE HURRICANE STORY
Probability of Hurricane Landfall: U.S. Coast
25-Year Period Signal + Trend
2-Year Period Signal + Trend
Smoothed Time Series
T yr 
Tyr 1  2  Tyr  Tyr 1
4
2-Year Period + 25-Year Period Signals + Trend
Smoothed Time Series
Bonus material
A GIFT
SEE
http://coaps.fsu.edu/gis/decile.php
Probability of extreme
Temperatures in USA
Change in Beginning of the Hot Season
Change in End of the Hot Season
Change in Length of the Hot Season
THE END
QUESTIONS PLEASE