Transcript Climatechange

Global Climate Change in Florida?
Global Climate Change in Florida
By
Dr. James J. O’Brien
Retired Emeritus
Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor
Meteorology and Oceanography
AASC 2007
THE ORANGE STORY
THE SEALEVEL STORY
THE TEMPERATURES
THE HURRICANES
THE FLORIDA ORANGE STORY
HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES
Major Impact Freezes
Feb 1835: Mentions of orange groves in St. Augustine, FL, Northern Florida, Southern Georgia and parts
of coastal South Carolina. The freeze destroyed all groves north of 28˚N- eliminated groves entirely from
Georgia and South Carolina.
Dec 1894/Feb 1895: Groves in Jacksonville, Palatka, Deland, and Fort George complete destroyed.
Most growers that had groves north of Ocala relocated to Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk countiesthough some still stayed north. Mentions of groves in the following counties: Alachua, Pinellas,
Hillsborough, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Sumter, DeSoto, Lee, Indian River, and Manatee
Dec 1962: Heavy damage north and west of a line from Volusia across to Manatee, Hardee and DeSoto.
Mentions of groves in the following counties: Marion, Putnam, Volusia, Pasco, Hernando, Lake, Citrus,
Sumter, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Hillsborough, Polk, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Brevard, Hardee,
DeSoto, Highlands, Lee, Hendry, Charlotte, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward
Dec 1983: Heavy damage reported in Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Orange, Pasco,
Putnam, St. Johns, Seminole, Sumter, Volusia
Extensive damage reported in Northern Hillsborough, N. Osceola, N. Polk
Moderate damage reported in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Brevard
Minimal damage reported in Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Henry, Highlands, Indian River,
Lee, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, Sarasota.
HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES
Dec 1983: Heavy damage reported in Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Orange, Pasco,
Putnam, St. Johns, Seminole, Sumter, Volusia
Extensive damage reported in Northern Hillsborough, N. Osceola, N. Polk
Moderate damage reported in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Brevard
Minimal damage reported in Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Henry, Highlands, Indian River,
Lee, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach, St. Lucie, Sarasota.
Jan 1985: Light damage reported south of a line from Manatee to Indian River. Heavy damage in Citrus,
Hernando, Marion, Sumter, Volusia, Lake, N. Orange, N. Seminole, Pasco, N. Polk, N. Osceola, Brevard.
Other counties mentioned has having groves: Highlands, Hillsborough, Hardee, DeSoto, Manatee,
Sarasota, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Okeechobee, Glades, Hendry, Lee
Dec 1989: By this freeze, Alachua and Putnam Counties were removed from the survey due to the lack of
orange groves. This freeze also pushed the following counties to be removed/or nearly removed from the
survey: Marion, Hernando, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia. Most mature trees were killed in Lake, Orange
Sumter and Volusia counties. Severe damage reported in Polk County. Other counties surveyed: Pasco,
Hillsborough, Osceola, Hardee, DeSoto, Brevard, Highlands, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach,
Okeechobee, Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Lee
THE ORANGE STORY
THE ORANGE STORY
The Sea Level Story
Local sea level measurements
Key West
2.27 mm/yr
Pensacola
2.14 mm/yr
Historic sea level rise
• Sea level measurements from
23 highest quality tidal stations
around the world.
• Estimates of sea level rise from
1 mm/yr to 2 mm/yr.
• Satellite measurements
(altimeters) since 1992 indicate
a rise of around 3mm/yr.
• IPCC third assessment report
stated "No significant
acceleration in the rate of sea
level rise during the 20th century
has been detected."
What if sea level rose 6 meters?
Image courtesy of Environmental Studies Laboratory,
University of Arizona
Sea Level Rise
• Global Measurements from Tide Gauges:
2.1 mm/year = 8.4 in/century
• Global Measurement from Altimeter:
3.1 mm/year = 12.4 in/century
• There is no acceleration observed
• Al Gore says 20 feet sometime
• At current rate, 5 feet will take 484 years
• At double current rate, 5 feet in 242 years
• At quadruple rate, 5 feet in 141 years
• The pertinent question for Florida is not will sea level rise but
will storms get stronger
THE FLORIDA TEMPERATURE
STORY
MOST RURAL STATIONS ARE COOLING 2-4 F/CENTURY
A Closer Look – De Funiak Springs
Town is located to the northeast of Eglin
AFB, a large expanse of undeveloped
forests.
Surrounding countryside consists of
pastures, farmland, and pine forests.
Station located at Showel Farms, 3
miles to the east of the city.
Walton County population is very low at
around 40,000.
USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – De Funiak Springs
A Closer Look – Arcadia
Small Town surrounded by pastures,
citrus groves, pine stands, and
lowlands.
Station located at the water treatment
plant inside the city limits.
Arcadia has grown very little in the last
40 years and only has a population of
around 10,000.
USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – Arcadia
A Closer Look – Fort Myers
• Station located at Page Field
near downtown Fort Myers.
• The city of Fort Myers has
experienced tremendous urban
sprawl in the last 40 years.
• Lee county population has
ballooned from 60,000 to over a
half million in the last 40 years.
• USHCN station (unadjusted data)
A Closer Look – Fort Myers
A Closer Look – Belle Glade
Small Farming community near the
southern
shore
of
Lake
Okeechobee.
Station located 2.5 miles south of town
at the Agriculture Experiment
Station.
Relatively stable population.
USHCN station (unadjusted data)
Data record SHOULD be reflective of
predominant climate trends.
A Closer Look – Belle Glade
Wrong!!! – Land Use Change
Land cover maps of Florida from the pre1900’s and from 1993 show the area
south of Okeechobee now surrounded by
irrigated sugar cane fields.
Mesoscale modeling has
shown large summertime
temperature differences in the
area from differences in land
use (Marshall, et al., 2004).
Temperature difference in degrees C
THE HURRICANE STORY
Probability of Hurricane Landfall: U.S. Coast
25-Year Period Signal + Trend
2-Year Period Signal + Trend
Smoothed Time Series
T yr 
Tyr 1  2  Tyr  Tyr 1
4
2-Year Period + 25-Year Period Signals + Trend
Smoothed Time Series
THE END
QUESTIONS PLEASE