Transcript IPL global warming - The Regeneration Project

Interfaith Power and Light
Outline
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
I.
Global Warming is
Real
II. The Science
III. The Impacts
IV. What We Can Do
magazine covers
courtesy of Chris Rose
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Greatest Threat
“Climate change is the
most severe problem
that we are facing
today.”
Sir David King, Chief Scientist for
the UK Government, January 2004
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
Photo: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/global-warming-threatens-polar-bears/2005/07/08/1120704551713.html
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Global Warming is Real
“There is an international scientific
consensus that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human causes.”
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
2004 (ACIA)
Global warming is happening now
The world's leading atmospheric scientists tell us that
a gradual warming of our climate is underway and will
continue. This poses serious risks to our economy
and our environment. It poses even greater risks to
many other nations, particularly poorer countries that
will be far less able to cope with a changing climate
and low-lying countries where sea level rise will
cause significant damage.
SOURCE: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/
Pollution is the Primary Cause
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The “Greenhouse gases”
(e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, CFC’s) trap heat in the earth’s
atmosphere.
Greenhouse
gases in
atmosphere
Solar energy
passes through
Radiant
heat is
trapped
Diagrams: Jennifer Allen
Diagrams © Jennifer Allen
Science understood
since 1859 - John Tyndall
Pollution is the Primary Cause
C + O2
CO2
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Combustion)
Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels
produces carbon dioxide.
 The most carbon
dioxide in 650,000
years.
(Siegenthaler et al, 2005)
1.8
Global Temperature Change (deg F)
 Humans have
increased carbon
dioxide (CO2) in
the atmosphere by
more than 35%
since the Industrial
Revolution.
1000 Years of CO2 and
Global Temperature Change
380
1.4
1.1
CO2
0.7
0.4
340
Temperature
320
0
-0.4
300
-0.7
-1.1
1000
360
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
CO2: Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant
280
1200
1400
1600
Year
1800
2000
Source: ACIA 2004
Jennifer Allen graphic
The Smoking Gun
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Natural factors only
Human factors only
Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Natural factors only
Human factors only
BOTH
Courtesy of
Woods Hole
Research
Center
Postive Feedback - one example
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Albedo Effect
Snow and sea ice
reflect 85-90% of
sun’s energy.
Ocean surface and
dark soil reflect
only 10-20%.
(ACIA, 2004)
Increased
melting of snow
and sea ice
More dark earth
and ocean surface
is exposed
Land or water
warms faster
More of sun’s
heat energy is
absorbed
(“White shirt versus Black shirt”)
Impacts
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
2003
Austin Post photo
1958
Matt Nolan photo
Glacial Retreat
1941
USGS photo
2004
Bruce Molnia photo
 An area twice the
size of Texas has
melted away since
1979 (over 20%
decrease).
 Arctic sea ice
recovered less in
2005/2006.
Source ACIA, 2004
 Arctic Ocean could
be ice free in summer
by 2050.
Jennifer Allen Animation
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions of sq. km.)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Melting Sea Ice
9-
ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA
1979-2005
8-
 Bering Sea Ice Sheet
also retreating.
76Source: NSIDC, 2005
1978
|
|
|
|
|
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2005
Forest Fires
•
"The increase in large wildfires
appears to be another part of a chain
of reactions to climate warming," said
study co-author Dan Cayan, director
of Scripps Institution of
Oceanography's Climate Research
Division.
•
A recent increase in wildfire activity
has been correlated with rising
seasonal temperatures and the
earlier arrival of spring, a new study
concludes.
By Sara Goudarzi
LiveScience 06 July 2006
Ocean Acidification
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Over the last 200 years, about 50% of all CO2 produced on
earth has been absorbed by the ocean.
Remains in the
atmosphere
(greenhouse gas)
Dissolves in
sea water
CO2 + H20
HCO3- + H+
(ACID)
Water becomes
more acidic.
CO2
CO2
Ocean Acidification
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Lower pH = MORE ACID
Historical and Projected pH and Dissolved CO2
Feely, Sabine and Fabry, 2006
pH
 At present rate
of CO2 emission,
pH predicted to
increase by
0.4 units (ocean
acidity triples)
by 2100.
Dissolved
CO2
1850
 Since 1850,
ocean pH has
decreased by
about 0.1 unit
(over 25%
increase in
acidity).
2000
2100
Ocean Acidification
Under more acidic conditions:
Pteropod
 Pteropods (an important
food source for salmon,
cod, herring, and pollock)
likely not able to survive
at CO2 levels predicted
for 2100 (600ppm, pH
7.9)
All photos this page courtesy of NOAA
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Animals with calcium carbonate shells -- corals, sea urchins,
snails, mussels, clams, certain plankton, and others -- have
trouble building skeletons and shells can even begin to dissolve.
 Coral reefs at serious
risk.
 Food chain disruptions.
Squid
Clam
Coral Bleaching
 Belize: estimated 40%
loss since 1998
 Seychelles: 90%
bleached in 1998, now
only 7.5% cover; 50%
decline in fish diversity
(Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 5/06)
 If warming continues,
Great Barrier Reef could
lose 95% of living coral
by 2050 (Ove HoeghGuldberg/ WWF 2005)
 Disease followed
bleaching in Caribbean
Reefs in 2005/06
Photo © Gary Braasch
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Independent 6/9/06).
Human Health Impacts
Disease: Malaria, Dengue Fever,
West Nile Virus
Weather Events: Heat waves,
floods, droughts
Water quality and quantity
In a recent chilling assessment, the World Health Organization (WHO)
reported that human-induced changes in the Earth's climate now lead
to at least 5 million cases of illness and more than 150,000 deaths
every year.
From Science Daily
November 17, 2005
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or, 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Cataclysmic Global Consequences
Florida Areas Subject to Inundation
With a 100 cm Sea Level Rise
 Massive extinctions (25% by ’50)
 Ocean acidification
 Major ocean current changes
 Coral reef destruction
 Coastal inundation
Harlequin frog
ACIA 2004
Robert Puschendorf
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Drought, heat, extreme weather
Photo © Robert Puschendorf All rights reserved
Cataclysmic Global Consequences
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Bangladesh: More than
17 million people live within
3 feet (1m) of sea level.
Bangladesh
Photo courtesy of Richard Wilson,
Bangladesh Maps, Harvard University
Photo courtesy of ourbangla.com
 Tuvalu: Island nation with
highest elevation 4.6m
(15 ft); most is less than
1m above sea level.
Tuvalu
Photo © Gary Braasch
The poor will suffer the most
“Scientists recently mapped out the countries most likely to be
affected by climate change. They include some of the poorest and
least industrialized parts of the world. In other words, those who
have contributed the least to global warming—and who are least
able to deal with its effects—are the ones who will suffer most.”
--From the website of World Vision Canada
World Resources Institute, 2001
Per Capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels
India
China
Japan
European Union
Russia
Canada
US
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Tons of CO2
4.00
5.00
6.00
Source of US CO2 Emissions
Commercial
4%
Residential
6%
Industrial
17%
Electricity Generation
40%
Transportation
33%
Energy Information Administration 2000
US Electricity Generation (by fuel)
Renewables
2%
Hydropower
8%
Nuclear
20%
Coal
51%
Natural Gas
16%
Oil
3%
Energy Information Administration 2000
What We Can Do
REDUCE CO 2
EMISSIONS
1. Is it Achievable?
2. Action Is Essential
at Every Level
•
•
•
•
•
Individual
Congregation
Corporate
State & National
International
3. Join IPL
What We Can Do
Corporate Actions
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Reducing CO2 is good business
 Dow Chemical: reduced energy
per unit of production by 21%
since 1994, saving $3 billion.
 3M reduced emissions by about
37% between 1990 and 2004, by
reducing energy consumption 4%
per year.
 BP reduced emissions 14%
between 1998 and 2004, gaining
$650 million.
What We Can Do
Government Actions
A Success Story
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Regulating Emissions (SO2) through Cap and Trade
SO2 Emissions from Utilities
 SO2 emissions
have declined by
more than 6.5
million tons since
1980.
 Fully implemented,
the cap reduces
SO2 emissions to
50% of 1980 levels
by 2010.
Source: EPA 2002
California Global Warming Legislation
AB 32 would limit California’s global warming emissions to
1990 levels by 2020, and institute a mandatory emissions
reporting system to monitor compliance. It also would allow
for market mechanisms to provide incentives to businesses
to reduce emissions while safeguarding local communities.
University of California, Berkeley study found that returning
California’s global warming emissions to 1990 levels by
2020, as envisioned by AB 32, can boost the annual Gross
State Product (GSP) by $74 billion and create 89,000 new
jobs by 2020.
What We Can Do
Individual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
Fuel Efficiency
Alternative Transportation
Photo: Bill Bradlee
Wind Energy
Photo: Bill Bradlee
Photovoltaic Solar
Photo: Bill Bradlee
Start Now! - Change a light bulb
If every household in the U.S. replaced one light bulb with an ENERGY
STAR qualified compact fluorescent light bulb (CFL), it would prevent
enough pollution to equal removing one million cars from the road.
Source: EPA
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"The ultimate test of
a moral society is
the kind of world that
it leaves to its
children.”
Dietrich Bonhoeffer, German theologian
Photo: Bill Bradlee
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Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
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