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IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT
REPORT (2007)
BASIS, IMPLEMENTATION,
POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS
In 1930 Niels Borh said
NOTHING EXISTS UNTIL IT IS MEASURED
At present we should add:
AND NO NATURAL OR HUMAN SYSTEM SHOULD BE UTILIZED
OR DEVELOPED UNTIL ITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC COMPONENTS
ARE CAREFULLY MONITORED AND
INTEGRALLY RESEARCHED
THIS IS THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ´ DEFY
ACCORDINGLY THE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF AIACC
Figure 2 – Climate Change Working group II Focus:
FAR
SAR
TAR
IMPACTS
VULNERABILITIES
IMPACTS
VULNERABILITIES
ADAPTATION
IMPACTS
EMPHASIS ON
SECTORS
REGIONS
SECTORS
SECTORS
Integrated analysis
CROSS CUTTING ISSUES / THEMES
NONE
UNCERTAINTY
*SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
*COSTING METHODOLOGIES (III)
*DECISION FRAMEWORKS (III)
(INCLUDING COST/BENEFITS
ANALYSIS)
BIOGEOCHEMICAL / ECOLOGICAL
FEEDBACKS
SINKS (SR LULUCF)
SCENARIOS (SR)
IPCC TAR SYNTHESIS REPORT
In broad lines, this first IPCC - SyR was oriented to:
a) consolidate the TAR findings, for the sake of its products ´
ready interpretation,
b) better focus matters of relevance to decision making,
particularly those related to UNFCCC Article 2, the potential
for, costs and benefits, and equity implications, regarding
policies and measures and the KP mechanisms regarding
GHG concentration,
c) incorporate the interlinkages between climate change and
other global issues, as well as to refer what was known
about the regional implications of climate change
d) Identify its robust findings and Key Uncertainties
Figure 1: the Previous IPCC Assesment Reports.
ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:
Issue
Key Uncertainties
Climate Change and
Attribution
Magnitude and character of natural
climate variability
Climate forcings due to natural
factors and anthropogenic
Aerosols (particularly indirect
effects)
Relating regional trends to
anthropogenic climate change
ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:
Issue
Key Uncertainties
Future changes in
global and regional
climate based on
model projections
with SRES
scenarios
Assumptions associated with a
wide range of SRES scenarios, as
above
Factors associated with model
projections, in particular climate
sensitivity, climate forcing and
feedback processes
specially those involving water
vapor, clouds and aerosols
(including aerosols indirect effects).
ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:
Issue
Key Uncertainties
Future changes in
global and regional
climate based on
model projections
with SRES
scenarios
Understanding the probability
distribution associated with
temperature, and sea-level
projections
The mechanisms, quantification, time
scales and likelihoods associated
with large-scale abrupt / non linear
changes (e.g. thermohaline
circulation)
Capabilities of models on regional
scales (especially regarding
precipitation), leading to
inconsistencies in model projections
and difficulties in quantification on
local and regional scales.
ANNEX I.- Key Uncertainties identified in TAR:
Issue
Key Uncertainties
Regional and global
impacts of changes
in mean climate and
extremes.
Reliability of local or regional detail
in projections of climate change,
especially climate extremes
Assessing and predicting response
of ecological, social (e.g. impact of
vector and water–borne diseases),
and economic systems to the
combined effect of climate change
and other stresses such as land use
change, local pollution, etc.
Identification, quantification and
valuation of damages associated
with climate change.
Taking into account the increasing interest for global environment
issues and the need to:
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better understanding the causes, trends and effects of climate
change and its implications on future development
complement previous assessments at the light of the dynamic
progress observed with respect to every issue concerning the
global environmental change, the global climate change
included.
integrate climate change and the other environmental issues
improve the contents, presentation and degree of confidence
shown in previous assessments, to better assume the IPCC ´s
advisory activities, and. in particular to fulfill its commitments
with the UNFCCC, as well as to satisfy the needs from other
international conventions and agreements,
the Panel assumed the responsibility to initiate a fourth
assessment period, its report being identified as AR4 ( IPCC
18th Session, Wembley, 24-29 September 2001)
The Panel decided to maintain its structure with three working
groups:
•
WG I: The Physical Science Basis
•
WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
•
WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change
•
WG II and III are also responsible for analyzing the social and
economic implications of climate change
•
Also up-graded the Task Force on Inventories
Reference Framework:
Evaluating the TAR´s results, the comments from
governments, stakeholders, scientific groups and NGOs,
assessing the needs from UNFCCC and other agencies (i.e.
WCP-Water), and having in mind the problems like:
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shortage of specific bibliography,
reduced effective co-ordination between WGs, leading to a
non-homogeneous and unadjusted treatment of crosscutting issues,
different projections, derived from models run with
different socio-economic scenarios,
lack of appropriate regional climate models
limited or poor, unreliable information on socio-economic
effect of climate change, particularly regarding extreme
events,
poor or lack of information on adaptation measures, and its
costs, etc,
Reference Framework:
the IPCC Bureau developed a document as a reference
framework to provide the initial guidelines for AR4. This
framework re-stated the need to:
1st.- ensure the high quality of IPCC products
2nd.- safeguard the reputation of the IPCC as an
intergovernmental body that produces policy-relevant but
not policy-prescriptive neither policy driven assessments,
3rd.- develop a more narrow coordination and better
integration between its three working groups, to identify
relevant scientific and technological topics, with the aim of
promoting new research activities and better assess their
results, through their combined efforts.
Reference Framework:
Another important decision was to charge the WG co-chairs
and their respective Bureaus and TSUs, with the
responsibility to develop AR4 WG frameworks and
outlines.
This decision modified the approach adopted regarding the
building-up of TAR and improved the procedure for authors
selection.
This, in turn, enabled a better approach to cross-cutting
among each WG chapters.
Reference Framework:
Meanwhile, the Panel also took decision regarding the crosscuts or intersections between the contents of the
different WG chapters. The 20th IPCC Session (Paris,
19-21 February 2003) decided that the AR4 crosscutting themes – CCTs – should be:
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Uncertainty and Risk Management (WG I)
Regional Integration (WG I)
Science related to the UNFCCC Article 2 and Key
Vulnerabilities (WGII)
Water (WG II)
Adaptation and Mitigation (WG III)
Sustainable Development (WG III)
Technology (WG III)
Reference Framework:
All, the three WGs are involved in the CCTs; however, those
shown in brackets assume the responsibility to
coordinate actions and report.
One
of the IPCC Vice-chairs assumes
responsibilities regarding CCTs in AR4.
the
Chair´s
Figure 3 – Climate Change Working group II Focus:
FAR
SAR
TAR
IMPACTS
VULNERABILITIES
IMPACTS
IMPACTS
VULNERABILITIES
Sectors
Regions
SECTORS
IMPACTS
VULNERABILITIES
ADAPTATION
ADAPTATION
EMPHASIS ON
SECTORS
AR4
Integrated analysis
Sectors
Regions
Integrated
analysis
CROSS CUTTING ISSUES / THEMES
NONE
UNCERTAINTY
*SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
*COSTING METHODOLOGIES
(III)
*DECISION FRAMEWORKS (III)
(INCLUDING COST/BENEFITS
ANALYSIS)
BIOGEOCHEMICAL /
ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACKS
*UNCERTAINTY / RISK (I)
*SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP (III)
*KEY VULNERABILITIES
(ART.2 - UNFCCC)
*WATER
*REGIONAL INTEGRATION (I)
*ADAPTATION / MITIGATION (III)
*TECHNOLOGY (III)
Further Panel ´decisions concerning the AR4 are:
1.
This report should not repeat matters already assessed in
previous IPCC assessment and Special Reports. Cross
references shall be included and copying previous
assessments would be accepted only when necessary,
2.
more efforts to search for information, particularly from
developing regions, in languages other than English,
3.
additional data from the largely oceanic hemisphere is
badly necessary to overcome the information unbalance
between North and South. If complete and reliable, such
information might result in important findings,
Further Panel ´decisions concerning the AR4 are:
In
each opportunity these issues were brought into
consideration, it was remarked that major gain should be
taken from ongoing and planned programmes and
projects on global environmental issues, particularly
those involving the climate problematic, i.e:
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•
multilateral and bilateral programmes
studies and projects financed for the sake of National
Communications to the UNFCCC
activities from UN specialized agencies and programmes,
including those from regional offices (e.g. water
management issues by ECLAC)
International non-governmental institutions, like IUCC
Specific projects developed under GEF, like those by
AIACC
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Furthermore, with the avail of governments, stakeholders, NGOs, etc
the Reference Framework emphasizes the need to:
1º.- develop integrated assessment studies,
linking climate change with other issues,
considering different socio-economic scenarios,
providing trustful references on technological capacities,
available infrastructures and specific legislation,
Integrate Assessment of Natural And Human Systems:
INITIAL CONDITIONS: COMPOSITION AND CHARACTERISTICS POPULATIONA;
INFRASTRUCTURES AND SERVICES; AFFLUENCY; CONSUMPTION RATES;
POVERTY.-
ENVIROMENTAL COMPONENTS
BEARING UPON DEVELOPMENT
CLIMATE CHANGE
LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
ATMOSPHERE OZONE
WATER -QUANTITY AND
QUALITY / ACIDIFICATION
EUTROPHICATION
DEFORESTATION
AIR QUALITY
ACID DEPOSITIONS
OCEANS CURRENTS
ACIDIFICATION,
EUTROPHICATION
DESERTIFICATION
AFFECTED DOMAINS
BY THE GLOBAL CHANGE COMPONENTS
ATMOSPHERIC DOMAIN: GEOPHYSICAL VARIABLES
TERRESTRIAL DOMAIN: SOILS, HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS, WATER RESOURCES, NATURAL AND
MANAGED SYSTEMS, CRYOSPHER, BIOMES (LAND + FRESH WATER.)
OCEANIC DOMAIN: GEOPHYSICAL VARIABLES, MARINE BIOMES.
SOCIAL / ECONOMIC DOMAIN: HUMAN HEALTH, MIGRATIONS, POVERTY EXACERBATION, WARS,
SUSTAINABILITY, EQUITY COMMUNITY, HAZARDS + RISKS.
LEGAL DOMAIN: ENVIROMENTAL LAW, HUMAN SETTLEMENT´S, RESTRICTIONS, REGULATIONS.=
TECHNOLOGICAL / TECHNICE DOMAIN: NATURAL SERVICES USE
Integrated Assesment Framework for Considering Climate Change:
ELEMENTS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
Furthermore, with the avail of governments, stakeholders, NGOs,
etc the Reference Framework emphasizes the need to:
2º.- The reports writting
must be clear,
express non-interested and unbiased conclusions,
ensure unique interpretation, and
being presented with words and formats ensuring
comparable and truthful translations in the UN official
languages,
3º.- Conclusions must be of relevance to decision making,
politically- relevant but not politically-prescriptive.
Working Group I : Climate Change : The Physical Science Basis:
The main issues to be dealt with by WG I are:
a) Observations (Changes in: Surface and Atmosphere Snow, ice and frozen ground - Ocean and sea level)
b) Understanding in radiative forcing, processes and
coupling ( Biogeochemical, carbon cycles and the
Climate system - Air quality, aerosols, chemistry and
climate change – Changes in Land Surface vs climate –
and Interactions among cycles and processes)
c) Climate modeling ( Climate models and evaluation –
Understanding and attributing climate change – Global
climate and regional projections)
d) Advances in understanding uncertainties ( CCTs)
WG I ´s framewok also includes a chapter on Paleoclimate,
with a guide to the Use of Paleoclimate Information
W G II.- Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability
Includes 4 Sections:
A.- Assessment of Observed Changes
- Detection and attribution: methods
- Systems and Sectors : observed changes, including
Vulnerability and Adaptation
- Large scale aggregation and attribution
B.- Assessment of Future Impacts and Adaptation : Systems
and Sectors
Includes new assessment methodologies and
characterization of future conditions and encompasses
sectoral issues ( Water and its management Ecosystems: properties, goods and services - Food, fibre
and forest products - Coastal systems and low lying areas
- Industry Settlement and Society - Human Health)
W G II.- Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability
C.- Assessment of Future Impacts and Adaptation : Regions
Includes 8 clusters which are comparable with the WMO
regions.
D.- Assessment of Responses to Impacts
- Assessment of responses to impacts and
interconnections with the CCTs:
- Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options,
Constraints
and Capacity
- Inter-relations between Adaptation and Mitigation
- Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and Risk from Climate
Change
- Perspectives on Climate change and Sustainability
WG III.- Climate Change 2007 : Mitigation of climate change
Includes 4 Sections
A.- Introduction and Framing Issues,
Focus on issues in TAR and linked to the new CCTs
(i.e. Distributional and Equity aspects - Costing Methodologies Decision Making and implementation )
B.- Issues related to Mitigation in the Long-term Context
Involving the critical problem of socio-economic scenarios and
the new approaches to this issue. Development pathways,
trends and goals leading to mitigation and the development
of possible stabilization scenarios
C.- Specific Mitigation Options in the Short and Medium Term
Dealing with short and medium term mitigation actions involves
the need to assess the status of sectors in production and
consumption of services - improvement in mitigation
technologies and practices - climate policy : potentials,
barriers and opportunities / implementation issues - non
climate policies - co-benefits of GHG mitigation
Mitigation and Adaptation options, Cost and Sustainability.
WG III.- Climate Change 2007 : Mitigation of climate change
D.- Cross Sectoral, National and International Dimensions
Will assess information on mitigation from a cross-sectoral
perspective and in relation to mitigation in the long term
….- macroeconomic effects. - sustainable development
vis à vis of mitigation, assessing the determinants of
mirtigation capacity, in association with WG II analysis of
Adaptive capacity.
Plus policies, instruments and co-operative arrangements,
involving agreements and other arrangements –
international co-operation and interactions with other
inter-governmental arrangements and with private, local
and non-governmental initiatives CCTs mainly with WG II.
POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS:
The limitations in TAR, which would complement the need to
further research regarding the key uncertainties
mentioned in the TAR-SyR, could be summarized as
follows:
i)
lack of sufficient geophysical, biological, economic and
social information due to the lack of GCOS
implementation regarding the atmospheric. Terrestrial
and oceanic domains, particularly in developing
countries, and the failure to complement the data series
with economic and social information,
ii) need to further research on direct and indirect effects of
aerosols
iii) urgent need to deepen knowledge on seas and oceans
behavior under climate change. CO2 sink capacities /
acidification/biological effects (trophic chain)
POTENTIAL SHORTCOMINGS CONT.:
iv) lack of reliable regional climate models,
v) limited studies and investigations involving integrated
assessments,
vi) need to further and improve decisions concerning socioeconomic scenarios and approach solution for regional
scenarios, to better understand regions ´participation in
mitigation and adaptation actions and define potential
stabilization
scenarios
and
their
environmental
consequences,
vii) need to further TGICA activities, taking care on the need
to fill gaps regarding data and scenario support for
impact and climate analysis
viii) lack of effective interactions with other scientific,
technological and technical groups, leading to
unnecessary efforts to implement integrated studies.
IMPLEMENTATION OF AR4:
Demands:
All possible efforts to arrive at conclusions which would
satisfy better decision making, in particular those related
to KP mechanisms, aiming at fulfilling UNFCCC Article 2
and to provide effective information for WEHAB ´s
objectives,
Interlinking with UNCBD, UND, MEA, the Water Community
and WSSD(through WEHAB),
Improve IPCC Outreaching.