Transcript PPT 10MB - START - SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed
Rice Production in
Mekong River Delta and Affect on
Farmer’s Livelihood
Nguyen Thi Hien Thuan
Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology of South Vietnam
Suppakorn Chinvanno
SEA START RC
AIACC AS 07
CONTENTS
1.
Objectives
2.
Scope and method of study
3.
Main activities
4.
Major findings
Objectives:
To understand the long term impacts of climate
change on rice production in Mekong River Delta
To understand the vulnerability of community in
the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate
change on rice production
To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to
minimize vulnerability to the community
Scope and Method of study:
Analysis of impact of climate change on rice
production
 To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in
the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x
CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling
technique.
 Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM
regional climate model, are generated to analyze
the change of rice yield in the region.
 Produce climate risk map of rice production by
comparing the change in the yield of rice from
observed average actual yield and the result from
the simulation.
Scope and Method of study:
Assessment on
commune level
climate
risk
at
the
 Conduct field survey
 Analyze how the community livelihood may
depend on the rice production
 Analyze the capacity to cope with disaster
 Produce vulnerability map – consider the
community which have household income
reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does
not have sufficient alternate source of income
to maintain their livelihood.
Main Activities:
Phase 1:
Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT
4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include:
crop management data, soil properties, weather data
(rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum
temperature, sunshine hours).
Phase 2:
Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the
MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An
Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province
covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per
province.
Study areas
4 provinces: Long An, CÇn Th¬, §ång Th¸p, An Giang
- Located in the MRD
in VN
- Rice production is a
major agricultural
activity, >1 mil ton of
rice product per year
- Rice production is
highly affected by
climate factors
(floods/inundations,
droughts,
inappropriate rains,
…
Rice growing areas in M RD
3000
Areas (1000ha)
2500
2000
Winterspring
Summerautumn
Seasonal
1500
1000
500
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Years
2000
2002
2004
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production
 Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax,
Tmin, SRAD) at different CO2 concentration



1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline
1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049
2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075
 The simulation has been made for each year of the 3
scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been
selected: dry/median/wet years
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production:
DSSAT crop model simulation results
DSSAT software has been used for rice yield simulation for 1978 – 2002
for each of 4 provinces with:
- 2 rice types: IR64, IR66 (short-term rice ~ 90-95 days)
- 3 soil types: Alluvium, shallow acid sulfate soil, deep acid sulfate
soil
- Irrigated and non-irrigated crops
Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at
different CO2 concentrations
 1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline
 1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049
 2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075
The simulation has been made for each period of the 3 scenarios. The
typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years
Sim . yields vs obs. yield for WS rice (Long An)
8000
Simulated yield
6000
4000
2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
Obs yield
Sim . yields vs obs. yield for SA rice (Long An)
7000
Simulated yield
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Observed yield
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
CCAM
rainfall
scenarios
Dry/wet year for
1.0CO2 (upper)
1.5CO2 (middle),
2.0CO2(lower)
Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios
(average value for each scenario compared with baseline)
%
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
An Giang
Dong Thap
Can Tho
Long An
1.5 CO2 WS
1.8
1.3
0.1
2.1
1.5 CO2 SA
3
-3
3
0
2 CO2 WS
-8
-8
-11
-11
2 CO2 SA
-18
-12
-9
-14
Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)
Winter –
Spring
1.5CO2
2.0CO2
Dry
Med
Wet
Dry
Med
Wet
AN GIANG
4
-2
5
-7
4
-9
CAN THO
-6
14
2
-14
1
-8
DONG THAP
0
12
5
-10
-2
-10
LONG AN
-5
13
7
-14
-5
-6
Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)
SummerAutumn
1.5CO2
Med
Wet
-2
10
AN GIANG
Dry
-10
CAN THO
-9
0
11
-27
-24
2
3
-16
-10
3
8
9
-34
-31
-53
-26
-5
-3
DONG THAP
LONG AN
Dry
-42
2.0CO2
Med
Wet
-57
21
Rice yield anomalies of different climate scenarios
Winter-Spring Rice 1,5CO2
Summer-Autumn Rice 1.5 CO2
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
AN GIANG
CAN THO
DONG THAP
LONG AN
-60
AN GIANG
Dry
Med
CAN THO
Wet
Dry
DONG THAP
Med
LONG AN
Wet
Summer-Autumn Rice 2.0CO2
Winter-Spring Rice 2.0CO2
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
AN GIANG
CAN THO
DONG THAP
LONG AN
-60
AN GIANG
Dry
Med
Wet
CAN THO
Dry
Med
DONG THAP
Wet
LONG AN
Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios
Winter-Spring rice
Dry
1.5xCO2 scenario
2.0xCO2 scenario
Median
Wet
Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios
Summer-Autumn rice
Dry
1.5xCO2 scenario
2.0xCO2 scenario
Median
Wet
Field Survey
–
The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long
An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2
communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers.
–
Information collected from survey includes:
General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1
crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population,
labour,…)
Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice
production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus
revenue, land ownership,…)
Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators)
Coping capacity & strategy
Climate Risk Analysis: Measurement
Multi-criteria, multiple indicators
Index
Weight
Measured/Calculated as
Value
Scoring
Household Economic Condition
1
Sufficient household
productivity
1
Total HH income / Total HH Expenditure
1-3
2
Surplus household revenue
1
Percentage of (HH income – HH expenditure) / HH
Expenditure
1-3
3
Self-sustain rice
consumption
1
Produce sufficient rice for own consumption – Yes / No
1-2
4
Land ownership
1
To indicate the critical production resource – Yes / No
1-2
Rice Production Dependency
5
Sustainable livelihood
without rice production
2
Ratio of Total extra income / Total fixed expenses
2-6
6
Level of livelihood
dependency on rice
production
2
percentage of household fixed expenses that rely on rice
income: (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Rice
income * 100
2-6
Coping Capacity
7
External financial support
mechanism
2
Accessible to external loan to support rice production – Yes
/ No
2-4
8
Alternate source of income
2
Sufficient alternate source of income to maintain livelihood
2-6
Possible range of vulnerability value scoring
12 to 32
Climate Risk Analysis
Climate risk groups: value Scoring:
12 – 19 = Low vulnerability (13 Households)
>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability (34 Households)
> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability (17 Households)
Climate Risk Groups
20%
27%
53%
Low
Mod
High
Climate Risk
Low vulnerable farmers (13 Households)
Moderate vulnerable farmers (34 Households)
High vulnerable farmers (17 Households)
Farmer's experienced climate variability that affects
livelihood and rice production
Drough
t in
winterspring
crop
Dry
spells in
rainy
season
Prolonge
Too
d rain
sunny in
dry
season,
drought
Longlasting
flood
Extended Deep
flooding inunda
areas
tion
Low
vul.
3
2
12
9
7
2
5
Mod
vul
6
7
21
10
22
7
13
High
vul
2
5
8
5
12
8
8
Coping strategies
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally
flooded
Deeply
flooded
Long-lasting Drought for
flood
long time
pumping, embankment, drainage
Low
vulnerable
group
short term
13
rice,
Household appropriate
s
crop
fish breeding
Rain for
long time
pumping, drainage canals,
dredging,,
buy drying
machine
earlier
harvest
out of
control
Coping strategies
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally
flooded
Deeply
flooded
Long-lasting
flood
Pumping, embankment, drainage
short term
rice,
Moderate
appropriate
vulnerabl
crop
e group
34
Households
2 crops,
appropriate
crop and
breed
Machinery
intervention
earlier
sowing
earlier
harvest
no crops,
unable to
cope
Drought for
long time
Rain for
long time
pumping, more irrigation
canal, dredging
other crops,
Droughtresistant
Varieties
More solid
stem breed
fertilize
buy drying
machine
Coping strategies
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally
flooded
Deeply
flooded
Longlasting
flood
pumping, embankment, drainage
Drought for Rain for long
long time
time
irrigation, drainage,
canal and river dredging
embankment.
strengthning canal system
High
reducing water reduce No of
earlier
Vulnerable
crops/yr,
harvest ,
group
change sowing later sowing
17
Households
time
Short-term rice,
short term
appropriate crop,
rice
appropriate production zones
unable coping live with flood
Droughtresistant
varieties
CONCLUSIONS
Rice production in the MRD tends to reduce in the future
from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more
serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions.
The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of
rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method
has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their
socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate
impact on rice production.
Farmers in the Mekong River delta area seems to have
sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate
change on rice production due to the high productivity
level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to
heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC
awareness, a large number of faming households are
moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.
Thank You for your Attention!
Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in
Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood
AIACC AS 07