Transcript 2_session_Joyeeta_Gupta

Institute for Environmental Studies
Perspectives on climate change: what
the media need to know
Joyeeta Gupta
Coping with complexity: Sustainable development
Economic
development
Measures to
deal with
climate change
Sustainable
Development
Measures to
deal with
climate change
Reduces
economic
development
Reduces
sustainable
development
Media: Understand the perspective from
which people are speaking
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Coping with complexity: Uncertainty
• There is uncertainty in the knowledge on climate change; this uncertainty
does not imply that the knowledge is inaccurate or incorrect.
Media: Often strives for provocative debate by inviting those for and those
against climate change to discuss climate change
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Long-term
Copingobjective
with complexity: Winners and Losers
Adaptation difficult
increase in intense winter
precipitation; high risk to cooling
water; medium risks to navigation
Fresh water
High risk navigation; high
risk of flooding; High risk
salt-water intrusion and drought
Adaptation difficult
Ecosystems
Invasion of species
Risks to some ecosystems
Risks to ecosystems
like Wadden Sea
Risks to many
species and ecosystems
Adaptation difficult
Heat wave mortality
Lyme; allergies increases
Health
High
Adaptation difficult
CZM
Tourism
SLR 20 cm/century; doubling of
costs for coastline maintenance
TCI +3; Good months: 3
Skating event ½ present
SLR 35-45 cm/century; severe
damage to coastal ecosystems
TCI +6; good months: 4
Skating event ¼ present
SLR 40-55 cm/century; allowing
regular coastal flooding
TCI +8; good months: 4.5
Skating event 1/5 present
Adaptation difficult
Low
Agriculture
Damage from extreme
weather events
Higher
Intensity and frequency of some
extreme events will further increase
Extreme events
Adaptation difficult
Probability low risk-high impact events
( WAIS, THC, GIS) increases
Abrupt events
Adaptation difficult
High risks to low-lying
States and coastal areas
Int. solidarity
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2
High risks of regional
water and food shortage
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present
Temperature change (ºC) Global mean w.r.t. pre-industrial level
Coping with complexity: Seriousness
• In some countries, the media is treating climate change as if it is an
apocalyspe. The Institute for Public Policy Research – calls it ‘climate porn’.
• Media: Focusing on the actions people can take makes it more positive than
making the problem seem unmanageable.
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Coping with complexity: Shifting political paradigms
Leadership
paradigm
Conditional
leadership
N
S
N reduces emissions
and helps S
Pollution
N
Leadership sans US
US
EU
S
S
Development
N reduces emissions
partly via helping S - CDM
Inverted
Leadership
U curve
competition
may
be a zig-zag curve
CEITS JSCaNZ
EU
US
S
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US
N helps S via
N mainstreams cc help in
CDM
development cooperation
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Coping with complexity: Emissions Trading
• Assess total permissible emissions
–No long term target, so not assessed.
South
Per capita
N
• Divide between countries
North
–Either per capita
•Not politically possible
–Or grandfathering
•Not politically possible, except through a
smart negotiating strategy
North
Grandfathering
• Countries can trade
• Efficient solution
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S
S
Possible attention to: Cities and climate change
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Speakers
• Grace Akumu: Dealing with Scientific Content and the Climate Science
Debate
– Grace – Exec Director of Climate Network Africa
• Eric Hall: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and
the Kyoto Protocol: Key Programming and Reporting Elements
– Eric – former journalist with Reuter presently with UNFCCC as the
Communications and Media Manager
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Themes for discussion
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
How does on report on uncertainty to the public?
How does one simplify complexity?
How does one ensure balance? Does one ensure balance?
What should be the tone of the information provided?
How can the information be contextualized?
How can the information be made relevant?
Does the media have an educative role?
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