Transcript Jürgen-Friedrich Hake

Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Facing the truth:
EU energy policy in the age of shortage
of supply
How can we ensure energy supply in the
long term?
Jürgen-Friedrich Hake
Head of IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation
(STE)
Forschungszentrum Jülich
Germany
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Facts
 In the 1990s low energy prices seemed to suggest that
energy supplies were secure
 But in the last two years surges in the price of oil, the
number one source of energy, and power outages in
North America and Europe have shown the urgent need for
a renaissance in energy policy targeting secure supply
 In the longer run, securing energy supplies will be possible only
with a broad range of measures
 The needs of the moment call for the use of all available
levers – the diversification of energy carriers and
technologies and the mobilisation of all conservation,
reactivation and efficiency-boosting strategies
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
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Challenges
Climate Protection
Energy Policy
Security of Supply
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
Competitiveness
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
World Primary Energy Demand
Source: World Energy Outlook 2005
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
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EU- Greenpaper 03/2006
 Dependency on primary energy carriers is more than 70%
 high oil / gas prices
 investment in infrastructure: 1 trillion euros
 fair and transparent debate about the use of nuclear energy
 promotion of REN: 21% until 2010
 strengthening of internal solidarity
 climate change mitigation
 security of supply and common market (electricity and gas)
 promotion of new technologies
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Energy Mix
 Balance between various sources of energy in primary energy
consumption.
 different global problems have to be faced in the next decade(s):
 shortage of resources
 population growth / economic growth
 climate change
 increasing dependency on imports of primary energy carriers
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Statement of EU comission
„The third priority identified in the Green Paper goes to the heart of a
European energy policy, the EU’s energy mix. How to reconcile the fact
that the choice of a Member States energy mix is and will remain a
question of subsidiarity with the reality that choices made by one Member
State inevitably have an impact on the energy security of its neighbours
and of the Community as a whole? For example, decisions to rely largely
or wholly on natural gas for power generation in any given Member State
have significant effects on the security of supply of its neighbours in the
event of a gas shortage. Decisions by Member States relating to nuclear
energy can also have very significant consequences on other Member
States in terms of the EU’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and CO2
emissions. In reality, therefore, a European approach on the EU’s energy
mix is vital, that nonetheless respects subsidiarity.“
Source: Andris Piebalgs /Energy Commissioner
A Common Energy Policy for Europe
EU Energy Policy and Law Conference
Brussels, 9 March 2006
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Share
of total
primary
energy
supply
inindifferent
Share
of Total
Primary
Energy
Supply
2003
EU countries
120
100
Coal
PV/Wind
REN
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
80
% 60
40
20
0
Germany Netherlands
Italy
Spain
United
Kingdom
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
France
Austria
Czech
Republic
Sweden
Greece
Source IEA 2003.
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
EU-25 energy use (in Mtoe)
rest
REN
nuclear power
gas
oil
coal / lignite
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Challenges of Energy Policy
Competitveness
Security of Supply
Prices
Environmental Protection
Availability
Emissions
Innovation + Diversification + Competition
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Recommendations (I)
1. Return to a national energy policy is no longer possible due to
increasing interdependences

But is it necessary to create a common European energy
policy?
2. Co-operation in energy policy and climate change issues is
essential for European Union

Energy policy has to be seen in a global context: geopolitics of
oil/gas is back!

How to integrate the USA in climate protection regime? New
strategies?
3. Dependence can be reduced only by diversification and intelligent
use of energy

increase energy efficiency, use of REN, nuclear energy ,and
CCS
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Recommendations (II)
4. Global and European context: to be aware of the emerging problems
of the transport sector

Do we have alternatives to hydrocarbons?

How to reduce emissions?
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake
Forschungszentrum Jülich
in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
Conclusions
 Not one solution, but some features are clear
We need:
 Energy Efficiency … available at which cost?
 Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage?
 Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs, higher
availability?
 Nuclear Energy … safe waste management?
 H2 & Fuel Cells … lower cost and technical advances?
 Fusion … maybe, in the very long term?
Need to pursue a “Portfolio” approach for policy,
technology deployment and R&D
IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)
J.-F. Hake