Transcript bis_marinez - Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental

Global Climate Change Consequences
for Cerrado Tree Species
Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira
Centro de Referência em Informação
Ambiental - CRIA
Biodiversity Consequences of
Global Climate Change
In this study we applied a
technique that can be called
ecological niche modeling to
generate predictive models of
species’
potential
future
geographic distributions.
Climate Change and Biodiversity
• Climate change involve a complex
combination of warming, augmented
climatic variability, extreme event, etc.
• Biodiversity
consequences
are
unknown, although are thought to be
potentially serious involving drastic
reductions and extinctions for many
species.
Methodology
• HadCM2 General Circulation Model – two scenarios
used
– HHGSDX50 - 0.5%/yr CO2, sulphate aerosol forcing
– HHGGAX50 - 1%/yr CO2, no sulfate aerosols forcing
• 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution
• Nine base environmental coverages
• 162 species – all trees with >30 points (Projeto de
Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da
Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA
Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido
database)
Ecological Niche Modeling and
Predicting Geographic Distributions
Temperature
Ecology
Ecological niche model
Precipitation
Geography
GARP
Project
climate
change
Distributional points
Distributional
prediction
Changed climate
projection
Methodology
• Build ecological models for each species using
GARP based on present-day coverages
• Predict and characterize present-day geographic
distribution of each species
• Adjust geographic coverages according to
projections of large-scale models of global climate
change
• Project distributions of each species onto adjusted
geographic coverages
• Compare and contrast present-day and projected
distributions across the entire suite of species
Present Temperature Regime
Projected Changes in Temperature
Present Precipitation Regime
Projected Precipitation Changes
Atlapetes virenticeps Distributional Points
0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504
IF
- Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314
IF
+ Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122
IF
- Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028
IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019
IF Elev=[1937,3241]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013
IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000
IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
Atlapetes virenticeps:
Rule set for prediction
Atlapetes virenticeps Predicted Geographic Distribution
0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504
IF
- Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314
IF
+ Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122
IF
- Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028
IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019
IF Elev=[1937,3241]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013
IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]r
THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND
5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000
IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]r
THEN Taxon=PRESENT
Atlapetes virenticeps:
Rule set for prediction
Atlapetes virenticeps Model Projected on Adjusted Coverages
Atlapetes virenticeps Before vs. After
Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and
future (2055) distributions of Acosmium subelegans
Area projected to
remain habitable in
2055 (DX scenario)
Area projected to
remain habitable in
2055 (AX scenario)
Examples of predictions of present (1961-1990) and
future (2055) distributions of cerrado tree species
Qualea parvifolia
Rapanea guianensis
Patterns of predicted species richness among the 162
species of cerrado trees analyzed in the core
distributional area of cerrado at the present (19611990)
Patterns of predicted species richness in a
climate change scenario
HHGSDX50 climate
change scenario =
144 species
HHGGAX50 climate
change scenario =
106 species
Consequences for the 162 tree
species analysed
• DX Scenario:
– 18 species were predicted to end up without
habitable areas (extinction in cerrado).
– 91 species were predicted to decline by >90% in
potential distributional area in the cerrado region.
• AX Scenario:
– 56 were predicted to end up without habitable areas
in the cerrado region (extinction in cerrado).
– 123 species were predicted to decline by >90% in
potential distributional area in the cerrado region.
Relationship of severity of prediction of climate
change consequences in the HHGSDX50 and
HHGGAX50 scenarios.
Percent of distributional area (AX scenario)
100
75
50
25
0
0
25
50
75
Percent of distributional area (DX scenario)
100
Mexican Birds, Mammals, Butterflies
200
No dispersal
175
HHGGAX50
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
0
25
50
75
100
HHGSDX50
125
150
175
200
Canada Butterflies – Current
Species Richness
Compare Maximum Species
Richness:
Present with HSDX 2020
2020
Present
Mountains vs Flatlands
Pygmy
Steller’s
Jay
after
before
Steller’sNuthatch
Jay after
before
Mountains vs Flatlands
Baird’sPrairie-Chicken
Lesser
Sparrow after
before after
before
Mountains vs Flatlands
Centroid Distance - No Dispersal
14
12
12
10
10
Frequency
Frequency
Percent Change - No Dispersal
8
6
4
8
6
4
2
2
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent change
70
80
90
0
50
100
150
200
250
Distance (km)
300
350
Climate Change and Biodiversity
• Species respond in manners that are quite
individual to climate change ... General
tendencies are not absolute
• Seriousness of effects varies drastically
among regions
• Effects appear to be in general worse in
flatlands regions, and not as serious in
montane regions
• Conservation implications remain almost
completely unexplored ...
Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado
Tree Species at Present
Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face
of changing climates, based on DX scenario of
global climate change
3 species
6 species
7 species
38 species
87 species
Prioritization of areas for conservation in the face
of changing climates, based on AX scenario of
global climate change
8 species
63 species
32 species
Hotspot of Predicted Species Richness among Cerrado
Tree Species at Present
Patterns of predicted species richness in a
climate change scenario
HHGSDX50 climate
change scenario =
145 species
HHGGAX50 climate
change scenario =
108 species
São Paulo Museum of Cerrado Tree Diversity????
Lightest red = 81120 sepcies
Light red = 121 –
140 species
Red = > 140
species
Black = patches of the
cerrado vegetation type
Acknowledgments
Many thanks to the team of researchers involved in the
Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo
da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado – EMBRAPA
Cerrados – UnB – Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido for
their generosity in making occurrence data available to
us.
Prof. Dr. A. Townsend Peterson - Natural History Museum
and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of
Kansas, to help with modelling.