Transcript A few things before we (really) start

Population displacements
and security risks
Session 4
Introduction
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Throughout history, men have always migrated for
environmental reasons
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But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and
policy makers.
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Despite growing concerns
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Linkage between environment and migration still controversial
Historical examples
The emergence of the concept
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First mentioned in the 1970s
First UNEP report in 1985
Growing interest in the mid-2000s:
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Realisation of the impacts of climate change
Major natural disasters
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Tsunami 2004
Katrina 2005
Pakistan earthquake 2005
> Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and
other environmental degradation.
A complex relationship
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Migration itself is a very complex process
Involves a wide array of factors, individual decision
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Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and
political factors
When is environmental pressure the primary factor?
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Environmental disruption can be a cause and a
consequence of migration
Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,...
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Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources
Which impacts of
climate change
can lead to
displacements?
1. Sea-level rise
Coastal regions will be first and most affected
A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement
Source: NASA
2. Droughts and land degradation
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Impacts on migration difficult to forecast
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Migration flows tend to
decrease at the peak of
droughts
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That’s because
households affect their
resources to primary
needs.
3. Extreme meteorological events
Who and where?
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In 2012, more than 32 million people were displaced by natural
disasters, most of them climate-related.
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Mostly people who live in coastal floodplains:
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Already a major trigger for displacement.
Many major cities (Shanghai, Mumbai,...)
South and East Asia (Bangladesh,Vietnam,...)
African coastline (Nile delta, West coast)
SIDS
This in addition to those who will be temporarily displaced
Characteristics of the migrants
Empirical results from the EACH-FOR project
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Positive relationship between environmental degradation and
migration.
Different factors intermingle, but environmental factors are of
growing importance.
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These factors increase the constraints to migration
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Rise in forced migration
Migration flows are often internal, and happening on short distances
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Definitional issue
Affected countries bear all the burden of migration.
The most vulnerable are often unable to migrate.
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Migration is expensive
Issue of the definition
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Difficult
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Controversial
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Mostly internal migration
Mingles with other factors
Alarmists vs sceptics
A broad definition invites large numbers
Different agendas
Wide variety of terms (often misnomers)
Important
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Policy-wise
Allows to forecast numbers
A disconnection from the realities of migration
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Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate
change.
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Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure
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In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy
We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and
migration.
We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.
We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will
depend upon the impacts of climate change.
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Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to
be considered as such.
Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable
Environmental determinism
Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security.
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In many cases, it can actually improve human security.
‘Climate refugees’ as the human faces of
global warming
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Migrants are often portrayed
as expiatory, powerless
victims of climate change.
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They are also the first
witnesses of climate change,
the living proofs that global
warming is under way.
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The idea of a multi-causal
migration doesn’t get along
very well with this rhetoric.
London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London
A ‘disaster ready for consumption’
(Farbotko 2011)
Policy responses: Different directions
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Environmental policies
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Rapid evolution since the 1990s
People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change
increasingly taken into account
New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation
in climate talks
New instruments:
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Hyogo Framework
Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters
Adaptation Funds
> Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum
with regard to environmental migration
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Migration and asylum policies
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Have not really taken into account environmental factors so
far
Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new
instruments
Exception: temporary protection status
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Two points to consider:
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Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind
Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than
environmental scholars
Legal matters
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People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to
the 1951 Geneva Convention:
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No political persecution
 But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most
vulnerable?
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Not always a border crossing
 The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country
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Forced migration?
 Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between
forced and voluntary migration.
The Nansen Initiative
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Launched in 2012 by the
governement of Norway and
Switzerland.
With support of Costa Rica,
Australia, Philippines, Mexico,
Kenya.
Walter Kälin as special
envoy.
Intergovernmental process.
Goal: a protection agenda by
2015.
Two key policy issues
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Enabling the right to leave
Enabling the right to choose
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This will require different policy shifts:
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Going beyond humanitarian aid
Not discriminating between displacements associated with
climate change and those that are not.
Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.)
Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who
stay, sometimes forcibly.
Enabling the right to leave
A challenge of migration policy
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The right to leave is the key condition of asylum,
originating after the Peace of Westphalia.
This right is currently jeopardised by environmental
change.
The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to
leave
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Because they don’t have the resources to do so
Because of barriers to migration
Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to
danger
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Migration as a risk-reduction strategy
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Issue of pro-active population displacements
Enabling the right to choose
A challenge of adaptation policy
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Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of
the stayers are forced stayers.
Adaptation
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In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental
constraints to migration.
Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy.
Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.
Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction
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Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs.
No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.
Displacements as a source of conflicts?
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Increased pressure on resources
Happens mostly within weak, fragile states
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Ex: Darfur
Cumulative process: comes on top of socioeconomic, poltical issues
Importance of the governance of migration
Threats to stability and security
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Increase in the number of weak and fragile states
Risk for global economic development
Distributional conflict between polluters and sufferers
Human rights violations / Crises of legitimacy
Migration
Inter-state conflicts (destabilisation processes, state failures)
Migration does not have to be the missing link between
climate impacts and conflicts.
 And, in any case, is not the sole trigger.
 Migration also represents an improvement of human security
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