Transcript CGE work relevant to vulnerability and adaptation

CGE Work Relevant to
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Presented by Taka Hiraishi on behalf of CGE
at the
EGTT Seminar on the development and transfer of
environmentally sound technologies for adaptation to
Climate Change
Tobago, Trinidad & Tobago, 14-16 June, 2005
Contents
• Vulnerability and Adaptation in Non-Annex I
National Communications
• Consultative Group of Experts on Non-Annex I
National Communications (CGE)
• Technology Needs Assessment – viewed by CGE
• CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and
Adaptation: Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop
2
Vulnerability and Adaptation in nonAnnex I National Communications
(NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex)
• Para 28: Non-Annex I Parties shall, in accordance with Article
12, para 1(b) and (c), of the Convention, provide to the COP
information on the general steps taken or envisaged towards
formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating
national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing
measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, and
any other information …...
• Para 29: In doing so, non-Annex I Parties should provide
information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of
climate change, and on adaptation measures being undertaken to
meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse
3
effects.
NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex
(cont’d): Methods
• Para 30: Non-annex I Parties may use appropriate
methodologies and guidelines they consider better able to
reflect their national situation for assessing their vulnerability
and adaptation to climate change, provided that these
methodologies and guidelines are consistent, transparent and
well documented.
• Paragraph 31: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to use, for
the evaluation of adaptation strategies and measures,
appropriate methodologies they consider better able to reflect
their national situation, provided that these methodologies are
consistent, transparent and well documented.
4
NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex
(cont’d): More information.
•
•
•
Para 32: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on the scope
of their vulnerability and adaptation assessment, including identification of
vulnerable areas that are most critical
Para 33: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to include a description of
approaches, methodologies and tools used, including scenarios for the assessment
of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, as well as any
uncertainties inherent in these methodologies
Para 34: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on their
vulnerability to the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change in key
vulnerable areas. Information should include key findings, and direct and indirect
effects arising from climate change, allowing for an integrated analysis of the
country’s vulnerability to climate change
Para 35: Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on and, to
the extent possible, evaluation of, strategies and measures for adapting to climate
change, in key areas including those which are of the highest priority
Para 36: Where relevant, Parties may report on the use of policy frameworks, such
as national adaptation programmes, plans and policies for developing and
5
implementing adaptation strategies and measures.
The CGE: Its Mandate
• Under decision 3/CP.8, the Consultative Group of
Experts (CGE) is mandated to:
(a) examine National Communications (NC) with the view to
improving the consistency of information provided relative
to Vulnerability & Adaptation (V & A), Mitigation
activities and GHG inventory;
(b) note the reporting of other information under the new
guidelines 17/CP.8 such as transfer of technology;
(c) identify and assess technical problems and constraints;
(d) provide technical advice and support, by organizing and
conducting workshops, including hands-on training
workshops at the regional or sub-regional level; and
(e) Provide technical advice to the SBI. . .
6
Members of the CGE
• The CGE comprises 24 experts as follows:
– Five members from each of the regions of nonAnnex I Parties, namely Africa, Asia and the Pacific,
and Latin America and the Caribbean;
– Six members from Parties included in Annex I to
the Convention (Annex I) Parties, including one
from countries with economies in transition;
– One member from each of the three international
organizations with relevant experience in providing
technical assistance to non-Annex I Parties in the
preparation of national communications.
7
Thematic Groups of the CGE
To facilitate its work, the CGE created four
thematic groups:
(a) Vulnerability and Adaptation
(b) Greenhouse Gas Inventory
(c) Mitigation
(d) Cross-Cutting Issues
8
V&A Thematic Group Members
Ms. Madeleine Diouf, Senegal
Mr. Carlos Fuller, Belize
Mr. Mahendra Kumar, UNEP
Ms. Marilia Manjate, Mozambique
Mr. Alexander Pisarenko, Ukraine
Mr. Arthur Rolle, Bahamas
Mr. Othmar Schwank, Switzerland
9
Technology Needs Assessment –
viewed by CGE
• During the Top-up phase many NA1 Parties
conducted Technology Needs Assessment
(TNA).
• Financial, institutional and policy needs were
addressed for technology options proposed
under TNA.
• Project proposals and /or ideas were identified
under the TNA.
10
Sectors Identified during the TNA
Exercise
• The sectors that some Parties felt the need to
evaluate technology were;
(a) water resources
(b) forestry
(c) agriculture
(d) coastal zone
(e) energy
(f) transport, and
(g) tourism.
11
CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability
and Adaptation
Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop
• At the Hands-on Training Workshop (Maputo,
Mozambique, 18-22 April 2005), the CGE
provided training on vulnerability and
assessments for the African Region to
determine the vulnerability of the following
sectors;
– water, health, coastal zones and
agriculture.
12
Maputo Training Workshop (cont’d)
• 40 hours of training over a 5-day period
was given to 55 participants.
• Fundamental information, modelling
softwares and tools for V&A were
provided.
• Information was presented on the
experience and know-how by
representatives from Kenya, Burkina
Faso, Lesotho, Egypt and the Seychelles.
13
Training materials
• Such as: . . .
14
Statistical Downscaling Model
(SDSM)
• May only be
feasible based on
outputs from a few
GCMs
15
MAGICC/SCENGEN
• MAGICC is 1-D model of
global T and SLR
• Based on IPCC TAR
• SCENGEN uses pattern
scaling for 17 GCMs
• Yield
– Model by model
changes
– Mean change
– Intermodel SD
– Interannual variability
changes
16
IPCC Data Distribution Center
• IPCC Data Distribution Centre appears to be the best site
for climate model data
• Observed climate data 1901-1990
– Gridded to 0.5 x 0.5°
– 10 and 30 year means
• GCM data from
– CCC (Canada)
– CSIRO (Australia)
– ECHAM4 (Germany)
– GFDL-R30 (U.S.)
– HadCM3 (UK)
– NIES (Japan)
• Can obtain actual (not scaled) GCM output
17
Hydrologic Implications of CC
for Water Resources
• Precipitation amount
– Global average increase
– Marked regional differences
• Precipitation frequency and intensity
– Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et
al., 2002)
• Evaporation and transpiration
– Increase total evaporation
– Regional complexities due to
plant/atmosphere interactions
18
Hydrologic Implications of CC
for Water Resources
(continued)
• Changes in runoff
– Despite global precipitation increases,
areas of substantial runoff decreases
• Coastal zones
– Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers
– Severe storm-surge flooding
• Water quality
– Lower flows, could lead to higher
contaminant concentrations
– Higher flows could lead to greater
leaching and sediment transport
19
Agriculture: Practical Use of
Models and Tools
• What components of the farming system are
particularly vulnerable and may thus require
special attention? – crop models
(e.g., DSSAT)
• Can the water/irrigation systems meet the
stress of changes in water supply/demand? –
irrigation models (e.g., CROPWAT)
• Will climate significantly affect domestic
agriculture? – model integration; GIS
integration (e.g., deriving
response functions)
20
Health: Methods
• Baseline climatology determined
• COSMIC was used to generate Zimbabwe-specific
scenarios of climate change; changes were added
to baseline climatology
• Outputs from COSMIC were used as inputs for the
MARA/ARMA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa)
model of climate suitability for stable Plasmodium
falciparum malaria transmission
21
Health: Other Models
• MIASMA
– Global malaria model
• CiMSiM and DENSim for dengue
– Weather and habitat-driven entomological
simulation model that links with a simulation
model of human population dynamics to
project disease outbreaks
22
Also at Maputo
• The draft terms of references for the
development of training materials for
vulnerability and adaptation assessments
were discussed.
23
Recommendations from the Maputo Workshop
• Based on the success of the Maputo workshop, to conduct a
similar one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• The Secretariat to seek financial support to enable a full
complement of participants to attend.
• To develop and include into the V&A training materials a matrix
of the strengths and weaknesses of methodologies/ tools to assess
V&A, including suitability under different circumstances;
• To widen the scope of the training materials to cover all major
significant impacts of climate change,
• To ensure that the models used for the training are available in the
public domain and can be easily demonstrated; and
• To ensure that the V&A training materials are updated as new
climate change regional models are made available.
24