Transcript Slide 1
The feasibility of avoiding future climate impacts: key results from the AVOID1 and 2 programmes Jason A. Lowe, Rachel Warren, Nigel Arnell, Simon Buckle, Ajay Gambhir and the AVOID network Further details E-mail [email protected] Funded by Overview of AVOID1 and 2 Supported UK’s international engagement Informed UK’s position at international climate change negotiations Supported the setting of the UK’s carbon budgets • Established in 2009 to provide tailored scientific information on feasibility, benefits and side effects of mitigation • Synthesises information from a wide range of sources • Considered climate science, impacts and socio-economic aspects • AVOID2 began in 2014 to provide information along the pathway to Paris and CoP21 AVOID2 approach: Integrated assessment but not just another IAM • What are the characteristics of potentially dangerous climate change? • How much can mitigation reduce climate change and impacts? • How feasible are different amounts of mitigation? Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways The database does not provide uniform sampling of pathways 2020 emissions of 50 GtCO2eq cover a wide range of median warming Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways 450 400 other 350 offshore wind onshore wind 250 solar CSP 200 solar PV 150 hydro nuclear 100 biomass w/ CCS 50 biomass w/o CCS 2010 2020 2030 2050 2100 WITCH MESSAGE-GLOBIOM TIAM-Grantham WITCH MESSAGE-GLOBIOM TIAM-Grantham WITCH MESSAGE-GLOBIOM TIAM-Grantham WITCH MESSAGE-GLOBIOM TIAM-Grantham WITCH MESSAGE-GLOBIOM TIAM-Grantham EJ/year 300 We have led a post AR5 intercomparison of emission reduction feasibility: Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS coal w/ CCS coal w/o CCS • TIAM • WITCH • MESSAGE oil w/o CCS +GAINS for non-CO2 Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget? Many earth system processes are not routinely included in scenario development, But AR5 did provide some useful information Equilibrium climate sensitivity remains very uncertain Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget? Key result 2- How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget? Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Most scenarios that limit warming to lower levels have large BECCs contribution Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES Uses 5% of land area Uses 4% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Excluding GL and ANT Uses 18% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Estimated•Achieving 2100 BECCs potential with the no CCS in HadGEM2ES 166 GtC over 21stlimit Century appears to be highly challenging. •The most productive areas globally are the tropics. •Biophysical cooling associated with deforestation may have benefits to stabilising climate at low levels. Uses 5% of land area Uses 4% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Excluding GL and ANT Uses 18% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation? Water availability Exposure to river floods Crop yields Cooling demand Coastal flooding Ocean acidification J Roff Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation? The AVOID 2 consortium 28/03/2016