climate change - Adaptation Scotland

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Transcript climate change - Adaptation Scotland

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Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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What is Climate Change Adaptation?
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Climate Change Policy Context
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
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Required by the UK Climate Change Act 2008;
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Will assess risks to the UK of current and predicted impacts
of climate change to 2100;
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First assessment due in January 2012;
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A statutory adaptation programme will be produced
following publication of the assessment.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Adaptation framework sector action plans
Agriculture
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Resilience
Business and Industry
Emergency and Rescue Services
Energy
Forests and Forestry
Health and Wellbeing
Marine and Fisheries
Spatial Planning and Land Use
The Built Environment
Transport
Water Resource Management
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Public Bodies Climate Change Duties
‘All public bodies need to be resilient to the future climate
and to plan for business continuity in relation to the
delivery of their functions and the services they deliver to
the wider community’.
Public Bodies Climate Change Duties: Putting them into practice,
Scottish Government 2011
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Scotland’s Climate Change Declaration
Local authority commitments to adaptation
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Ensuring that greenhouse gas emissions reduction and
climate change adaptation measures are clearly
incorporated into our new and existing strategies, plans and
programmes, in line with sustainable development
principles.
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Assessing the risks and opportunities for our services and
our communities of predicted climate change scenarios and
impacts, and take action to adapt accordingly in line with
sustainable development principles.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Scotland’s Climate Change Declaration
Local authority commitments to adaptation
•
Encouraging and working with others in our local community
to take action to adapt to the impact of climate change, to
reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions and make public
their commitment to action.
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Collaborating with other organisations to promote good
practice on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Climate Information
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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What is the difference between weather and climate?
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
Robert A. Heinlein
Climate is a long term average of weather (usually over 30 years) and trends in
these average conditions are climate change.
Weather is what we experience hour-to-hour, day-to-day or even year-to-year,
and as anyone living in Scotland will know, it can be highly variable.
On occasion weather may even appear at odds with long-term climate change
(e.g. cold winter months in 2010). However, short-term variations aren’t
unexpected now or even well into the future.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Change in Global Average Temperature 1850-2010
©
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Scotland’s Climate Has Already Changed
Observed Change in Scotland’s Climate (1914-2004)*
Temperature
Recent temperatures for Scotland are the highest in the records, with
average annual temperature increasing 1 °C between 1961 and 2004. This
applies across all seasons.
Rainfall
Annual precipitation in Scotland increased by 21% between 1961 and
2004, with an almost 70% increase in winter precipitation for Northern
Scotland. Heavy rainfall events have increased significantly in winter,
particularly in northern and western regions.
Snow Cover
There has been a 25% reduction in winter days with snow cover, with
even larger percentage decreases in spring and autumn. The snow season
has shortened, starting later and finishing earlier in the year.
Frost Days
Since 1961 there has been a more than 25% reduction in the number of
frost days across Scotland, with downward trend since the 1980s.
Growing Season
The growing season is now nearly 5 weeks longer in Scotland (comparing
1961 to 2004), with the greatest change occurring at the beginning of the
season.
Sea Level**
Sea level at all of Scotland’s ports has been rising over the last century,
with the rate accelerating over the last two decades (now exceeding 3-4
mm/yr in 9 out of 10 ports).
*The source A Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland (SNIFFER, 2006) compiles and analyses observed
climate data across Scotland over the last century (1914-2004), providing a benchmark of observed climate
trends for Scotland. For further information, see: www.climatetrendshandbook.sccip.org.uk
**Recent analysis of sea level trends by Rennie and Hansom (2011)
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Change in Precipitation between 1961 and 2004
Winter
Summer
The source A Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland (SNIFFER, 2006) compiles and analyses observed climate
data across Scotland over the last century (1914-2004), providing a benchmark of observed climate trends for
Scotland. For further information, see: www.climatetrendshandbook.sccip.org.uk
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) are the latest
generation of climate information for the United Kingdom
and provide information about changes in climate
projected for this century.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Projections of Future Climate Change
The key climate change trends for Scotland are:
• Hotter, drier summers;
• Milder, wetter autumn and winters.
We can also expect to see:
• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and
drought;
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation
events;
• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall;
• Sea level rise.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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2050s
summer mean temperature
2.3°C
(1.1°C – 3.9°C)
London has summer mean temperature
3.5°C warmer than Edinburgh
(comparing baseline 1961-1990)
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Hotter, Drier Summers
50% probability level
central estimate
10% probability level
very unlikely
to be less than
90% probability level
very unlikely
to be more than
Change in Summer Mean Daily Temperature (°C)
2080s - High Emissions (A1F1)
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Milder, Wetter Autumn and Winters
50% probability level
central estimate
10% probability level
very unlikely
to be less than
90% probability level
very unlikely
to be more than
Change in Winter Mean Precipitation (%)
2080s - High Emissions (A1F1)
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Reduced Frost and Snowfall
Extreme Precipitation Events
Increased Flooding
Heatwaves & Extreme Temp.
Drought & Water Shortages
Sea Level Rise
Image courtesy of Dundee City Council
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Climate change is global...
...and this will have wide-ranging implications for Scotland
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Impacts of Climate Change
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Buildings need to be fit for purpose in a future climate
Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate,
needing to cope with more extreme summer temperatures,
intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm
patterns. This will require appropriate design and building
standards, but also adaptation of existing building stock.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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The natural environment has a critical role in
responding to the challenges of climate change
In a changing climate action is required to secure the
ecosystem services that support the economy and
contribute to the quality of life in Scotland, as well as
reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
Local initiatives include the promotion of green networks
which include space for natural flood management and
wildlife corridors.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Water environment and resource management will
become more complex
Increases in the variability of river flows, intensity of rainfall
events, surface water flooding, sea level rise, seasonality of
rainfall and intervals of drought will present numerous and
complex challenges.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Rising seas threaten Scotland’s coastal communities
and infrastructure
Sea level rise may lead to widespread impacts on Scotland’s
coast, including potential for increased erosion and coastline
retreat. Integrated coastal zone management that accounts
for the impacts of rising sea level will be important in
managing risks to infrastructure and assets near the coast.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Effective land use and development planning has a
critical role in adapting to a changing climate
Planning can ensure that new developments minimise
vulnerability to climate change, as well as improving the
resilience of existing infrastructure and communities.
It will need to balance competing pressures on land use to
achieve continued sustainable economic growth.
Adapting to Climate Change
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Climate change may damage infrastructure and
disrupt transport networks
The potential for increased flooding, erosion and landslides,
storms and wind, and rising sea levels may damage the
transport infrastructure and lead to disruption and delays
for a large number of users. Organisations need to consider
how this might affect the delivery of vital services.
Adapting to Climate Change
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The demands on emergency and rescue services will
change
In a changing climate emergency services may need to
respond to an increased frequency and severity of flooding,
landslide and wildfire events. There may also be changes in
social and recreational behaviour that present new
challenges to the emergency and rescue services.
Organisations need to consider whether planning, staff,
equipment and resources can respond to changing
pressures.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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The demands on emergency and rescue services will
change
As the climate changes so will the challenges to the health
and wellbeing of individuals and communities across
Scotland. In particular, climate change may lead to more
disruptive flooding events and an increased occurrence of
other weather related impacts in Scotland.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Next Steps
Adapting to Climate Change
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Benefits of a planned approach
By taking early action to adapt our organisation can:
- Implement actions that will assist with full filling the
public bodies climate change duties (section 44 Climate
Change (Scotland) Act 2009);
- Identify services, facilities, locations and communities
that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts;
- Identify cost effective actions that build resilience;
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Benefits of a planned approach
- Improve the capacity of stakeholder organisations to
adapt to the impacts of climate change;
- Ensure that climate change impacts are considered as
part of business continuity and emergency planning;
- Exploit business opportunities that may emerge as a
result of changes in climate;
- Maintain reputation for delivering quality and effective
services in spite of the challenge of climate change.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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First steps to developing a planned approach
Assessing the impacts of recent past weather events
- How have we been impacted by recent past weather
events?
- How might we be affected by the projected changes in
climate – a first look at impacts?
This assessment can be done by carrying out a Local
Climate Impact Profile project or undertaking a series of
workshops with key departments and stakeholders.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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First steps to developing a planned approach
Reviewing existing plans and policies
- Are we already doing work that will help us adapt to
climate change?
- Are there plans / policies already in place that should
include actions to help us adapt to climate change?
This review can help us to identify where we are doing
well and highlight opportunities for integrating adaptation
effectively into appropriate plans and policies.
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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SCCIP Partnership:
Thank you
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Optional Extras
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Winter
Summer
Perth
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
Winter
Summer
Aviemore
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction
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Winter
Summer
Glasgow
Adapting to Climate Change
An Introduction