Transcript Percent of Grid Energy in 2030 Technology

World Environment Day
by Scott Sklar
President, The Stella Group, Ltd.
www.TheStellaGroupLtd.com
www.StellaCapitalLLC.com
E-mail: [email protected]
at National Geographic, Grosvenor Auditorium
Washington, DC.
June 5, 2007
Scott Sklar is Chair of the Steering Committee of the Sustainable Energy Coalition
and serves on the (non-profit) Boards of Directors of the Sustainable Buildings
Industry Council, the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, and the Renewable
Energy Policy Project as well as S3dif, Bangalore, Boston.
GHG - SOURCES
Figure 3: Sources of Anthropogenic GHG Emissions
Waste Disposal
Residential & Commercial
Transportation
Agriculture
Electric Power
Industrial Processes
02%
12%
14%
20%
20%
32%
Sources: Distribution to sectors for CO2, CH4, and N2O is
from EDGAR, 2000. All other GHGs are assumed to be from
industrial processes.
Multiple Benefits: Local Picture
• Distributed generation - near the users
• Power quality - no surges, sags, transients
• Power reliability - back-up - augmentation
• Dedicated to uniquely high energy rates
expressed in demand charges, peak
power and ratchet rates
• Lower noise, emissions, waste streams
ENERGY (r)evolution
• January 2007 - Greenpeace/EREC commissioned DLR
(German NASA)
• Economically feasible to cut global
CO2 by 50% within the next 43 years
• Massive utilization of energy efficiency
• Massive uptake in renewable energy in
all areas - transp, bdgs, gen, indust, ag
www.greenpeace.org
ASES Study (continued)
CARBON OFFSET CONTRIBUTIONS (in MtC/yr in 2030)
(based on middle range of carbon conversions)
• Energy efficiency
688
• Concentrating solar power
63
• Photovoltaics
63
• Wind
181
• Biofuels
58
• Biomass
75
• Geothermal
83
Tackling Climate Change in US
• NREL papers commissioned by ASES
and the Sierra Club released in Feb 2007
• Ability to achieve emission cuts between
60 - 80% of current levels thru energy
efficiency and renewable energy options
• Two scenarios thru 2030 and 2050
www.ases.org
- continued -
U.S. Renewable Electricity
Generation in 2030
Technology
Concentrating Solar Power*
Photovoltaics
Wind
Percent of Grid
Energy in 2030
7
7
20
Biomass*
8
Geothermal*
9
Total
51
*Can provide baseload or near-baseload power
U.S. Carbon Emissions Displacement Potential from Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030
57% Energy Efficiency, 43% Renewables
"All companies have a duty to
provide shareholders with more
analysis and disclosure on climate
risks and their strategies for
managing or mitigating those risks,"
said Dr. Julie Fox Gorte, vice president
and chief social investment strategist
at Calvert.
IEA: GLOBALSOLAR WATER HEATING
•
10 November 2004. The International Energy Agency’s Solar Heating and
Cooling Programme and major solar thermal trade associations publish new
statistics on the use of solar thermal energy. The new data – expressed for the
first time in GWth, rather than in square meters of installed collector area –
shows the global installed capacity to be 70 GWth (70.000 MWth).
•
"Now the solar thermal capacity should show up in all statistics alongside the
capacities of other renewable energies", says ESTIF President Ole Pilgaard.
"And seeing that the world wide capacity of solar thermal installations exceeds
even that of wind power, people will realise that our technology can contribute
tremendously to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and to making the global
energy supply more sustainable."
Biomass - BioFuels
•
Fort Collins, Colorado [RenewableEnergyAccess.com] 2007-04-11 Researchers at Colorado
State University and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service have
completed an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from biofuel production. Study results
revealed that when compared with the life cycle of gasoline and diesel, ethanol and
biodiesel from corn and soybean rotations reduced greenhouse gas emission by nearly 40
percent, reed canarygrass by 85 percent, and switchgrass and hybrid poplar by 115 percent.
•
Hybrid poplar and switchgrass were found to offset the largest amounts of fossil fuels and
therefore reduced emissions the most out of the studied crops.
•
Researchers were able to use life cycle analyses and the DAYCENT model to account for all
of these factors as well as integrate climate, soil properties and land use to accurately
evaluate the impact of bioenergy cropping systems on crop production, soil organic carbon
and greenhouse gas fluxes. The study was published in the April 2007 issue of Ecological
Applications. For Further Information National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
www.nrel.gov
PEW CLIMATE STUDY: US 2006
•
Pew Center Study Addresses Global Climate Change
•
Washington, DC [RenewableEnergyAccess.com] 2006-02-22 In a report from the Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, a culmination of a two-year effort that articulates a
pragmatic course of action across all areas of the economy, is the first comprehensive plan
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.
NOTE:
The report concludes that there is no single technology fix, no
single policy instrument, and no single sector that can solve this
problem on its own. Rather, a combination of technology investment
•
and market development
Among the many recommendations, in connection with
area of energy and electricity, is a call: "Incentives and a nationwide
platform to track and trade renewable energy credits are
recommended to support increased renewable power."
Conclusions
• Energy efficiency can negate emissions growth
• Renewables can provide significant deep cuts in emissions
• The world is blessed with abundant renewable resources spread throughout
the globe - with decentralized applications having the greatest near term
impact and larger, centralized applications having longer term benefits
• Renewables can provide ~1/2 of global energy; remaining split about
evenly among the renewable resources
• EE and RE can begin today to tackle global warming
• Continued R&D and policy support will help these technologies achieve
their large future potential, tied to aggressive tax and tariff policies