Transcript Slides

Climate Change: Ocean Impacts
on Public Health
Climate Change Health Summit
Washington, DC
September 20, 2015
Donald F. Boesch
A Global Warming Pause?
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2015
Virtually Certain Temperature Record
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Ocean Heating Has Been Steady
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Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean
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How Much Will it Warm?
It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit.
Global average surface temperature
7.2°F
Unrestrained growth in emissions
RCP8.5
3.6°F
Rapid emissions reductions
RCP2.6
www.ipcc.ch
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Changes Will Vary Greatly
RCP8.5 Scenario for 2081-2100
Annual mean surface temperature
[Chesapeake region warms more than
global average, up to 8°F!]
Average percent change in annual
mean precipitation
[~10% increase in Chesapeake region,
mainly winter-spring]
www.ipcc.ch
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A Warmer Chesapeake Bay
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Extensive Effects of Ocean Warming
Anomalously warm surface
water in NE Pacific in 2015
•Drought in California
•Heat waves in NW US
•Effects on salmon stocks
•Harmful algal blooms
•Pacific Decadal Oscillation
•El Niño
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Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years
meters
0.4
Tide gauges
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Paleo-reconstruction
-0.4
Less than 1 foot in 2,000 years
Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci
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Recent Sea-Level Rise
Since 1992 sea level
rising more than twice
as fast as for the 20th
century as a whole.
sealevel.colorado.edu
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Factors That Influence Sea-Level Change
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How Much Will the Seas Rise?
Unrestrained
emissions
Rapid
reductions
Horton et al. 2013 Quaternary Science Reviews 84:1
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Effects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting
Expected change in sea level for
a given loss of ice mass from
Greenland and Antarctica.
Greenland
West Antarctica
Paradoxically, sea-level rise is
greatest farthest from the source.
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Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level
Tide gauge level trends
Gulf Stream strength
Based on work of Tal Ezer and
colleagues, Old Dominion University
J. Geophysical Research 118:685
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Vertical Land Motion--Glaciation
Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising.
Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are
now sinking.
Late Interglacial
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How Much Will Sea Level Rise
in the Chesapeake Bay?
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climatechange.maryland.gov
Consequences of Sea-Level Rise
Light blue: salt marshes
Greens: < 2 m, susceptible to innundation
Orange-yellow: 2-4 m,
susceptible to storm
surge
Greater Bay volume,
ocean
influence
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RSM Program
Sea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe
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Climate Change & Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters
Tropical cyclones might actually become
M
less frequent, but more powerful.
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Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100
RCP4.5
300
21st century
Sea-level change (cm above 2000)
400
200
Stabilization
without overshoot
RCP3-PD
Peak and decline
100
0
Historic (proxies & tide gauges)
1000
1500
2000
2300
Year
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Adapted from Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.
Harmful Algal Blooms
• Neurotoxic
• Paralytic
• Amnesic
• Diarrhetic
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Coastal Ocean & Infectious Disease
•
•
•
•
Warmer temperatures
Enriched waters
Altered ecosystems
Open to invasions
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Increase in Atmospheric CO2
Starting point
280 ppm
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Ocean Acidification
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Climate Change Education
K-12 Education (integrated with
Next-Generation Science
Standards, and Environmental
Literacy Requirements)
Maryland and Delaware
Climate Change Education,
Assessment and Research
Higher Education (sustainability
literacy, teacher preparation,
pipeline)
Informal Education (museums,
aquaria, outdoor centers, media)
www.madeclear.org/
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Questions or Comments?
[email protected]
www.umces.edu/people/president