Transcript Climate drivers

Most of the economic impacts in
WA are caused by…
1. Changes in the
water cycle.
2. Heat waves.
3. Carbon
fertilization of the
atmosphere.
4. Invasive species
and other pests.
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What was the “errata for the
HB3103 Interim Report” about?
1. Feet versus cm.
2. Degrees C versus
degrees F.
3. 50 years versus
100 years.
4. Tons versus
metric tons
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Preliminary estimates of
economic impacts of climate
change in Washington State
Produced by Climate Leadership
Initiative for the WA Departments of
Ecology and CTED, Dec. 2006
British
Columbia
Washington
State
Washington State
Whatcom
Seattle
Yakima
Walla Walla
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
Forest
resources
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
2020s
400000
2040s
300000
200000
100000
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
0
Degrees (F)
Aug
Apr
Apr
Jul
Mar
Mar
Jun
Feb
Feb
May
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Jan
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
500000
Dec
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Demand -10
Temp
-12
-14
Historic
Nov
3. Earlier snowmelt.
600000
Oct
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
Sep
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
Demand (MW-Months)
Climate drivers
Cubic Feet per Second
Electricity
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-1400
Municipal
water supply
Monthly rainfall, Seattle (% of annual average)
200%
175%
150%
125%
Climate drivers
100%
75%
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
50%
25%
0%
Jan
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Monthly water use, Seattle (% of annual average)
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
25%
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Agriculture
Flow of Yakima River
Yakima Basin
700
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
Flow (Tho usand ac-ft)
600
Historic
500
+3.6ЎF
400
300
200
100
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Agriculture
Dairy
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
Agriculture
Dairy
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
Agriculture
Wine
Climate drivers
1. Increased levels
of CO2.
2. Temperatures up
2°F by 2020s
and 3°F by
2040s.
3. Earlier snowmelt.
4. No significant
change in amount
of precipitation.
5. Sea level rise by
2100 of ≈3 inches
to 3+ feet.
Source: Dr. Gregory V Jones, Southern Oregon Univ.
Source: Greg Jones, Southern Oregon Univ.
Other potential impacts
• Flooding: higher risk in some areas, lower
risk in others.
• Public health: West Nile Virus, asthma,
heat-related deaths, etc.
• Snow sports: Shorter, rainier seasons.
• Salmon and fisheries: Warmer water
threatens salmon; other effects unknown.
• Shorelines: May need to redesign or
rebuild levees, seawalls, etc.
• Cumulative impacts and linkages
• Risk of catastrophic climate change
Economic impacts this century will
likely be visible but manageable
• Costs related to forest fires may double by
2040s ($10s to $100s of millions).
• Hydropower impacts probably < 5% of revenues
(≈$150 million) unless precipitation changes.
• By mid-century, drought costs in Yakima up from
$13 million to $79 million, milk production down
1-3% ($10s of millions out of ≈ $1 billion sector).
• Municipal water systems: Seattle may hit
capacity constraint in 2050, not 2060.
• WA GDP > $250 billion; state budget ≈ $20 b.
Economic impacts this century will
likely be visible but manageable
• Key words: this century. Economic
impacts will almost certainly increase in
future centuries with more warming.
• Key word: Likely. In other words, based on
what scientists and economists know for
sure (or are very confident in), impacts this
century will be visible but manageable.
• But there are uncertainties (e.g., nonlinear
changes) that could make economic
impacts this century much, much worse.
Ecosystem thresholds: the case
of the Mountain Pine Beetle
• a massive outbreak of the
mountain pine beetle in BC
has killed 100 billion board
feet (approx. 9 years of
harvest)
• low temperatures (< 10°F) limit beetle activity
– a recent lack of extreme
cold, killing temperatures
has allowed the beetle to
thrive in epidemic numbers
beetle killed pines in BC
Photos from http://www.for.gov.bc.cal
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hre/bcmpb/
Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding
rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.”
1 ft ≈ 300 mm
Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding
rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.”
• IPCC 2007: “Larger values cannot be
excluded, but understanding of these
effects is too limited to assess their
likelihood or provide a best estimate or an
upper bound for sea level rise.”
• Hansen 2007 (not IPCC!): “As a physicist,
I find it almost inconceivable that [business
as usual] climate change would not yield a
sea level change of the order of meters on
the century timescale.”
Blue: 2 ft (≈0.6m)
Purple: 20 ft (≈6m)
Red: 40 ft (≈12m)
Sea level rise (IPCC 2007), “excluding
rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.”
1 ft ≈ 300 mm
Sea level rise by 2100 (global plus local
ocean dynamics and local tectonic forces)
Updated “best guess” from Mote et al. 2008 (“Sea Level
Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State”)
Global
Puget
Sound
Olympic
peninsula
Very low
18cm
16cm
-24cm
Medium
34cm
34cm
4cm
Very high
93cm
128cm
88cm
WA. Dept of Ecology
World CO2: from 21,000MMT
in 1990 to 44,000MMT in 2030
18000
16000
14000
U.S.
12000
10000
8000
6000
EU, Canada,
Japan, etc
China
4000
2000
0
India, Brazil,
etc
1990
2010
2030
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Washington CO2 (+ other GHG):
from 78MMT in 1990 to ???
160
140
Business as
Usual
120
100
With passed
legislation
80
60
Targets (1990
by 2020, half
by 2050)
40
20
0
1990
2020
2050
Source: Based on Dept. of Community, Trade and Economic Development
Washington CO2 (+ other GHG):
≈88MMT in 2004
What was the #1 recommendation
from the Climate Action Team?
1. Fuel economy
standards.
2. Ban coal.
3. Market-based
instruments.
4. Home energy
efficiency.
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Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… income tax
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
-$8
-$10
-$12
-$14
Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… tax on natural gas
$10
$8
Income
quintile
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… tax on electricity
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… tax on fuel oils
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
-$8
Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
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Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… tax on gasoline
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… tax on jet fuel
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
-$8
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-$12
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Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
3rd
4th
Highest
Net benefits of replacing $100 in
sales tax with… income tax
$6
$4
$2
$0
-$2
-$4
-$6
-$8
-$10
-$12
-$14
Income
quintile
Lowest
2nd
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