Transcript Dr.Geoff Syme, CSIRO

Socio-political aspects of adapting to
Climate Change
Geoff Syme
Research Director - Society, Economy & Policy
CSIRO Land and Water
August 16, 2005
www.csiro.au
Methodology
Workshops
 Three workshops were held in Wagga Wagga at the end of May 2005.
 Workshops were held for different stakeholder groups: farmers (N=17),
catchment managers (N=14), and local government officers (N=7).
Climate Change Scenario
 Participants were required to complete a set of questions pertaining to a
climate change scenario.
 Participants reviewed a list of potential actions they could undertake to
address climate change. The predicted impact of each action on the
catchment water security was expressed as a number ranging between -3
(major negative effects on catchment water security) to +3 (major positive
effects on catchment water security)
 Participants rated the perceived effect of each action on a list of impact
factors developed in an earlier stage of the research.
Slide Presentation Title
Possible Future Climate Scenario
The climate change scenario was described as follows.
“You might expect average temperatures in the Murrumbidgee catchment
to increase by one and a half degrees Celsius. The climate change
would also affect water resources within the Murrumbidgee catchment in
the following way:
 Temperature up by about 1.5°C
 Rainfall down by 12%
 Evaporation up by 10%
 Water stored in catchment dams down 40% – 50%
 Long term average initial allocation down to 44%
 Long term average final allocation down
to 70%.”
Slide Presentation Title
Rating the Effect of Actions on Impact Factors
Catchment water security relates to the availability of water to meet
catchment demands given the effects of the changed climate (eg.
increased temperature & evaporation)
-3
-2
-1
0
enough
extreme
not enough water
water
to cope
Slide Presentation Title
1
2
3
extreme
more than enough water
Action List and Impact Factors at the Farm Scale
Action List
Impact Factors
 No action
 Farm profit
 Change enterprise mix
 Ability to manage water
within or across seasons
 Buy more water
 Use water more efficiently
 Harvest and store more water
 Plant high value crops
 Cut back your enterprise
 Buy more land
 Employ minimum tillage
Slide Presentation Title
 Invest in catchment
management activities
 The natural environment
 The farming community
 The regional community
 The farmer and his/her
family
Action List and Impact Factors at the Catchment
Scale
Action List
Impact Factors
 No action
 Long term catchment planning
 Employ cloud seeding
 Economic sustainability of the
catchment
 Develop and institute stricter
controls for licensing and
monitoring water use
 Replace channels with pipes
 Create en-route water
storages
 Conduct R&D for adaptive
crop stock and breeds
 Increase government
coordination
 Establish a market-based
catchment water bank
 Ban inter-valley transfer
Slide Presentation Title
 The natural environment
 Reaching catchment plan targets
 Community involvement and
investment in catchment
management activities
 Resilience of the community
 Population profile
Data Analysis: Level of Perceived Importance of
Impacts
How important were the impact factors perceived to be at each
of the scales (Farm, Catchment, Local Government)?
Participants rated the importance of each impact factor…
1
extremely
important
2
3
4
5
very
important
important
hardly
important
not at all
important
… and ranked each impact factor from the most important (=1) factor to the
least important (=7) factor.
Perceived Importance = Rated Importance x Ranked Importance
Slide Presentation Title
Relative Importance of Impact Factors at the Farm
Scale
Impact Factors (Farm Scale) N=17
Mean
Importance
1. You and your family
2.7
2. Your farm profit
3.7
3. Your ability to manage available water within or across
seasons
8.2
4. The farming community
15.1
5. The natural environment
15.6
6. The regional community
16.4
7. Your investment in catchment management activities
17.2
NOTE: Lower numbers equate to higher mean importance
Slide Presentation Title
Relative Importance of Impact Factors at the
Catchment Scale
Impact Factors (Catchment Scale) N=14
Mean
Importance
1. The natural environment
4.1
2. Economic sustainability of the catchment
5.4
3. Long-term catchment planning
7.1
4. Community resilience
8.4
5. Community involvement and investment in catchment
management activities
10.5
6. Reaching catchment plan targets
16.3
7. Population profile
22.6
NOTE: Lower numbers equate to higher mean importance
Slide Presentation Title
Data Analysis: Decision Frameworks at Each Scale
Which actions were preferred most/least at each scale?
 No Action was the least preferred option at all three scales.
 There were a number of actions that were viewed positively in terms of their
perceived effects on the most important impact factors at each scale. These
were:
Farm Scale –
Use water more efficiently; Employ minimum tillage; Harvest and
water; Plant high value crops
store more
Catchment Scale –
Conduct R&D for adaptive crop stock and breeds; Establish a market-based
catchment waterbank; Create en-route water storages.
Slide Presentation Title
Negative Decision Framework for NO ACTION at the
Farm Scale
Slide Presentation Title
Positive Decision Framework for USE WATER
MORE EFFICIENTLY at the Farm Scale
Slide Presentation Title
Negative Decision Framework for NO ACTION at the
Catchment Scale
Slide Presentation Title
Positive Decision Framework for CONDUCT R&D at
the Catchment Scale
Slide Presentation Title
How did people respond
•
Not probabilities
•
Disinterested in scientists views
•
Benchmark from own aspirations
•
In the long term hope that climate
variability response suffice
Slide Presentation Title
Stoll-Kleemann
et al (2001)
•
Denial by “exaggerating costs of
shifting away from comfortable
lifestyles”
•
Blame on inaction of others –
including governments
•
Uncertain and far away
Slide Presentation Title
Staat et al (1994)
Mean hope as measured by expected affective balance
(EBS) and standard deviations for four time frames.
Slide Presentation Title
Staats et al (1994)
Means and standard deviations for the scales of the Hope
Index for four time frames.
Slide Presentation Title
Lindberg et al (1974)
Emotional involvement in future events as a
function of temporal distance.
Slide Presentation Title
Lindberg et al (1974)
Emotional involvement in future events as a function of
temporal distance.
Slide Presentation Title
Geissler (2002)
“Social systems, communities, societies,
families, businesses and institutions are
most prone to crises and imbalances when
they only have very limited opportunities to
reorganise themselves because of a lack of
heterogeneity in temporal structures and
processes.”
Slide Presentation Title
Geissler (2002)
“There is no rational economic basis for our
obsession with speed.”
Slide Presentation Title
Hukkinen (1999)
Feedback between formal environmental institutions and
the mental models of experts.
Slide Presentation Title
Required basic ingredients of learning
•
Information
•
Motivation
•
Capacity to implement (Lambin, 2005)
Slide Presentation Title
But also reinforcement to complete learning
over
Time
and
Issues
Slide Presentation Title
How we can coordinate adaptive learning is
the major socio-political issue facing
adaptation to climate change
Slide Presentation Title
Land and Water
Dr Geoff Syme
Research Director – Society, Economy and Policy
Phone
+61 8 9333 6278
Email
[email protected]
Web
www.csiro.au/group
Thank You
Contact CSIRO
Phone
1300 363 400
+61 3 9545 2176
Email
[email protected]
Web
www.csiro.au
www.csiro.au