Transcript It’s time to accept that climate change is unstoppable

Adapting to climate change
in eastern New Zealand
Today’s programme
Global change
Source: www.igbp.kva.se
The carbon cycle
Source: www.igbp.kva.se
The greenhouse
effect
Past and recent climate
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Present climate variability
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Global climate change
• Average global temperatures
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Source: www.ipcc.ch
are projected to increase by
between 1.4 and 5.8°C by
2100. The amount of increase
will strongly depend on steps
that are taken globally to
reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
There is more uncertainty
with changes in rainfall.
Projected changes in average
temperature and precipitation
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Some key points
• We are experiencing unprecedented global
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changes such as population growth,
deforestation, loss of genetic diversity and
increases in greenhouse gases.
The consequence of increased greenhouse
gases is change in the natural greenhouse
effect leading to climate change.
There is clear evidence that climate change is
happening.
Future climate will result from a combination
of an underlying warming trend and on-going
natural variations.
While some trends (e.g. higher average
temperatures) are emerging, there is a lot of
uncertainty with other factors (e.g. changes in
rainfall).
Projected changes
in eastern New Zealand
• It is important to be aware that
prediction of regional changes in
climate is much less certain than
predictions of broader scale changes.
Bay of Plenty
Hawke’s Bay
Nelson and Marlborough
Canterbury
Projected impacts
in eastern New Zealand
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There could be more extremes such as
prolonged dry periods and intense
rainfall events, leading to more
droughts and floods.
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Security of water supply will be the
biggest issue in eastern regions.
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Biosecurity challenges will increase in
all areas, with southward spread of
new and existing plant and animal
pests.
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Changes in biodiversity will occur.
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Changes in pasture composition will
occur, with southward spread of subtropical grass species.
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It’s not all bad news. There will be
increased opportunities to diversify
into new crops. Water will be the key.
Adapting to climate change will
be one of the world’s major
challenges of the 21st century
• ‘Stop debating whether global
warming is happening. The
priority now is to start
preparing for its
consequences, be they
droughts and heatwaves or
floods and harsh winters.
That is the message from
meteorologists, who say
adapting to climate change
will be one of the world’s
major challenges of the 21st
century.’
Source: New Scientist, 13 September 2003
What is adaptation?
• Adaptation is what people and
communities can be doing through
positive actions and interactions to
address the likely effects of climate
change.
Why adaptation, and how?
• Human’s have adapted to change for
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millenia. Local catastrophes have
occurred.
Change in the future is inevitable. The
challenge is that the rate of change is
unprecedented.
The issues are no longer local.
Doing nothing is not an option. We need
to be smart and proactive.
We can be proactive in developing greater
resilience.
Why farmers?
• Climate change will bring
challenges and opportunities
for everyone.
• Farmers are the managers of a
significant portion of our land
and water resources.
• Farmers are adaptors.
• Their adaptive capacity needs
to be supported for the benefit
of all.
Group work
• Adaptation at the micro (farm) scale
– Consider present and future impacts
(mapping exercise)
– Develop the micro adaptation picture
(change the farm picture)
What you can do
(and what
proactive farmers are already doing)
• ‘Success comes from making a
decision to act and getting the timing
right.’
• Focus on a flexible, balanced,
approach that addresses the
economy, ecology and social wellbeing of the farm.
What proactive farmers are
doing
Trees
Diversification
Water
Soil
Pasture
FARM
RESILIENCE
Cropping
Stock
Infrastructure
Energy
Waste
Information and support
• Sustainable Farming Fund, www.maf.govt/sff
• Sustainable Management Fund, www.smf.govt.nz
• Regional Council land management information and support
– Environment Bay of Plenty, www.envbop.govt.nz, click on Land
– Hawke’s Bay Regional Council, www.hbrc.govt.nz, click on
Land
– Environment Canterbury,
www.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Land
– For other Regional Councils go to the Local Government
website to find relevant website and contact details:
www.localgovt.co.nz
• Farm Forestry Association, www.nzffa.org.nz
• New Zealand Landcare Trust, www.landcare.org.nz
• Ballance Farm Environment Awards, www.ballance.co.nz/fea.html
Group work – Adaptation at
the meso (catchment or
regional) scale
• Develop a realistic resilience picture that
clearly addresses future risks associated
with climate change.
• Develop a positive social interaction in
your group.
• Effectively communicate your vision and
how it can be achieved.
Some key challenges
• Crisis provides a learning opportunity.
• Innovation requires a change of
thinking.
• Everyone has a point of view.
What communities can do
• Development of region-wide
resilience requires partnerships
between communities, industry
groups and statutory organisations.
• Everyone needs to be working
together.
What communities can do
Education
Water
Urban/rural development
Biosecurity
REGIONAL
RESILIENCE
Infrastructure
Biodiversity
Energy
Waste
Some key ingredients for a
resilient meso
• Focus on ‘innovators’ – communicate their stories
to others.
• Identify wider issues and provide the opportunity
for constructive social interactions to explore
these.
• A whole catchment approach – science and society
working together.
• Shift the timeframe to the next 50 to 100 years.
Some good examples
• The Coast Care BOP Programme, www.envbop.govt.nz (look under
Coast) or phone 0800 368 267.
• The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council Land Management Group,
www.hbrc.govt.nz (look under Land) or phone 0800-108-838.
• The Environment Canterbury Living Streams Programme,
www.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Land or phone 800 324
636.
• Enviroschools, www.enviroschools.org.nz or phone 07 839 5605.
The vision of Enviroschools is ‘a generation of innovative and
motivated young people, who instinctively think and act
sustainably’.
• Integrated Catchment Management Project,
www.landcare.org.nz/integrated_catchment_management/index.
htm or phone 0508 526 322.
Every situation is different, we
need to work with that diversity
Lake Rerewhakaaitu,
Bay of Plenty
Ahuriri Catchment,
Hawke’s Bay
Ashburton District,
Canterbury
‘Imagination is more important than knowledge’ Albert Einstein
‘An oak tree lives in a four-hundred-year timeframe. Human time-frames are always too
short. So we get it wrong, and we don’t really
understand the natural processes half the
time.’
‘So what’s your rule for the Forest?’
‘Look for a balance. But know that nature will
find a better one.’
From ‘The Forest’, by Edward Rutherfurd