Transcript P. Gomboluudev

Climate Change Scenarios Development
P. GOMBOLUUDEV and P.BATIMA
Why we are studying climate change ?
 Climate condition and its change are one of the limiting factors for
economic development of the country
 Last 40 years the ecosystem of Mongolia is clearly changed as
result of combination of climate change and human activity
 Mongolian ecosystem is very vulnerable and sensitive to the
climate change. Because of severe continental climate
 The study result gives background understand of the level of
potential impacts of climate change on environment and economic
sectors
 Identify the response measures in human life to adapt under
changes in climate system
Observed Global Climate Change
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CO2 concentration is increased 280 ppm for
period 1750 to 368 ppm in 2000, 31%
Global mean surface is increased by 0.6 0C,
land areas warmed more than oceans
Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is
increased over the 20th century greater than
during any other century in last 1000 years
Hot days/Heat index is increased
Frequency and severity of drought is
increased by 5-10%over 20th century Northern
Hemisphere
Heavy precipitation events is increased at mid
and high northern latitude
Global mean see level is increased by 20 sm
since 1900
Snow cover is decreased by 10% since 1960
Growing season is lengthened by 1 to 4 days
per decade during 40 years
Recent Trends of Global Average Surface Temperature
A combination of surface air temperature over land and sea-surface temperature over the
ocean. Individual bars show annual values as deviations from 1961-1990 average.
Present Climate Feature in Mongolia
• Climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with sharply defined seasons, high annual and diurnal
temperature fluctuations, low rainfall and relatively long duration of sunshine in a year.
• Average annual temperatures are around 8.5oC in the Gobi and -7.8oC in the high mountainous
areas.
• The extreme minimum temperature is -31.1oC to -52.9oC in January and the extreme maximum
temperature is +28.5oC to +42.2oC in July.
• Annual mean precipitation is 300-400 mm in the mountain regions, and 150-250 mm in the steppe,
100-150 mm in the steppe-desert and 50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert areas. About 85-90 per cent of
total precipitation falls in summer
• Mongolia has on an average 3,000 hours of sunshine annually
Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia
During the last 60 years
• Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C this increase was greater in the
winter (3.610C), and smaller in the spring (1.4-1.50C)
• Winter warming is more in the high mountain regions, and less in the steppe and Gobi
and desert.
• There is no significant changes in annual precipitation amount.
Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years
55
0.0 to 0.5
0.5 to 1.0
1.0 to 1.5
1.5 to 2.0
2.0 to 2.5
50
1.55
1.24
1.25
2.12
1.60
1.51
2.04
1.80
1.13
1.15
1.42
1.73
1.42
1.53 0.93
1.02
0.86
1.42
1.03
0.65
1.32
1.00
1.40
1.66 0.34 1.15
0.18
1.23
1.13
1.01
1.08
1.07
0.94
1.25
1.79
45
1.16
1.06
1.39
1.66
0.72
1.48
1.05
1.55
0.91
40
90
95
100
105
110
115
1.06
Extreme weather index and its change
Growing Degree Days>5 degC, 169.1 degC
Mean Duirnal range, -0.84 degC
1
300
0.5
250
0
-0.5
Erdenesant
Maanit
Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa
Hutag
Sukhbaatar
200
150
-1
-1.5
100
-2
50
-2.5
0
-3
Erdenesant
Number of Frost Days Tmin<0 degC, -8.8 days
Maanit
Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa
Hutag
Sukhbaatar
-8
6
Sukhbaatar
4
-14
2
-16
0
-18
Hutag
10
8
-12
Sukhbaatar
12
-6
-10
Hutag
14
0
-4
Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa
Growing Season Length, 8.4 days
2
-2 Erdenesant
Maanit
Erdenesant
Maanit
Undurkhaan ChoibalsanBaruunkharaa
Winter is getting snowy and summer is getting dry
Mean Climate Precipitation, mm/day
0.10
0.00
DJF
-0.10
-0.20
MAM
JJA
SON
ANN
Future Climate Change Scenarios in Mongolia
Method of Climate Change Study and Its Impact Study
Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models
• winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change
intensity is high than winter
• It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry
Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990
January
July
How accurate is the climate model?
Model
1.HadCM3
2. CGCM3
3. CSIRO
Temperature
Observed
Simulation
BIAS
St. deviation
Variation
Annual mean
0.66
-0.44
1.13
1.32
1.75
Summer
17.02
16.22
0.79
1.46
2.14
Winter
-17.55
-18.42
0.92
3.21
10.03
Annual mean
0.66
-7.06
7.63
4.78
22.88
Summer
17.02
12.16
4.75
3.39
11.55
Winter
-17.55
-27.06
9.44
6.76
45.4
Annual mean
0.66
-0.86
1.54
3.25
10.54
Summer
17.02
19.18
-2.16
3.33
11.06
Winter
-17.55
-18.02
0.53
5.27
27.27
Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios
by HadCM3 Climate Model
Time slice
Winter
Summer
Annual
Temperature, Celsius
2020
0.85
1.99
1.37
2050
2.37
3.53
2.81
2080
3.89
6.35
4.88
Precipitation, mm
2020
5.0
-5.2
9.1
2050
8.2
15.1
44.3
2080
14.2
13.6
55.4
Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change
ª ⺠ë
2010-2039
Çóí
2010-2039
2040-2069
2040-2069
2070-2099
2070-2099
Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change
ª ⺠ë
2010-2039
Çóí
2010-2039
2040-2069
2040-2069
2070-2099
2070-2099
Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2
1961-1990
2050
2020
2080
Thank you for your attention