Transcript GW-UUUS-2010-08

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Anthropogenic Global Warming: You and Your Progeny
Gary Przyborski
2010-08-29
Temp Trends base (1951-1980) to (1980-2009), http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Global Warming: Climate, Weather & the such
Climate versus Weather:
– Weather varies locally, globally,
daily, seasonally, yearly
– Climate is NOT linear! It's chaotic
with wind and water currents!
Scientist use varied sources: satellites,
temperature stations at sea and on land,
tree rings, ice cores, pond sediment with
varying accuracies.
Earth has been hot and cold before:
Earth has been hot before (ice free poles)
and frozen over. Yet many indicators point
to current warming trends as man-made.
Upper hemisphere warms twice as fast:
Climate models have predicted this.This is
due to larger oceans that absorb heat
faster, the ocean conveyor belt system,
ozone hole, etc..
Visualize Global Warming
Several Quicktime movies are available to help visualize the changes.
Be patient as these files are large and require good bandwidth.
The key point is that warming is not uniform throughout the globe, depending on many
variables.
- http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/
- under this page for example, click on- http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/a5_1881_2003_6fps.mov
- http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=422&MediaTypeID=2
Atmosphere is chaotic...
Ref: http://weather.unisys.com/nam/loop/nam_850_loop.html
Great Ocean Conveyor Belt (Heat Pump)
Transports warm tropical heat to the northern latitudes, moderating winter temps. Melt
ice & increased northern rainfall can slow, or with a large release, halt this flow.
Diagram: IPCC, Ref: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=20727
Modern Day Canaries...
Glaciers:
- Glaciers are loosing mass everywhere.
- Many people rely on them for runoff water.
- By 2030, no glaciers in Glacier National Park.
- Latest research shows that sea level rise
could be 1m by 2100, versus 18-58mm.
Greenland
- Rate of Ice volume change (04/02-06/07):
All Greenland: UPDATED 2010-08:
– 350 km3/yr (-84 mil3/yr)
– was 58 mil3/yr (2007)
- Aug 3, 2010: Part of the Petermann Glacier
broke off, ~100 square miles area.
- If all of Greenland melted, sea level would
rise 5m (18ft).
Ref: http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/aug/greenland080610.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/sea-level-rises-climate-change-copenhagen
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5inGfVX69zbp-Gs4_y0FEdtLKMLeA
Antarctica: Another Tipping Point?
Antarctica melting is largely due to warming ocean water. Since 2002, Antarctica has
lost lost more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year. 2010
ref: http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=242
Global Warming: CO2 Lags Temperature
Carbon dioxide over geological time has not been a forcer of climate change,
but has affected Earth's temperature.
Ref: http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
Global Warming: 400,000 years of temperature and CO2
EARTH- JUST RIGHT!
VENUS
EARTH
Ref: http://www.nasa.gov/worldbook/venus_worldbook.html
465 C (870 F)
14 C (57F)
Image:Copyright NASA
Sun's Variance is Not Causing Recent Warming
Orbital: Milankovitch Cycles...
– - orbital eccentricity, 100,000 yr cycle, 0.005 to 0.058
– - axial tilt (obliquity). 41,000 yr cycle, varies 22.1º to 24.5º (23.44º)
– - axial precession. 26,000 yr cycle
– - ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
Sun Irradiance:
- Getting brighter over a long period of time: 25-30% compared to billions yrs ago
- Variation about 0.07%/11yr period, calculated to change temp 0.2K
- Other variations- little ice age?
Ref: http://courses.washington.edu/pcc587/notes/587_3.pdf
CO2 Forensics: Human Civilization
Dr. Charles David Keeling links fossil fuel to CO2 rise.
CO2 has not exceeded 290 ppm in last 650,000 years. Max levels 55 million years ago: 1000
Ref: 02/10: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Anthropogenic Global Warming:
Predicted in 1975 (35 years ago) by Broecker
35th Birthday of GW: Broecker assumed a 3% growth of fossil fuel emissions, predicting
1.67 trillion tons by June 2010; the actual amount is thought to be about 1.3 trillion tons.
This is amazing since Broecker didn't have the data in the most recent data. By the late
1980s this trend was noticed and became common in 1980s.
Ref: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/07/happy-35th-birthday-global-warming/
Greenhouse Gas: Concentration & Lifetimes are Important
Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas but because of its short lifetime
in the atmosphere, it is not the driving force, see ref 1 for more detail. There are
other less significant gases that have been left off this table, see ref 2.
1. More about CO2: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
2. Table Source: CDIAC 12/09: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html
Global Warming is an Energy Imbalance
The energy flux of the sun as defined as black body radiation is...
Eflux (W/m2) = ε x σ x T4 (Ke)
= 1 x 5.67 x 10-8 (W/m2/K4) x 57804 (K4)
= 63.28 x 106 (W/m2) (~6 MW/ft2)
– Sun's surface area is a sphere, 4πRs2
– Rs = 6.955 x 108 (m) (432,164 miles, x 109 of earth)
– Rse = 1.496 x 1011 (m)
– Using the inverse law of the sun's sphere & Earth's orbit...
– 4 π Rs2 / 4 π Rse2 = 2.164 x 10-5
– Thus, the maximum flux received on the earth (disk) is...
– EFfall = 63.28 x 106 x 2.164 x 10-5 = 1370 W/m2
– EFfallavg = 1370 / 4 = 342 W/m2 insolation disk:sphere...
– Next, factor inEarth's albedo 30%, absorbs 70% of the energy
– EFeabs = EFfallavg x (1 – 0.3): EFeabs = 240 W/m2
– Using above equation T = (240/ 0.95 / 5.67 x 10-8)1/4
– T = 255K (-18ºC, 0ºF ) if Earth was a black body but it's
actually 33ºC higher, 288K (15ºC, 59ºF) from GGs.
– Due to man-made affects, more of the sun's energy is
trapped in the atmosphere instead of back into space.
– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan–Boltzmann_law
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/43162323/Blackbody-radiation-and-the-greenhouse-effect
Global Warming: Greenhouse Gas Problem
Our sun's light spectrum is shown in red, while the earth's is shown in
blue. Very little of the sun's energy (<5%) is in the infrared, absorbed by
greenhouse gases near the earth's surface.
Ref: 10/06/09 http://courses.washington.edu/pcc587/notes/587_3.pdf
Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE): Dark Objects Radiate More Heat
UHIE: Locally: Orlando McCulloch Rd & Alafaya
Trail
Ref: Google Maps...
The War on Global Warming Science
Misinformation deludes the public as to the facts and threats serving short term
vested interests (coal, oil, gas, political organizations, news corporations).
Business
- Put lipstick on a pig: “clean coal”, “America's new natural gas” with an attractive woman.
- Stress environmental issues of no consequence: not so many oil platforms...
- Cost is too much. Business as usual. Compared to what? A hostile future environment?
- Hold onto a broken system. Trillions were committed to subsidize failed banks.
Direct attacks
- Repeat disparaging catch phrases: alarmists, scam, garbage, tree huggers.
- False claims that scientists weren't factoring in heat island effect, solar variation, etc.
- Create straw man arguments (that aren't real) and then dissect them.
– If temperature leads CO2, this proves that CO2 doesn't cause warming. WRONG
- Over blow the significance of unknowns, as if everything was in question.
News
- News is a business paid for by business with a bias.
- Controversy and Manufactured Controversy Sells: Fox News, NY Times, Guardian, etc.
- How many ads are paid for by scientists? How about Koch Brothers and ExxonMobil?
IPCC Errors: Facts and Spin
- IPCC is a volunteer organization with 10 full-time staff members. Reports come out every
6-7 yrs, taking about 3 yrs to write.
Three working groups.
- WG1 deals with the physical climate science basis, as assessed by the climatologists.
- WG2 deals with impacts of climate change on society and ecosystems, as assessed by
social scientists, ecologists, etc.
- WG3 deals with mitigation options for limiting global warming, as assessed by energy
experts, economists, etc.
IPCC 2007 Report Errors
#1: Himalayan glaciers: In a regional chapter on Asia in Vol 2, written by authors from the
region, it wrongly stated that 80% of Himalayan glacier area would very likely be gone by
2035. This is not the proper IPCC projection of future glacier decline, which is found in
Volume 1 (Ch4) of the report whose one author, Georg Kaser, found the error.
#2: Sea level in the Netherlands: WG2 report states that “The Netherlands is an example
of a country highly susceptible to both sea-level rise and river flooding because 55% of its
territory is below sea level,” provided by a Dutch government agency, the Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, that has published a correction- the sentence should
have read “55 per cent of the Netherlands is at risk of flooding; 26 per cent of the country
is below sea level, and 29 per cent is susceptible to river flooding”.
Ref: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/ipcc-errors-facts-and-spin/
Follow the Money: Vested Interests Attack Climate Science
• Fossil fuel companies support disinformation to maintain market share.
• A Carbon Tax would greatly impact their future profits.
• Koch Industries: Oil-Gas: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all
• Out of Balance, ExxonMobil's Impact on Climate Change, IPCC 2007 Errors (2). See
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/ipcc-errors-facts-and-spin/#more2832
- “Should you believe anything John Christy and Roy Spenser Say?” Excellent little piece
about their mistakes and viewshttp://climateprogress.org/2008/05/22/should-you-believe-anything-john-christy-or-roy-spencer-say/
Example Contrarian “Science” Web Sites:
http://www.icecap.us/, Competitive Enterprise Institute, American Thinker, etc.
Repeats misstatements & known items but misinterprets. “There
has been no global warming since 1995! Warming periods have happened before but NOT due to man-made changes.” “The climate consensus promoted by Big
Business, Big Government, Big Media and Big Academia has come unstuck.” 2/16/10
Real Science...
-Real Climate: http://www.realclimate.org/
-Skeptical Science: Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
- Science of Doom: Good site for those willing to learn: http://scienceofdoom.com/
-Climate Denial with Peter Sinclair: Crock of the Week (videos):
http://greenfyre.wordpress.com/denier-vs-skeptic/denier-myths-debunked/climate-denial-crock-of-the-week/
Global warming challenges
Personal
- Humans adapt. Even the abnormal can seem normal...
- Lack of critical thinking. Risk: Nuclear-Coal, Driving-Airplane, Terrorist-Tobacco
- We're not good at judging big things.
- We like to thing we are good people. If we admit responsibility, what are we going to do?
- It costs to do the right thing. Why should we when others don't?
- We view the world through colored glasses. Religious, conservative-liberal, love-hates.
Systemic
- Culture: In America little importance is given to total societal benefit versus personal &
corporate freedom.
- Culture: Polarized. We don't trust the other guy...
- Government and business lie: Iraq War, Tar Sands, Goldman Sachs, tobacco, oil, Enron
- Mainstream news ignores greater understanding for a moving foreground with no context.
- Special interests control the conversation. See Chomsky's 'Manufacturing Consent'.
- Judicial system is designed to protect the existing order. (freedom for elections)
- 'An Inconvenient Truth' Our system is destroying the planet but how does it change itself?
- Culture: Movies and books often give us the illusion that the good guy wins.
- Culture: Practicality of getting elected. Many Republicans can't get elected if they support
AGW. President Bill Clinton scrapped the fast breeder reactor for political reasons:
http://www.esquire.com/features/best-and-brightest-2009/nuclear-waste-disposal-1209.
- Science: Tends to be conservative. Relative truth progresses slowly as things are tested.
- Science doesn't make policy decisions, politicians do.
- We only have so much resources. Trillions committed to subsidize failed banks, prop up
housing prices, and maintain the status quo.
Inconvenient Truths...
Climate Models predict an increasing hostile world
Threats...
- Rising sea levels threaten coastal areas, a rise of 1m, displaces 10% of population
- Rising population levels stress the system for more food supplies.
- Rising industrialization throughout the world: China, India, Brazil...
- Insect population increases, with higher temperatures
- Agricultural yields generally reduced by climate change.
Why Don't We Act?
- Business as usual is what got us into this mess.
- Corrupt political system allows vested interests to write legislation.
- Political polarization.
- Long term problems take a back seat to short term goals (profits, employment).
- Anti-science culture. Only 39% of Americans believe in evolution which
correlates well to 43% who believe in anthropogenic climate change. Source: PEW
Poll 1/25/09, http://people-press.org/report/584/policy-priorities-2010
How Can We Act?
- Act individually to make a difference.
- Encourage your government(s) to act to raise efficiency standards.
- Support a carbon tax to send a clear message to the marketplace. Although many
individuals see a carbon trading scheme as an indirect tax and yet another financial
bubble, a fair carbon tax would spur on real change, see http://www.carbontax.org/.
Tipping PointsIt's been so little... What positive feedback threats?
+ Permafrost thaws, releases +8000 gigatons CO2
+ Oceans saturate with CO2
+ Glaciers melt, replacing reflective ice with water
The Earth's temperature has risen in the last 100
years, about 0.73 C, with sea level rising 15 - 20 cm
(6-8”) (15 – 20cm)
What Can You Do?
Cut your energy use.
- Drive less. Carpool. Use mass transit.
- Increase insulation in your home.
- Get a white roof.
- Learn more about AGW and talk with someone to
learn more, instead of exchanging insults.
- Write your congressman and president about a tax
on fossil fuel combustion & to quit burning coal.
- Support new technologies.
Brunt of the Costs Will Be Paid by
Future Generations...
Image shows methane
bubbling up from permafrost
THE
END