Transcript Climate Change Caused by Humans?

CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES
The Arguments
Eric Jackson
[email protected]
Tactics
Misinformation disputed by all major scientific bodies
Quotes out of context
Misuse of statistics
Assertions that environmentalism = socialism
Assertions that environmentalism = plot to overthrow
US government
Assertions that environmentalism = plot by United
Nations to take control of the world
Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change
are commonly along one or more of the
following lines:
1. There is no conclusive evidence that climate
change is happening;
Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change
are commonly along one or more of the
following lines:
2. The changes in measured temperatures are
part of the natural cycle;
Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change
are commonly along one or more of the
following lines:
3. Even if the changes are human induced, the
scale is not sufficiently large to make changes
beyond sensible "least cost" measures; and
Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change
are commonly along one or more of the
following lines:
4. The economic impact of making substantial
cuts in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale
suggested by the IPCC or other groups is too
large.
There are several reasons why
denial is appealing.
The implications of the science are frightening
Doubt is an easy product to sell. Climate denial tells us
what we all secretly want to hear
Science is portrayed as political orthodoxy rather than
objective knowledge
In November 2004, leading climate change skeptic
Richard Lindzen was quoted saying he'd be willing to
bet that the earth's climate will be cooler in 20 years
than it is today.
When British climate researcher James Annan
contacted him, however, Lindzen would only agree to
take the bet if Annan offered a 50-to-1 payout
So who are the climate change
skeptics?
Approximately 30 individuals have been the most
quoted leaders of the climate change denial
movement.
So who are the climate change
skeptics?
In the USA, there are two organizations that have
taken a leadership role in climate change denial.
Competitive Enterprise Institute
George C. Marshall Institute
Competitive Enterprise Institute
“CEI is a research and advocacy institute dedicated to
the principles of free enterprise and limited
government. We believe that individuals are best
helped not by government intervention, but by making
their own choices in a free marketplace."
The Competitive Enterprise Institute produced two 60second television spots focusing on the “alleged global
warming crisis” and the calls by some environmental
groups and politicians for reduced energy use. The
ads were aired in 14 U.S. cities from May 18 to May
28, 2006.
The ads say that polar ice is actually thickening and
that CO2 is a good thing.
ExxonMobil’s funding of CEI was $2,005,000 for the
period 1998-2005.
CEI’s other major efforts include support for the
tobacco industry, the pesticide industry, and the
pharmaceutical industry
George C. Marshall Institute
GMI’s mission is to “encourage the use of sound
science in making public policy about important issues
for which science and technology are major
considerations."
George C. Marshall Institute
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice
Age, according to a large and compelling body of
evidence from within the field of climate science.
George C. Marshall Institute
ExxonMobil’s funding of GMI was $715,000 for the
period 1998-2006.
Is Climate Change Human Caused?
Human Caused?
Wrong Question?
Creation Stewardship?
Climate Change
Caused by
Humans?
Wrong Question!
True or False?
RISK MANAGEMENT 101
Yes
ACTION
No
$$$$$$$$$$
False
NO BENEFITS
$$$$$$$$$$ CATASTROPHE
>20-50’ sea rise
True
>1 B displaced
>economic, societal, &
health systems collapse
Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa
Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000
years of temperature and greenhouse gas data
Atmospheric CO2 Projections
Text
Truth
Expertise
Most Reliable
Professional organizations
Statements that
contradict normal bias
Peer-reviewed science
“Science”
“Nature”
Proceedings from
Nat Acad Science
Universities
Petitions
Think tanks
Advocacy groups
Individual professional
Individual layperson
Least Reliable
Bias
Support for my beliefs
“Global warming is a manageable risk, not an
existential crisis, and we should get on with the job of
managing it. Conservatives should propose policies
that are appropriately optimistic, science-based, and
low-cost. This should be an attractive political program:
It is.....a reality that Americans usually respond well to
the conversion of political issues into technical
problems. After all, we’re very good at solving the
latter. New Atlantis, Summer 2008
Next in the Climate Change Series....
The Solutions
February 1 at 9 and 10:30 AM
February 5 at 7 PM
Eric Jackson
[email protected]