Transcript How well do global sectoral C budgets compare with regional

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
and global climate change
Pete Smith
Royal Society-Wolfson Professor of Soils & Global Change
Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences
School of Biological Sciences,
University of Aberdeen,
Scotland, UK.
E-mail: [email protected]
SDC Scotland & Scottish Government - Climate Change Seminar & Evening Reception,
Scottish Parliament, Wednesday 29th October 2008
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
What is the IPCC?
• IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Created by World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) &
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988
• Mandate: assess the science of climate change, impacts and
adaptation, mitigation options
• Publishes consensus reports (1990, 1996, 2001, 2007)
(Cambridge University Press)
• Advises Climate Change Convention
• Nobel Peace Prize 2007
Website: www.ipcc.ch
The three main working
groups of IPCC
• WGI – Climatology
• WGII – Impacts and Adaptation
• WGIII – Mitigation
• Plus:
– Special reports
– National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Programme
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
Humans are responsible for large increases in
atmospheric GHG concentrations in the
atmosphere
Current atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide and methane far exceed
pre-industrial values determined from
ice cores spanning the last 650,000
years. The increases in these
greenhouse gases since 1750 are due
primarily to emissions from fossil fuel
use, agriculture, and land-use changes.
IPCC, AR4, WGI (2007)
Increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations are leading to pronounced
global warming
Difference from 1961-1990 long term average
1850
1900
1950
2000
The 100-year linear trend (1906–2005) is 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]°C.
The linear rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years
(0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the
last 100 years showing that global warming is increasing.
IPCC, AR4, WGI (2007)
There are different regional trends in temperature increase but they
cannot be explained without human GHG emission increases
IPCC, AR4, WGI (2007)
Climate projections without mitigation
IPCC, AR4, WGI (2007)
Main findings of IPCC
on climate
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• Very high confidence that net effect of human activities since 1750
= warming
• Last 50 years likely to be highest temperature in at least last 1300
yrs
• Most of this warming is very likely due to increase in human
greenhouse gases
• Without emission reduction policies, global temperature could
increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C, or even higher in 2100 compared to 1990
• Sea level could increase by 18 to 59 cm, or more
• Frequency/intensity of several extreme phenomena due to
increase (ex: heat waves, droughts, floods, …)
IPCC, AR4, WGI (2007)
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
The Chacaltaya glacier and ski-lift, Bolivia
Skiing was no longer possible after 2004
IPCC, AR4, WGII (2007)
Other effects of regional
climate changes on
natural and human
environments are
emerging, although many
are difficult to discern
due to adaptation and
non-climatic drivers.
IPCC, AR4, WGII (2007)
IPCC, AR4, WGII (2007)
Main findings of IPCC on
impacts and adaptation
• Natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes,
particularly temperature increases.
• Some adaptation is occurring now, but on a limited basis.
• Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the
warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.
• A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive
adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce
vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and
costs, but these are not fully understood.
• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.
• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the
risks associated with climate change.
• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and
discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual
costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.
IPCC, AR4, WGII (2007)
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
Emission trends
GHG emissions have increased by 70% since 1970
IPCC, AR4, WGIII (2007)
There is significant mitigation potential at a range of C prices
IPCC, AR4, WGIII (2007)
Global economic mitigation potential for
different sectors at different carbon prices
7
GtCO 2-eq
6
5
4
3
2
Non-OECD/EIT
EIT
OECD
World total
1
Energy supply
0
00
US$/tCO2-eq
<1
<5
0
<2
0
00
<1
<5
<2
0
0
Transport
Buildings
Industry
Agriculture
Forestry
Waste
IPCC, AR4, WGIII (2007)
The cost of stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations by 2100
increases with the stringency of the stabilization target
Stabilizing at 590-710 ppm CO2-eq. will cost -0.6 to1.23% of GDP
Stabilizing at 535-590 ppm CO2-eq. will cost 0.2 to 2.5% of GDP
Stabilizing at 445-535 ppm CO2-eq. will cost 3% of GDP
IPCC, AR4, WGIII (2007)
Main findings of IPCC
on mitigation
• A significant proportion of GHG emissions can be
mitigated at relatively low cost by 2030
• There is significant mitigation potential in all sectors
(industry, energy, buildings, transport, agriculture, forestry
and waste)
• Lower atmospheric GHG stabilization levels will cost
more
• In order to stabilize the concentration of GHGs in the
atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and decline
thereafter. The lower the stabilization level, the more
quickly this peak and decline would need to occur.
• Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will
have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower
stabilization levels
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• The political process
• Conclusions
The Political Process
• UNFCCC (United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change - since 1992)
• COP (Conference of Parties)
• Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC (2008-2012) –
only developed countries – significant not
ratification by e.g. US, Australia
• Bali Roadmap (what will come after 2012) – will
include developing countries as well as
(hopefully) non-Kyoto developed countries
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Talks under the Kyoto Protocol
• 1st commitment period expires in 2012
• AWG-KP: to negotiate further commitments for
Annex I Parties for the period beyond 2012
– Analysis of mitigation potential for different sectors:
policies, measures and technologies
– Analysis of means to reach emission reduction targets
and identification of ways to enhance their
effectiveness and contribution to sustainable
development
Slide courtesy of Fernando Castellanos Silveira, UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The Bali Action Plan
• Two-year negotiation process for a broad
response to climate change.
• Key elements:
–
–
–
–
–
Shared vision
Mitigation
Adaptation
Finance
Technology.
Slide courtesy of Fernando Castellanos Silveira, UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The Bali Action Plan
Slide courtesy of Fernando Castellanos Silveira, UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Elements of the Bali Action Plan
Action by developing
Action by developed
countries
countries
appropriate
Measurable, reportable, Nationally
mitigation actions
verifiable mitigation
supported and enabled by
action/commitments
technology, financing and
capacity building
Implementation of action
Reducing emissions from
on adaptation
deforestation
Support action by
Implementation of action on
developing countries
adaptation
Cooperative sectoral approaches and
sector-specific actions on mitigation
Slide courtesy of Fernando Castellanos Silveira, UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• It is necessary to have a comprehensive, long-term
climate change strategy
• There is a need for both adaptation and mitigation
– The less we mitigate now, the more we will need
adaptation later – and more resources will be needed.
• There are many challenges but also many
opportunities
• The poorest countries are the most vulnerable and
will be the most affected by climate change
Slide courtesy of Fernando Castellanos Silveira, UNFCCC
Outline
• What is the IPCC?
• Main findings of IPCC on climate
• Main findings of IPCC on impacts and
adaptation
• Main findings of IPCC on mitigation
• Climate change in Scotland over the next
century
• Conclusions
John Holdren, President of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science
• ‘We basically have three choices –mitigation,
adaptation, and suffering.
• We’re going to do some of each. The question
is what the mix is going to be.
• The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation
will be required, and the less suffering there
will be.’
Slide courtesy of Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
Conclusions
• Climate change is real, human induced and is changing
ever more rapidly
• Adaptation will cost money, but not as much as the cost of
the damage caused by climate change. Some will be
necessary due to climate change already “in the pipeline”
• Mitigation is possible and a significant proportion can be
met by low cost options. Mitigation reduces the amount of
adaptation necessary
• The problem is enormous, but there is hope that we can
deal with it. Drastic emission reduction targets are
necessary (e.g. 80% reduction by 2050) – these will be
difficult to achieve and creative, sustainable solutions in all
sectors will be needed.
Thank you for your attention