Transcript Global climate - Electronic, Electrical and Systems Engineering

Global climate systems
LC Intro to Energy Engineering
This layer
keeps us alive
The Earth from Apollo 17, 7th December 1972 NASA image #EL-1996-00155
Atmospheric
Aurora
layers
Meteors
Ozone Layer
Aircraft
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric circulation
Ocean circulation
Sea surface temperature map for the northern
hemisphere summer. The yellow, orange, and red
colours show water temperatures warm enough to
sustain cyclones (> 26.5°C)
Prevailing wind
The hydrological cycle
Evaporation
Groundwater
Cooling effect of ash plumes
• Mt Etna
• Greek wildfires
NASA MODIS images
Global Effects of
Mount Pinatubo
What have we seen?
• “Climate change” / “Global warming”
– Phrase often used to further political ends
– Often confuses many different scientific
questions
• Particularly cause and effect
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in
public minds is
exacerbated by
some false
assumptions
– Global climate is
constant
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in public minds is exacerbated by some
false assumptions
– Global effects will be slow to occur
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in
public minds is
exacerbated by
some false
assumptions
– Any effect is easily
reversed
IPCC synthesis report
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in public minds is exacerbated
by some false assumptions
– A few degrees warmer will be great
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in public minds is exacerbated by
some false assumptions
– Effects will be the same everywhere
Global climatic systems…
• This confusion in public minds is exacerbated by
some false assumptions
– It’s all a natural cycle anyway
Global climatic systems…
• Some reports suggest that an increase in
extreme weather has taken place in recent
decades
– there are inadequate data to determine whether
such global changes have occurred consistently
over the 20th century
– On regional scales there is clear evidence of
changes in some extremes and climate variability
indicators
• for example, fewer frosts in several widespread areas
• an increase in the proportion of rainfall from extreme
events over the contiguous states of the USA
Global climatic systems…
• It can also be seen that
the economic damages
from weather related
disasters have
increased dramatically,
although much of this
may be attributed to a
greater number of
people living in
vulnerable areas
Atmospheric circulation
Ocean circulation
Linked by the Hydrological cycle
UNESCO
Linked by the Carbon cycle
Some are quick
Some are slow
Global climatic cycles
• Many factors influence these cycles
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Carbon dioxide releases
Methane releases
Atmospheric aerosols
Volcanic dust
Earth’s “wobble”
Solar cycles
etc
Global climatic cycles
• and these cycles affect each other
El Niño / La Niña / ENSO
• ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
La Niña (cold) Conditions
December 1998
Normal Conditions
December 1993
El Niño (warm) Conditions
December 1997
ENSO index
•
•
•
•
•
sea-level pressure
components of the surface wind
sea surface temperature
surface air temperature
total cloudiness fraction of the sky
COMET webcast (meted.ucar.edu)
• Full webcast is on WebCT
• There is also a North Atlantic Oscillation
Global cycles – Local effects
• Global climate is not a steady state
– A series of interlocking cycles
• Climate change is not a gradual shift
– A perturbation of the system
• Effects can be rapid and unpredictable
– “cascade of uncertainty”
– do we wait to prepare?
Range of major uncertainties that are typical in impact assessments, showing the "uncertainty
explosion" as these ranges are multiplied to encompass a comprehensive range of future
consequences, including physical, economic, social, and political impacts and policy responses
(modified after Jones, 2000, and "cascading pyramid of uncertainties" in Schneider, 1983)
Climate change
• Understanding the global system
– Education, awareness and action
– What does this mean for us?
Earth rise – Apollo 11 (NASA)
Time for a break
Electricity production in the UK
2006
• What % fuel is used in the UK?
Electricity production in the UK
What does the UK think?
• 2007 World Environment Review
interviewed consumers in 14 countries
about attitudes to climate change
• Of those polled in the UK (1018)
– 81% are concerned about climate change
What does the UK think?
• 78% think that the UK Government should
make it easier for people to buy renewable
electricity
• 73% think that the UK is too dependent on
non-renewable fossil fuels
• 87% think that all electricity should contain
a minimum 25% of power generated from
renewable energy sources, such as wind and
solar power. Only 4% disagree
What does the UK think?
•
•
•
•
•
•
78% want to increase use of solar power
77% want to increase use of wind power
65% want to increase use of hydro power (!)
65% want to increase use of tidal power
37% want to increase use of geothermal power
24% want to increase use of nuclear power
What does the UK think?
• 91% are concerned to some degree
about radioactive contamination from
the nuclear industry
• 85% are concerned to some degree
about nuclear power in general
What does the UK think?
• 89% switch off lights when leaving a room
• 80% have some energy-saving light bulbs
• 71% switch off electrical appliances at the
plug when they are not in use
• 68% have turned down the thermostat
• 51% have installed insulation of some kind
• 17% reduce energy use by washing clothes in
cold water
What does the UK think?
Biggest threats to the world’s climate
UK government policy
• Climate Change Bill (2007)
– 60% cut in the UK carbon emission by 2050
(compared to 1990 levels)
– a target of between 26% and 32% by 2020
• Renewables Obligation
–
–
–
–
–
2006/07 renewables target 6.7% of energy
this rises to 10.4% in 2011/12
with an additional 1% pa until 2016/17
target of 20% by 2020
Subsidy is likely to be £1 billion pa by 2010
So what do people want?
• People want more “green” energy
– but they object to planning permission
– they may not understand the options
– and they really don’t like high costs
• They worry about nuclear energy
• They make some savings
– but demand projected to increase 6%
before 2020
So what can we do?
BBC Electricity calculator
• Simple but effective to highlight the
problem
• Makes assumptions
– “How the calculator works”
• 6 groups to look at various areas of
improvement
• Report back next week
– Build up a realistic idea for 2020