Transcript Introduction - San Jose State University

MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 11
Radiative Forcing
Eugene Cordero
San Jose State University
Outline
 GHG/Aerosols
 Radiative Forcing
 Activity
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
Climate Change: how much and in
what direction?
 We have studied the various factors that contribute to
climate change.
 Some of these contribute to warming the climate
 Some of these contribute to cooling the climate
 It would be helpful if we could develop a tool for
measuring the strength of the various warming and
cooling factors.
 The Radiative Forcing calculation is a tool for measuring
how climate will change due to a particular forcing
mechanism.
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Anthropogenic Forcing
 Without doubt, humans have altered the radiative balance of
the Earth system. The changes can be partitioned into the
following categories:
– Enhanced greenhouse gases
 CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC’s
– Ozone
 Tropospheric
 Stratospheric
– Aerosols (Natural and Anthropogenic)
First part of
 Sulfate
today’s lecture
 Carbon
 Biomass burning (black carbon)
– Land Use Changes
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
Atmospheric Aerosols
 Microscopic liquid/solid particles
– Natural sources - examples:
 Volcanoes (sulfur)
 Fires, dust
– Dust, sulfate particles reflect incoming sunlight:
___________________
Cool atmosphere
– Smoky soot absorb incoming sunlight:
____________________
warm atmosphere
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Aerosols (II)
 Natural sources include:
– Dust, sea salt and volcanic emissions
 Anthropogenic sources include
– Automobiles, factories and biomass burning.
 Biomass burning:
– Anthropogenic portion: burning of large forests for
agriculture
 Aerosols have ‘short’ relative lifetimes
– They can ‘float’ around for a few days to a week or two.
 Aerosols affect the Earth’s energy balance by
– reflecting incoming energy and/or
– absorbing incoming shortwave and longwave radiation.
 Cooling influence is stronger
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Aerosols (III)
 There are three major types of aerosols
– Sulfate aerosols
– Black carbon aerosols
– Organic carbon aerosols
– All have been increasing in concentration
over the last 150 years – the industrial
revolution.
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Aerosol Observations from NASA Satellite
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Sulfate Aerosols




Natural source: volcanoes
Anthropogenic sources: burning of fossil fuels
90% of sulfur aerosols are anthropogenic
Example: SO2 (sulfur dioxide– From coal combustion
 Sulfate aerosols increasing globally
 Sulfate aerosols reflect incoming solar radiation.
 Total effect on Earth’s energy budget
– Cooling
– Radiative Forcing: negative
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Black Carbon (Aerosols)
 Natural source:
– Natural biomass burning
 Anthropogenic source
– incomplete combustion from coal and diesel
engines; biomass burning
 Also know as - ‘Elemental Carbon’ or ‘soot’
 Black carbon absorbs solar radiation
– It’s black so has a low albedo.
 Potentially harmful if inhaled.

Total effect on Earth’s energy budget
– Warming
– Radiative Forcing: positive
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Organic Carbon (Aerosols)
 Natural source
– Natural biomass burning
 Anthropogenic source
– Burning fuel
– Biomass burning
 Produced as a result of incomplete combustion.
 These aerosols are reflective
 Total effect on Earth’s energy budget
– Cooling
– Radiative Forcing: negative
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Indirect Effect due to aerosols (I)
 Certain aerosols may enhance cloud production and
character
 Recall how clouds form
– Water vapor condenses to liquid water
– This processes requires ‘cloud condensation
nuclei’
– Examples of cloud condensation nuclei
 Dust, salt, smoke (all of which are natural
aerosols)
 So, aerosols (with both natural and anthropogenic
origin)
– may serve as cloud condensation nuclei.
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Indirect Effect due to aerosols (II)
 More cloud condensation nuclei
– would enhance cloud production
 The question then is how would clouds change
– Current understanding is that
This processes would increase cloud albedo
 This idea of enhanced cloud formation by increases in aerosols
is termed
– The ‘indirect effect’ of aerosols
 Understanding of these processes is currently incomplete.
– But model results suggest more low clouds and thus

Total effect on Earth’s energy budget
– Cooling
– Radiative Forcing: negative
– Cirrus cloud (high
clouds) production possible, but still
MET 112 Global Climate Change
uncertain how important.
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Weather, Aerosols and Climate –
film clip
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Over the last 250 years, CO2
concentrations have increased. The
earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
iv
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0%
Over the last 250 years, CH4
concentrations have increased. The
earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, sulfate aerosol
concentrations have increased. The
earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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r..
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...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, CFC
concentrations have increased. The
earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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s
sa
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St
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or
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er
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, black carbon
aerosol concentrations have increased.
The earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
iv
ec
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R
R
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iv
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le
s
sa
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St
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or
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er
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, the earth’s albedo
has changed as a result of deforestation.
The earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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St
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or
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er
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er
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, organic carbon
aerosol concentrations have increased.
The earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
iv
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R
R
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iv
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le
s
sa
m
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St
ay
s
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or
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en
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er
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er
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, the amount of low
clouds in the atmosphere has increased.
The earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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s
sa
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St
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, the intensity of the
sun’s incoming radiation has increased.
The earth’s surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
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s
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St
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or
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er
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r..
.
...
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0%
Over the last 250 years, aircraft induced
high clouds have increased. The earth’s
surface would therefore
1. Receive more energy
resulting in warming
2. Receive less energy
resulting in cooling
3. Stay the same
100%
0%
iv
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0%
Radiative Forcing:
Positive Values:
Negative Values:
Radiative Forcing:
Positive Values:
Warming the Earth’s surface
Negative Values:
Cooling the Earth’s Surface
Radiative Forcing
 A change imposed upon the climate system
which modifies the Earth’s energy (radiative)
balance.
 Radiative forcing is usually given in units of
– watts per square meter (W/m2),
 Positive values of radiative forcing
– contribute to heating of the surface,
 Negative values of radiative forcing
– Contribute to cooling of surface.
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Radiative Forcing
 Examples of radiative forcing mechanisms
include
– Changes in solar intensity
– Volcanic activity
– Changes in atmospheric composition
 CO2
 Aerosols
 Ozone
– Changes in land surfaces
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Radiative Forcing
 Changes in these mechanisms
– produce changes to the earth energy
budget.
 The magnitude of the radiative forcing
determine how strong the effect is.
 Radiative forcing is computed by comparing
– Pre-industrial energy balance (1750) with
today’s energy balance (2000)
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Enhanced Greenhouse Gases
 Greenhouse gas concentrations have increased over
the last 150 years dramatically
 The main anthropogenic contribution to greenhouse
gases concentrations include:
 CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC’s (Halons)
 Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are well
observed
 Radiative Forcing: positive
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Ozone
 Ozone exists in upper atmosphere
– Ozone layer (stratospheric ozone)
– Ozone layer protects the earth from harmful UV radiation
– Ozone layer responsible for heating the stratosphere
– Stratospheric ozone levels have been declining over last 20
years (ozone depletion)
– Radiative Forcing: negative
 Ozone exists in lower atmosphere
– Tropospheric ozone is another word for ‘smog’
– Tropospheric ozone levels have increased over last 50
years.
– Radiative Forcing: positive
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Land Use Change
 Changes in the land use have contributed to
– Albedo changes
 Deforestation has been largest contributor
 High latitudes have been most affected
– Pre Industrial: Snow covered forests (low albedo)
– Current: Open snow covered areas (high albedo)
 Again, large uncertainties remain
 Radiative Forcing: negative
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Radiative Forcing from the IPCC
Radiative Forcing from the IPCC
1
5
3
2
10
8
4
7
6
9
11
13
12
Radiative Forcing from the IPCC
What does this part of the diagram mean?
Radiative Forcing from the IPCC
What does this part of the diagram mean?
Increases in greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,
N2O and Halocarbons) between 1750
through today (2000) have caused a 2.4
Watts per meter squared increase in the
earth’s radiation budget.
This by itself would warm the earth’s
surface.
Radiative Forcing from the IPCC
What does this plot mean?
Increases in greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,
N2O and Halocarbons) between 1750
through today (2000) have caused a 2.4
Watts per meter squared increase in the
earth’s radiation budget.
This by itself would warm the earth’s
surface.
Radiative forcing = 2.4  0.2 or between 2.2
and 2.6
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Example

Imagine you and your partner get offers to work for a new progressive
company. They use a sliding pay scale. You will get paid: $35,000  5,000
depending on your performance and your partner will get paid $75,000 
100,000 . Calculate your total average salary (mean) and the range of
possible salaries.
– The total (combined) salary is:
– Your salary ranges from
– Your partner’s salary ranges from
 Maximum possible salary:
 Minimum possible salary:


Example

Imagine you and your partner get offers to work for a new progressive
company. They use a sliding pay scale. You will get paid: $35,000  5,000
depending on your performance and your partner will get paid $75,000 
100,000 . Calculate you are your partner’s total average salary and the range
of possible salaries.
– The total (combined) salary is:
= $110,000
– Your salary ranges from
$30,000 to 40,000
– Your partner’s salary ranges from
$ -25,000 to 175,000
 Maximum possible salary:
$215,000
 Minimum possible salary:
$5,000
 So, the total salary is $110,000  105,000
 Big uncertainity!
Terms in the radiative forcing diagram
 Term 1: Increases in CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs
– producing warming (positive)
 Term 2: Decreases in upper atmospheric ozone (ozone
depletion)
– provide less heating of upper atmosphere (negative)
 Term 3: Increases in lower atmosphere ozone
– produce warming (positive)
 Term 4: Increases in sulfate aerosols
– produce cooling (negative)
 Term 5: Increases in black carbon
– produce warming (positive)
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Terms in the radiative forcing diagram
 Term 6: Increases in organic carbon aerosol
– produce cooling (negative)
 Term 7: Increases in biomass burning aerosols
– produce cooling (negative)
 Term 8: Increases in mineral dust
– could warm or cool (unknown at present)
 Term 9: Increases in aerosols alter cloud properties
(more low level clouds)
– produce cooling (negative)
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Terms in the radiative forcing diagram
 Term 10-11: Increases in aircraft induced high
clouds (contrails and cirrus clouds)
– produce warming (positive)
 Term 12: Increases in the removal of forests
(land use) which cause albedo changes
– produce cooling (negative)
 Term 13: Increases in the strength of the sun
– produce warming (positive)
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
Radiative Forcing example
 Imagine that the only two radiative forcing terms are
changing the climate are:
– Greenhouse Gases
– Ozone Depletion
2.4  0.2 (2.2 to 2.6)
-0.1  0.1 (0 to -0.2)
 Calculate the radiative forcing just due to those two
terms including the uncertainties: Mean = 2.3
Add the two forcing terms (Mean):
2.4 + (-0.1) = 2.3
Calculate range of values
2.6 + 0 = 2.6; 2.2+(-0.2)=2.0
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Range of values
between (2.0 to 2.6)
Positive Forcing!
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Uncertainty or Range of values possible
 To calculate the range of possible values:
– Add the most positive radiative forcing
– Add the most negative radiative forcing
 This will determine the range of possible
values.
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
Activity
1. Calculate the total mean radiative forcing from the
provided figure of individual radiative forcing from
the IPCC. You may omit the mineral dust and
aviation terms. Please show your work!
2. Calculate the total range of possible values from the
above calculation
3. What conclusions does the total mean radiative
forcing tell us about how the climate has changed?
4. How does the range of values (or uncertainties)
affect our above conclusions?
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
Q1: What is the total mean radiative
forcing
Between -5 and -3 W/m2
Between -3.0 and -1.0 W/m2
Between -2.0 and -1.0 W/m2
Between -1.0 and -0.1 W/m2
Between 0 and 1.0 W/m2
Between 1.0 and 3.0 W/m2
Between 3 and 5 W/m2
Between 5 and 9 W/m2
90%
6%
0% 0%
0% 0%
2% 2%
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Q2: What is the maximum radiative
forcing
Between -5 and -3 W/m2
Between -3.0 and -1.0 W/m2
Between -1.0 and -0.1 W/m2
Between 0 and 1.0 W/m2
Between 1.0 and 2.0 W/m2
Between 2 and 4 W/m2
Between 4 and 6 W/m2
100%
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Q2: What is the minimum radiative
forcing
Between -5 and -3 W/m2
Between -3.0 and -1.0 W/m2
Between -1.0 and -0.1 W/m2
Between 0 and 1.0 W/m2
Between 1.0 and 2.0 W/m2
Between 2 and 4 W/m2
Between 4 and 6 W/m2
63%
15% 15%
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Q3: What conclusions does the mean
forcing tell us
1. Warming forcing outweighs
cooling
2. Cooling forcing outweighs
warming
3. Human induced warming is much
stronger than naturally forced
warming.
4. Both 1 and 3
5. Both 2 and 3
56%
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2% 0%
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Q4: What conclusions does the range
of radiative forcing tell us
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2.
The warming forcing is more certain than the
cooling.
The cooling forcing is more certain than the
warming.
The earth should be warming, but by how
much is difficult to say because of the
uncertainty of the cooling factors.
The cooling is stronger than the warming and
thus the earth should cool.
Both 1 and 3
Both 1 and 4
Both 2 and 3
Both 2 and 4
Th
1.
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Energy Balance
 The Earth’s atmosphere and surface are in radiative
balance:
– Energy coming in = energy going out
 This balance is true everywhere:
– At the earth’s surface
– At the top of the atmosphere
– Within the atmosphere
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Activity 12
In the IPCC estimate of the Earth’s energy
balance, show how the earth’s energy balance
is maintained at the:
A) Top of the atmosphere
B) Within the atmosphere
C) Earth’s surface
Be sure to indicate how the energy is
balanced (using numbers) and where that
energy comes from at each level.
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MET 112 Global Climate Change
What is the energy balance at the top of
the earth’s atmosphere?
342 Wm-2 in, 235 Wm-2 out
342 Wm-2 in, 342 Wm-2 out
107 Wm-2 in, 235 Wm-2 out
77 Wm-2 in 77 Wm-2 out
100%
0% 0%
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ou
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-2
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34
1.
2.
3.
4.
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What is the energy balance at the
Earth’s surface?
1.
2.
3.
4.
324 Wm-2 in, 390 Wm-2 out
168 Wm-2 in, 168 Wm-2 out
522 Wm-2 in, 522 Wm-2 out
492 Wm-2 in 492 Wm-2 out
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in
49
2
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49
52
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88
What is the energy balance within the
atmosphere?
1.
2.
3.
4.
596 Wm-2 in, 596 Wm-2 out
519 Wm-2 in, 519 Wm-2 out
350 Wm-2 in, 350 Wm-2 out
492 Wm-2 in 492 Wm-2 out
MET 112 Global Climate Change
in
49
2
W
m
-..
.
W
m
..
2
49
52
2
W
m
-2
W
m
-2
in
,
52
2
W
m
..
16
8
in
,
W
m
-2
8
16
4
32
0 of 66
W
m
-2
in
,
39
0
W
m
..
0% 0% 0% 0%
89