Transcript Verwarring rondom hockeystick

Climategate
Is this a conspiracy of the
sceptics or the end of the
global warming hype?
Marcel Crok, science writer
Wageningen, 9 December 2009
Global warming poll
1) The recent warming was mostly natural
2) The recent warming was mainly caused
by humans, but greenhouse gases are
not the dominating forcing; other
forcings like aerosols and land use
changes are as important.
3) The recent warming was caused by
greenhouse gases. This is the IPCC
hypothesis.
Copenhagen vs Climategate
• Copenhagen: 15,000 delegates
from almost 200 countries gather
in Copenhagen to ‘save the planet’
from catastrophic warming
• Climategate: thousands of emails
and documents hacked or leaked
from CRU. Did IPCC scientists
manipulate the data? Is it fraud?
Rajendra Pachauri, Opening address COP15
"Given the wide-ranging nature of change that is
likely to be taken in hand, some naturally find it
inconvenient to accept its inevitability," Dr Pachauri
said. "The recent incident of stealing the e-mails of
scientists at the University of East Anglia shows that
some would go to the extent of carrying out illegal
acts, perhaps in an attempt to discredit the IPCC.
"But the panel has a record of transparent and
objective assessment stretching over 21 years
performed by tens of thousands of dedicated
scientists from all corners of the globe."
Pachauri at COP15
• Stolen or leaked?
• illegal acts, perhaps in an attempt to
discredit the IPCC
• transparent and objective assessment
• tens of thousands of dedicated
scientists from all corners of the globe
Roger Pielke sr in 2008
Climate Assessment Oligarchy –
The IPCC
• An oligarchy is a “form of government in which
all power is vested in a few persons or in a
dominant class or clique; government by the few.”
This definition certainly fits with the IPCC
• This small community of climate scientists is
controlling the agenda with respect to the
assessment of climate change. This is an
oligarchy.
Climategate
“I can’t see either of these papers
being in the next IPCC report. Kevin
and I will keep them out somehow –
even if we have to redefine what the
peer-review literature is !”
Phil Jones to Michael Mann (2004)
Climategate
“The fact is that we can’t account for the
lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data
published in the August BAMS 09
supplement on 2008 shows there should
be even more warming: but the data are
surely wrong.”
Kevin Trenberth to Mike Mann (Oct 2009)
Climategate
“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature
trick of adding in the real temps to
each series for the last 20 years (ie
from 1981 onwards) and from 1961
for Keith’s to hide the decline.”
Phil Jones to Ray Bradley (1999)
Poll about the ‘trick’
1) RealClimate: Scientists often
use the term “trick” to refer to
a “a good way to deal with a
problem”, rather than
something that is “secret”
2) McIntyre on CNN this monday:
Let’s be frank, the trick really
was a trick
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Mann, Bradley, Hughes (MBH99)
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Michael Mann with tree rings
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Presentation third IPCC rapport (2001)
Sir John Houghton, co-chairman
McIntyre and McKitrick
• McIntyre, statistician, career in
mineral exploration business
• McKitrick, economist, Univ. of Guelph
• McIntyre: “Hockey stick looks like a
dotcom graph” Too good to be true!
• McIntyre asks Mann for the data in
2003; however there is no existing
ftp-server!
• McIntyre intrigued…
Up: average of 450 series of Mann.
Down: reconstruction Mann after his method
Bristlecone pine in
California. This
tree dominates the
whole
reconstruction!
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Conclusion: hockey stick is broken,
Mann is wounded
Spaghetti graph in TAR
Briffa reconstruction declining after 1960
Solution to this ‘inconvenient’
decline in TAR?
Truncate it in 1960 = Hide the decline
Poll about the ‘trick’
1) RealClimate: Scientists often
use the term “trick” to refer to
a “a good way to deal with a
problem”, rather than
something that is “secret”
2) McIntyre on CNN this monday:
Let’s be frank, the trick really
was a trick
Debate
1) Are the scientists involved in
the CRU Hack the offenders or
the victims?
2) Is there a conspiracy of the
alarmists?
3) Should these people (Jones,
Mann etc.) be banned from the
peer review process and the
IPCC reports?
Climategate
“The fact is that we can’t account for the
lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data
published in the August BAMS 09
supplement on 2008 shows there should
be even more warming: but the data are
surely wrong.”
Kevin Trenberth to Mike Mann (Oct 2009)
How not to measure temperature
How not to measure temperature
How not to measure temperature
Surfacestations.org
US temperature
US temperature
Issues with the temperature
• Surface T measurements were never
designed for climate research
• In the US we have the ‘best’ network,
but still only a few conform with the
WMO standards
• Most of the trend in the US is due to
adjustments! What is the justification
• Still, 30-ies as warm or even warmer
than now!
Issues with the temperature
• Globally we have three datasets:
CRU, GISS, NCDC
• Phil Jones of CRU for years refuses to
release his raw data and source code
• Critics did many FOIA requests, all
blocked by CRU
• CRU even said: we lost the raw data!
• Climategate: source code leaked as
well, now investigated
Issues with the temperature
• Defend of Phil Jones after the leak
(November 25, 2009):
• “….Our global temperature series tallies
with those of other, completely independent,
groups of scientists working for Nasa and the
National Climate Data Centre in the United
States, among others. Even if you were to
ignore our findings, theirs show the same
results. The facts speak for themselves; there
is no need for anyone to manipulate them.”
Issues with the temperature
• Reaction Roger Pielke sr:
• These claims of that the surface temperature
series are “completely independent” is false
and Phil Jones knows that
• “The data sets are distinguished from one
another by differences in the details of their
construction.”
• “Since the three chosen data sets utilize many
of the same raw observations there is a degree
of interdependence.”
Issues with the temperature
• Overlap between CRU, GISS and
NCDC is around 90% of the raw data
• CRU and NCDC don’t correct for
UHI
• GISS does but in a strange way
• Only 1500 stations used now on land
of which around 90% are airports!
• So... What are we measuring?
Are we measuring the growth
in air traffic?
Now some simple logic
• Even if you do accept the global
temperature datasets and accepts 0.8
degree C of warming, this does not
proof AGW!
• Melting glaciers, melting sea ice, rising sea
levels etc. do not proof AGW either.
• These phenomena say nothing about the
cause
• But how did IPCC prove AGW then,
because they say it’s very likely?
John von Neumann
With four parameters I can fit
an elephant, and with five I can
make him wiggle his trunk.
Now some simple logic
• So fitting past (already known!) data
doesn’t proof anything either!
• Many models can do that
• The AGW models can be tweaked in
many ways, i.e. by adjusting the
forcing of aerosols
• A theory gets more reliable if it can
predict unknown data, that means in
this case future data
Models vs Observations
Now some simple logic
• So the models ‘fail’ immediately when
they have to predict new data
• This means AGW is now less likely
than ten years ago
• There never has been direct or strong
evidence for AGW
• Are there alternatives? Oh yes, many
• Some examples: the sun (uv, Cosmic
rays), clouds, ocean cycles
Climategate
“As you know, I’m not political. If
anything, I would like to see the
climate change happen, so the
science could be proved right,
regardless of the consequences. This
isn’t being political, it is being
selfish.”
Phil Jones to John Christy (July 2005)
Climategate
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