Transcript ¡¡AGUAS!!

Climate change and the daily press:
did we miss the point entirely?
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Debate? What debate?
Is the science “in”?
• Scepticism, more or less common in the media
• ‘Deniers’, ‘naysayers’, ‘challengers’, etc.
Sometimes, pretty high
profile
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“¡Oiga usté…!”
Rajoy and his cousin
• Not a former VP
— Aspiring PM
— Meeting with business people:
“We cannot turn (climate change) into the most
important problem in the world”
Does it even matter?
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My right arm for a source
“A reasonable doubt?”
• Rajoy’s cousin is a Physicist
— “I don’t know a lot… but I assume he must know something”
— Top 10 scientists
— Tomorrow’s weather in Sevilla
— The Earth, 300 years into the future?
It does matter!
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Why it matters
He’s just a politician!
• Indeed, Rajoy doesn’t know a lot
— weather ≠ climate
— “My cousin, he is a Physics Professor”
— “He must know something”
— Therefore, Rajoy takes his word at face value…
— Must we all?
Principle of Authority
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Bias for balance
Please, oh please… be an authority for me!
• Are you a scientist? A politician?
• A stakeholder?
• Can I quote you?
• Will you give me a little balance, please?
(Boykoff & Boykoff => bias)
Is there a ‘source
of choice’?
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IPCC
How about a primary source?
• What--climate scientists themselves?!?
• There are thousands of them!!
• Well, indeed…
…but there’s IPCC
• Metanalysis (they don’t do the research)
• Consensus
• Are they infallible?
Is it a metter of
stridency, then?
• Probably not
• But sceptics lack a unified voice
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Give me an F!!
Not the battle of the db
• Let’s pursue the science!
• IPCC: More than just the hockey stick
• While we’re at it…
where’s the science of the sceptics?
So what has IPCC
contributed as a source?
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A couple of questions
Is it?… Are we?…
• IPCC Report 2001 (that is 2001 BG)
• Is climate change a reality?
• Are humans at least partly responsible?
IPCC: Yes… and Yes
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Climate Change: Here to stay?
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The end of the debate?
Was this a turning point?
• Before IPCC 2001 and after IPCC 2001?
• Well… yes!!
• Shift in scientific debate within IPCC
• IPCC is not the only source…
… but it is not any source either
Did the press report the
shift in timely fashion?
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Here, there… and not everywhere
Analysis of coverage
• La Jornada, Reforma, El Universal
• El País, Le Monde, The New York Times
• September 1st, 2000 to January 1st, 2001
• Should do TV, radio and W3!!
Results?…
As expected (sadly)
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“Blissfully unaware”
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You reap what you sow
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COP 16: Total de notas
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COP 16: Duración
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COP 16: Encuadres
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COP 16: Fuentes
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With press like this, who wants enemies?
Is this quality coverage?
• Let’s rephrase: does it function?
• What is journalism for?
KOVACH & ROSENSTIEL
“The primary purpose of journalism is to provide
citizens with the information they need to be free and
Really?…
self-governing”
What’s a journalist
supposed to do?
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He frees me… he frees me not…
Journalism shall make you free!?!
• How can it be done?
• Citizens make decisions
• Journalism ought to inform decision
processes
A functional theory of
science journalism
in action
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What do you need to know?
Framing stems from the needs of the public
• What decisions might readers want to make?
• What do they need to know to make them?
• Decisions drive points of information
• Content analysis in reverse!!
Back to IPCC 2001
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Make my own mind
Remember Rajoy’s cousin?
• Neither Rajoy, nor his cousin, not even IPCC
is to be trusted blindly
• Rather, give me the information I need to
make up my own mind based on decisions I
make
• Is climate change for real?
• Are we causing it?
• How do they know? Decision grid
• What ought to be done/stopped?
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Decision grid
• Is there really such a thing as
global warming?
• Why do scientists think that
global warming is not due to
natural climate variability?
• Why do scientists think that
human activities are responsible for
global warming?
• How dangerous is this warming
trend?
• What demands could I make from
my government in realtion to
climate change?
• Mean temperature records (0.6ºC ±
0.2ºC)
• Unprecedented in the historical record
of the last few centuries
• Greenhouse model
• Computer simulations without CO2
forcing
• Human activities => CO2 emissions
• “Hockey stick” (<T> and CO2 vs.
time)
• Extreme weather
• Coastal vulnerability
• Mitigation strategies and technology
possible for local planning
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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Table 5:
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And in the end
Conclusions
• Functional model for Science Journalism
• Diagnostic tool and guidance for coverage
• Decisions by citizens drive contents
• Mexican press missed IPCC 2001
• How could Mexican citizens have made up
their minds concerning CC back in 2001?
• Future work: charcaterise science content
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FIN
javier crúz
Dirección General de Divulgación de la Ciencia
UNAM
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