Transcript The Cost of Inaction - Griffith University

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Charlie Hargroves
Executive Director,
The Natural Edge Project
Research Fellow, Griffith University
“The cost of inaction: reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.”
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
The 1971 Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory
Source: Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC), Stockholm,
edited by Carroll L. Wilson and William H. Matthews
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950
Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from
the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429-436.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Average Global Temperature Record
(IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis - Summary for Policy Makers).
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950
Source: Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from
the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429-436.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Global Warming Predictions from an average of 3 degree global average
Source: Modelled using the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Stabilisation levels and probability ranges for temperature increases
Source: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 13.4)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Projected Australian temperature change 2000-2100
Source: CSIRO (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Projected Australian rainfall change 2000-2100
Source: CSIRO (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Climate change impacts on Australia
Source: Summary from Preston, B.L. and Jones R.N. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Australia
and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, CSIRO.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
What about the financial costs?
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Gross Domestic Product vs. Estimated Environmental Costs (billions)
for the United States of America from 1950-2004.
Source: Data sourced from Talberth, J et al (2006)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Estimates of the costs of global warming in the United States
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute (2008) The Cost of Climate Change What We’ll Pay if
Global Warming Continues Unchecked, Tuffs University.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
“The costs of action to the global
economy would be roughly 1
percent of GDP, while the costs of
inaction could be from 5-20
percent of GDP… The investment
that takes place in the next 10-20
years will have a profound effect
on the climate in the second half
of this century and the next.”
The Stern Review, 2006
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Types of costs associated with climate change
Source: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Early Action on Climate Change Costs Less Than Delayed Action
Source: Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Conceptual and stylised representation of risks and benefits of transition strategies
Source: TNEP (2008)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
How can we reduce costs?
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Conceptual and stylised representation of a decoupling graph
Source: TNEP (2008)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Decoupling Progress in the Netherlands 1990 – 2005
Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2007)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Conceptual and stylised representation of waves of innovation
Source: TNEP (2005)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
McKinsey Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 1991
Source: Cited in MacNeill, J. (1991) Beyond Interdependence, Oxford University Press, New York.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
McKinsey Australian Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 2007
Source: McKinsey Consulting (2007) An Australian Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction,
McKinsey Consulting.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Queensland Energy Consumption comparisons
Source: ABARE Data (2003)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Marginal and total costs of inaction
Source: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
BAU emissions and stabilisation trajectories for 450 - 550ppm CO2e
Source: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 8.3)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Illustrative Emissions Paths to Stabilisation
Source: Stern Review (2006), generated with the SiMCaP EQW model and averaged over multiple
scenarios (Meinshausen et al. 2006)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Illustrative emissions paths to stabilise at 550ppm CO2e.
Source: Stern, N. (2006)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Contraction and convergence for different countries with ‘head room’ for the rapidly
developing economies: a stylised, illustrative scenario
Source: Garnaut Interim Report (2008)
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Credit: Jocke Berglund, Fotoflyget, Skandinavien
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
What is TNEP doing?
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
“We have learned a lot
of lessons since Natural
Capitalism came out in
1999, that I think will
make the next
explications of this
subject even more
powerful and effective,
so working with our
Natural Project Edge
collaborators I think
shows great promise,
these are very diligent
and well informed
people that I think are
doing valuable work
and we are looking
forward to cooperating
with them in ways that
will help us all to learn
faster and get more
done better.”
Amory Lovins
“The authors of this
book [have] the
energy, insight and
commitment to begin
the discussion of what I
call ‘the ultimate
integration’; that is,
integration of the
concepts of
competitiveness and
Natural Capitalism.”
Michael Fairbanks
“Within these pages
you will see that there
is reason for robust
hope, and as you read,
we hope you will be
inspired to contribute
to this magnificent reevolution of human
enterprise”
William McDonough
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
“The authors, in
producing this
introductory, technical,
teaching material and
these important
examples, have
provided a publication
which can, and must, be
widely used in our
university and technical
training institutions.”
Barry J. Grear AO
"I was thrilled and
impressed reading this
manual that features
the integrated
approach towards
resource productivity
and, ultimately,
sustainability both at
small and large scale.”
Ernst Ulrich von
Weizsäcker
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
"This Sustainable
Energy Solutions
Portfolio by The Natural
Edge Project will help
ensure all engineers
and built environment
professionals can
rapidly update their
skills and knowledge on
renewable energy and
energy efficiency
practice.”
Dr Mike Dennis
ANU Engineering
Department
"The work of the
Natural Edge project
makes me feel
optimistic. This team of
four young engineers
with an extraordinary
set of global networks
has produced a threepart bible on how to
reduce your emissions.
It's enormous, but
don't be put off by the
size. It's designed so
that you only need to
read the chapters that
relate to your
business."
Alexandra De Blas,
ABC Science Show
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
"I commend the team
from The Natural Edge
Project and their
partners for
undertaking to develop
a response to 'Our
Common Future' to
mark its 20th
anniversary."
Gro Harlem Brundtland
“The Natural Edge
Project is to be
commended for tackling
this vitally important
issue and highlighting
where in the world
already communities,
regions and nations are
creating solutions to this
great challenge of our
time.”
R.K. Pachauri
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008
Shanghai
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Publishing