Transcript Joint Efforts to Develop Climate Change Scenarios in the

Joint efforts to develop climate change
scenarios in the Caribbean using
regional climate model
Abel Centella
Institute of Meteorology
Cuba
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
OUTLINE
• Climate Change Scenarios from 1st NC to 2nd NC
• Creating and developing the PRECIS-Caribbean
initiative
• Status of cooperation and future plans
• Contribution to 2nd NC and other activities
• Lesson learned and beyond
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
Climate change scenarios, from 1st to 2nd NC
• In 1st NC many countries used GCM outputs to
produce
climate
scenarios.
May
be
MAGICC/SCENGEN was one of the more useful
tools.
• During and after the 1st NC, many NAI countries
(mainly SIDS) claim for spatial detailed information
(downscaling).
• New tools appear since then for downscaling.
PRECIS is one of them.
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
What is PRECIS?
Providing REgional
Climates for Impact
Studies.
State Variables
RCM
Domain
State Variables
A Regional Modeling
System that can be
applied to any area of the
globe to generate detailed
climate prediction at 25 or
50 km of resolution. It can
be running in standard
PCs.
Main and initial training is
provided by Hadley Center
GCM grid
RCM grid
3.7 X3.7 degrees
0.5 x 0.5 degrees
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
PRECIS looks easy. But it demands …
• Expertise and experience in atmospheric physics and
climate/weather modeling
• Dedicate PCs to run long-time experiments (six months or
more)
• Vast amounts of storage space for outputs
• Human resources to understand/analyze outputs and to
produce REGIONAL results
• Some financial resources (not too much, in some cases)
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
The PRECIS-Caribbean
initiative
• Is a regional collaborative effort to share: human and financial
resources, experiences and results;
• Was born with a PRECIS training workshop in Havana (2003),
where Cuba, Jamaica and Barbados agree to run different
experiments over common domains and to share results;
• Following workshops took place in Belize, Cuba and Jamaica.
Community Caribbean Climate Change Center provide an
strong support and involve directly;
• Centers within the Caribbean are well committed and
motivated. Avoiding the PRECIS-Caribbean died.
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
PRECIS-Caribbean status
• 50 km resolution climate projections are available for all the
countries within the region;
• 25 km results are also available for east Caribbean countries
• Outputs are now available for SNC. An online access was
developed
by
INSMET
(http://precis.insmet.cu/PrecisCaribe.htm)
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
The PRECIS-Caribbean
Status and future plans
• Training exercises are now conducted by Caribbean
institutions. INSMET experts made a training exercise
supported by CCCCC.
• The initiative is well recognized by Hadley Center, which
provide an strong support.
• More countries are included in the initiative (Belize and
Bahamas are starting to run other experiments)
• Arrangements for new experiments and reports preparation
were agree in a recent meeting in Belize
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
Examples of Results. Tropical Cyclones
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
Tropical Cyclone
proyections
Historical North Atlantic and East-Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks, 18512005
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
10
Some lesson learned
• PRECIS is more than a tool, it is an opportunity for
capacity building and technology transfer
• Regional center will realize the importance of being part of
a process. They will share the task of producing relevant
regional climate scenarios among them.
• The regional research centres must possess a willingness
to share the results of their efforts among them and with
the wider community (scientific and non-scientific).
Motivation through service.
• Shared more than results –experiences, frustrations,
region specific solutions (especially storage), problem
solving and analysis techniques
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007
Thanks so much!
Muchas gracias!
…
CGE Workshop on experiences and good practices.
Cairo, Egypt 20-22 september 2007