Transcript A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT FOR THE 21st CENTURY

A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT
FOR THE 21st CENTURY
Walter Hays, Global Alliance
for Disaster Reduction,
Vienna, Virginia, USA
THE GOAL: 7+ BILLION PEOPLE INVOLVED IN A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT
THE MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT
CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
ABOUT DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION AROUND THE
GLOBE
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
NEEDS OF 21st CENTURY
PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS
HEALTH CARE, NEW MEDICINE, and WATER
PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS
RENEWING INFRASTRUCTURE
GLOBAL WARMING
TOWARD A GLOBAL CHANGE IN
HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
PERIOD OF
IMPLEMENTA
TION
HEAR
UNDERSTAND
IDENTIFY
PERSONALIZE
POLICIES
AND
PRACTICES
AN INCREMENTAL
PROCESS
USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AS A BASIS FOR
INNOVATIVE, CONCERTED GLOBAL ACTION
IMPROVE
EDUCATION
CLARIFY
GOALS
ELEMINATE
INERTIAL
BARRIERS
INCREASE
ODDS FOR
SUCCESS
VISUALIZE
BENEFITS
ALIGN
THINKING &
ACTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NATURAL HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
COMMUNITY
GOAL: DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTR.
FACT: EVERYONE WILL
BENEFIT FROM A DISASTERRISK REDUCTION DIVIDEND
FACT: SOME HUMANS,
INSTITUTIONS, COMMUNITIES,
AND NATIONS MAY NOT
WANT TO CHANGE THEIR
BEHAVIOR ABOUT DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION
FIVE KEY STEPS
• MAKE THE GOAL CLEAR
• MAKE THE GOAL AND ITS BENEFITS
AND INERTIAL BARRIERS EASY TO
VISUALIZE
• MAKE THE GOAL POPULAR
• MARSHAL A GLOBAL POLITICAL
MANDATE FOR THE GOAL
• IMPLEMENT– INNOVATE-- IMPLEMENT
STEP 1: PROVIDE CLEAR
INFORMATION ABOUT THE GOAL,
THE BENEFITS, AND THE INERTIAL
BARRIERS TO SUCCESS.
GOAL: CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR
FLOODS
IMPROVE ON PAST
PERFORMANCE
INCREASE SCIENTIFIC
TECHNICAL AND
POLITICAL CAPACITY
IMPROVE ODDS FOR
SUCCESS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
DROUGHTS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
CHANGING HUMAN
BEHAVIOR ON DRR
RELEVANT
INCREASES PUBLIC
AWARENESS
WHAT ARE THE
BENEFITS OF A MEGAPARADIGM SHIFT ON
DRR
INCREASES
UNDERSTANDING
ENABLES POLICY
ADOPTION
INCREASES EQUITY
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Increases the "World's Mutual
Fund for Education," (i.e.,
every country has resources
for education in their budget)
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Increases disaster risk
reduction in every
community, including the
Mega-city-- a special
challenge all by itself
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Integrates goals of communities of
all sizes
• Focus all available resources on
disaster-risk reduction
• Can minimize ignorance, apathy,
political & disciplinary boundaries,
and lack of political will about DRR
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Equips, links, and
engages legions of new and
emerging professionals with
mature professionals to work
innovatively on each problem.
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Intensifies efforts in the
well-known high-risk locations
that often will lag far behind
other communities
BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM
SHIFT ON DRR
• Transfers ownership of
existing knowledge and
technology to communities
where capacity may be
insufficient to solve DRR
problems.
INERTIAL BARRIERS TO
SUCCESS
INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE
UNIVERSAL; THEY CAN BE FOUND
IN EVERY INSTITUTION,
COMMUNITY, AND NATION
INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL
• HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL
DISCIPLINARY AND POLITICAL
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
STEP 2: PUBLICIZE THE SUCCESS
STORIES FOR EACH NATION AS
THE HUMAN, INSTITUTIONAL, AND
COMMUNITY INERTIAL BARRIERS
TO CHANGE IN DRR ARE MINIMIZED
STEP 3: PROMOTE CONFORMITY OF
THINKING AND ACTION BECAUSE
PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS, AND
COMMUNITIES WILL WANT TO DO
WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING IF THEY
THINK THEIR PARADIGM WILL LEAD
TO SUCCESS
PROMOTING CONFORMITY
A PROCESS THAT BUILDS EQUITY AND MINIMIZES BARRIERS
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
Hazard Characterization
CAPACITY BUILDING
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Policy Makers
Update Knowledge Bases After
Each Disaster
Vulnerability Assessments
Practitioners
Risk and Loss Assessments
Disaster Scenarios
Emergency Managers
Up Close, Virtual, and
Distance Learning
Cause & Effect Relationships
Intelligent Emergency
Management
Training
Real & Near Real Time
Information Flow
Tailored to Community Needs
Information Technology
Data Acquisition
Interface with Multiple
Networks
Increased Understanding
MAKING OTHERS WANT TO DO
WHAT YOU ARE DOING
• USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIVELY
• INITIATE INMOVATIVE, CONCERTED ACTIONS DESIGNED TO
BENEFIT YOUR COMMUNITY AND
GLOBAL “SISTER COMMUNITIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
HAPPEN EVERY YEAR
CYCLONE NARGIS
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR
REDUCING COMMUNITY
DISASTER RISK
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
FLOODING: MIDWESTERN
USA
NEW KNOWLEDGE
FOR CHANGING
HUMAN BEHAVIOR
TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES
WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA
ERUPTION OF VOLCANO
CHAITEN
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TURNING POINTS IN A SUCCESSFUL
MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT
EDUCATION:
PENETRATES SOCIETY
IGNORANCE TO
ENLIGHTENMENT
BUILDING EQUITY
AND TRANSFORMING
BARRIERS INTO
OPPORTUNITIES
APATHY TO
EMPOWERMENT
BOUNDARIES TO
NETWORKS
ENABLEMENT OF
POLITICAL WILL
STEP 4: MAKE THE GOAL—
CHANGING GLOBAL HUMAN
BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR-- A
POLITICAL MANDATE IN EVERY
COUNTRY. [NOTE: DRR SHOULD BE
ON THE AGENDAS OF G-8 and G-20
NATIONS]
STEP 5: IMPLEMENT POLICIES AND
PRACTICES TO CHANGE HUMAN
BEHAVIOR ON DRR INNOVATIVELY,
USING GLOBAL PARTNERS AND
LABORATORIES TO INCREASE THE
ODDS FOR SUCCESS.
INNOVATION
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
GOAL: CHANGE
HUMAN
BEHAVIOR
PARADIGM
SHIFTS
COMMUNITY
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
Stratec Consulting
INCREASE THE ODDS FOR
SUCCESS
INNOVATION THAT FACILITATES
WORKING TOGETHER
AND
WORKING TOGETHER IN WAYS THAT
FACILITATES INNOVATION
EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION
• 1 + 1 >> 1
• Political + Science >> either
Science or Political alone
EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION
• 1 + 1 + 1 + …+ 1 = G-8
8 Nations win
• 1 + 1 + 1 + . . . + 1 = G-20
20 Nations win
• 1 + 1 + 1 +. . . + 1 = 200
Everyone wins
PROTECTING PEOPLE and
their HABITATS
PROTECTING PEOPLE and
their HABITATS
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you make
people, habitats, buildings, and
essential and critical infrastructure
disaster resilient in communities that
are at risk from floods, severe
windstorms, earthquakes, landslides,
tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and
wildfires?
INCREASING THE ODDS FOR
SUCCESS
USE THE “GLOBAL DISASTER
LABORATORIES” TO FORM POLICY
AND BEST PRACTICES
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
EARTHQUAKES
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
POOR DETAILING AND WEAK
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL
AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
CAUSES
OF RISK
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS:
DAMAGE FROM WATER
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING
BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
CAUSES
OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
SITING AND BUILDING ON
UNSTABLE SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
PRECIPITATION THAT
TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE
SHAKING
GROUND SHAKING THAT
TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WIND DIRECTION (DAY AND
NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
FUEL SUPPLY
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
LOSS OF LAND FROM
DESERTIFICATION
PRE- AND POST-DISASTER
ASSESSMENTS
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you use
computers and information
technology to create realistic preevent disaster scenarios and
post-disaster assessments for use
in education and as a basis for
policies and best practices for
disaster risk reduction?
RENEWING COMMUNITY
INFRASTRUCTURE
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you
renew aging community
infrastructure that is becoming
increasingly vulnerable each
year to the disaster risks posed
by natural hazards?
HEALTH CARE
NEW MEDICINES
CLEAN WATER
QUALITY OF LIFE
CONCERNS
HEALTH CARE
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you
identify the specific factors
behind wellness and illness
and follow through on them to
realize the promise of global
health care as an integral part
of the quality of life ?
NEW MEDICINES
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you
find new treatments for age-old
scourges such as malaria as
well as the emerging diseases
such as Alzheimer's and the
deadly Ebola virus?
CLEAN WATER
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you
increase the precious and
relatively short supply of clean
water for personal use,
irrigation, and industrial use in
all areas of the world?
GLOBAL WARMING: CONCERN OF
THE CENTURY
THE QUESTION: Are
Planet Earth’s
solar-atmosphericoceanic-lithospheric and
human- interactions causing
irreversible global
warming?
GLOBAL WARMING: AN
EMERGING THREAT
• THE CHALLENGE: How do you
monitor and adapt to the complex,
long-term physical interactions
that may be causing small changes
in the physical parameters that
control long-term increases in air,
land, and water temperatures?
SOLAR INPUT: THE STARTING
POINT
After reaching
Earth's upper
atmosphere,
about one - third
of the solar
spectrum is
reflected back
into space.
SOLAR INPUT (continued)
Two-thirds gets
through the
upper atmosphere, reaching
the land masses
and oceans—the
engines for
Earth's weather.
GREENHOUSE GASES OCCUR
NATURALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE
• The
greenhouse
gases include
water vapor,
carbon dioxide,
methane and
nitrous oxide.
KEY PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
• Absorption, storage, and re-radiation of
the fraction of light and EM waves that
enter the Earth’s atmosphere (causes the
“natural” greenhouse effect).
• Absorption of heat by the
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
(causes the “un-natural” greenhouse
effect).
“NATURAL”GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
 Greenhouse
gases trap heat
inside the
atmosphere.
NET EFFECT OF THESE
INTERACTIONS
• THE “NATURAL” GREENHOUSE EFFECT
KEEPS THE EARTH WARM AT ABOUT 57.9
DEGREES, BUT
• THE “UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE
EFFECT TRAPS TOO MUCH HEAT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, CAUSING A GLOBAL
INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE
LAND MASSES AND OCEANS.
“UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
 Too much trapped
heat increases
temperatures in the
atmosphere first,
and on the land
and ocean
surfaces, second.
 Causing global
warming.
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT
GLOBAL WARMING?
• The “TIPPING SCENARIO” is
the big unknown that creates
today’s dilemma!
• Question: Is it already too late
to reverse the un-natural (i.e.,
partly man-caused) causes of
global warming?
WE HAVE TO CHANGE
HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT
ALL ASPECTS OF DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION FOR
EVERYONE TO WIN!