Transcript lecture slides - Evan Research Group

SIO-/CHEM-87: UNDERSTANDING
AND PROTECTING THE PLANET
V. Ramanathan, K. Prather and A. Evan
University of California at San Diego
January to March 2015
1 pm to 2.20 pm at NH 101
Course Schedule
1-14-2015 Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability
Ramanathan
1-21-2015 Climate Change
Ramanathan
1-28-2015 Air Pollution, Aerosols & Climate Change
Prather
2-05-2015 The Science of Air Pollution & climate Change
Prather
2-12-2015 Land Use Changes, Desertification, Deforestation
Evan
2-19-2015 Impacts on Agriculture, Food Security
Evan
2-26-2015 Knowledge to Action: Sustainable Energy Access
Ramanathan
3-03-2015 Knowledge to Action: Air Pollution & Climate
Change Mitigation
Ramanathan
SIO 87: UNDERSTANDING AND PROTECTING
THE PLANET
Lecture 1:
Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability
Ram Ramanathan
Lecture 1: OPTIONAL READING
HARVARD Readings in Sustainability Science and Technology;
By Robert W. Kates, Editor CID Working Paper No. 213;
December 2010. Preface by Prof W. C. Clark
WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) 1987.
Our common future. New York: Oxford University Press
(Brundtland Report)
National Research Council (1999): Our Common Journey
(Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, DC).
LECTURE 1: REQUIRED READING
A NEW GEOLOGIC ERA: THE ANTHROPOCENE
DEFINING PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
BASIC DEFINITIONS : SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE IS SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION
IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT—MEETING HUMAN
NEEDS, REDUCING HUNGER AND POVERTY, WHILE MAINTAINING
THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF THE PLANET;
Kates, Harvard Reader, 2012
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY!!
“HUMANITY HAS THE
ABILITY TO MAKE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE
—TO ENSURE THAT IT MEETS THE NEEDS OF THE PRESENT WITHOUT
COMPROMISING THE ABILITY OF FUTURE GENERATIONS TO
MEET THEIR OWN NEEDS.”
Our Common Future; The Brundtland Report or WCED
(World Commission on Environment and Development). 1987
GOALS FOR A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION
the primary goals of a transition toward sustainability over the
next two generations should be to meet the needs of a much larger but
stabilizing human population, to sustain the life support systems
of the planet, and to substantially reduce hunger and poverty.
Note the phrase Next Two Generations!!
So, this course is about your future and the opportunities
you have as students of this course and UCSD to help shape
that future;…. not just for you but all inhabitants of this planet
THIS SEMINAR WILL FOCUS:
ON THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF
THE PLANET
AND ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
• HOW ARE WE DOING CURRENTLY WITH
RESPECT TO THE PLANETARY LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEMS ?
• WHAT SORT OF SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE
TO SUSTAIN THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS?
• WHAT STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN BY OUR
LEADERS?
WHAT ARE THE EXPERTS SAYING?
ONE FINDING FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AS OF 1999
THIS WARNING WAS LAREGLY IGNORED BUT
2015 MAY BE A LAND MARK YEAR !!
I. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Ref: Kates, 2010
1. HUMAN WELL-BEING (9 CHARACTERISTICS)
POPULATION
HEALTH
POVERTY AND AFFLUENCE
HABITATION AND TRANSPORTATION
PEACE AND SECURITY
ENERGY AND MATERIALS
FOOD AND FIBER
WATER AND SANITATION
DISASTERS
2. PROTECTING THE EARTH’S LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS
GLOBAL CLIMATE AND STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WATER
OCEANS
BIODIVERSITY
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
3.HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS
Ref: Kates, 2010
HUMAN DOMINION VS STEWARDSHIP
Are we part of or apart from the Natural World?
TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
For that which is common to the greatest number has the least care
bestowed upon it: Aristotle
LIMITS TO GROWTH:
Success in human endeavor is measured in growth: Bigger is Better
Exponential growth in: Population; Food production; industrialization; resource
depletion; pollution
Growth has limits
GAIA (Lovelock)
living organisms of earth do not just adapt to the planet, but act upon the planet to
make it fit for life, keeping its temperature and atmosphere appropriate for its
inhabitants
• THE PLANETS ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 10000 YEARS
• HOLOCENE: WITNESSED HUMAN CIVILZATIONS
ARISE, DEVELOP AND THRIVE
• A NEW ERA HAS ARISEN: THE ANTHROPOCENE
The Great
Acceleration:
The DRIVERS
THE IMPACTS EQUATION
ECOSYSTEM
RESPONSE
Primary Reference Material on Eco Systems Assessment
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf
2005
• More than 60
percent of the
area projected
to be urban in
2030 has yet
to be built.
Most of the
growth is
expected to
happen in
small and
medium-sized
cities, not in
megacities.
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2012) Cities and Biodiversity Outlook. Montreal, 64 pages.
http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Education/ReactiveN/NitrogenCycling.swf
IPCC-AR5 Chapter 6, Figure 6.2
The eutrophication of the
Potomac River
is evident from the bright
green water,
caused by a dense bloom of
C yanobacteria.
Source: Wikipedia
(NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY)
AQUATIC DEAD ZONES
Eutrophication: Excess Nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrients)
from rivers, sewage, atmospheric deposition. Creates Anoxic conditions
Algal blooms in La
Jolla
Air Pollution as
example
Disease emergence
Eutrophication and Hypoxia
Fisheries collapse(Fig 11; Page 12)
Species Introduction and loss
Regional climate Change
(Sahelian Drought)
Race to the finish line!!
Outdoor Air Pollution
4 million die each year;
about 100 million tons of crops destroyed
NASA-MODIS
Indoor air pollution kills 4 million annually
(WHO 2014)
Outdoor kills another 3 million
November 14 2006
December 21 2001
Ramanathan 2007
Ozone and PM induced crop loss over India: 1998-2008
Burney and Ramanathan (2014)
Particles in the air (aerosols including natural dust) influence
Cloud formation and Rainfall/Snowfall in number of ways
Intercept sunlight and cause dimming at surface; leads to reduced evaporation
and decreased precipitation.
Nucleates more cloud drops and suppress precipitation
Nucleates more ice crystals(dust) and enhance precipitation
Soot absorbs sunlight heats the air and some times evaporates clouds
Major Rainfall Shifts during the last 50 Years
Chung and Ramanathan 2006
Observed Trends in Summer Rainfall: 1950 to 2002
N-S Shift in Asian rainfall
The Weakening Indian Monsoon
The Sahelian Drought
RECORD DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA
FOLSOM LAKE; July 20, 2011
FOLSOM LAKE; JAN 16, 2014
PHOTO CREDIT: DINA SPECTOR, BUSINESS INSIDER, FEB 26, 2014
3. Wildfires
Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
January Issue of Science 2015
Authors: Will Steffen1,2, Katherine Richardson3, Johan Rockström1, Sarah Cornell1,
Ingo Fetzer1, Elena M. Bennett4, R. Biggs1,5, Stephen R. Carpenter6, Wim de Vries7,
Cynthia A. de Wit8, Carl Folke1,9, Dieter Gerten10, Jens Heinke10, Georgina M. Mace11,
Linn M. Persson12, Veerabhadran Ramanathan13, B. Reyers14, Sverker Sörlin15
Planetary boundaries [Rockstrom et al, 2009]
Planetary boundaries [Steffen et al, 2015]
IMPACTS ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT:
SETTING THE BOUNDARIES
THE BOTTOM THREE BILLION WORLD
4 million die every year from smoke pollution
Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India
Photo:Ramanathan, 2009