Transcript Don`t Believe Everything You Think – Thoughts and Discussion on

A Climate of Controversy –
The Danger of Scientific
Illiteracy in a Changing World
Presented by Prof. James Wysong, Jr.
West Central Florida AMS Local Chapter
Hillsborough Community College
Don’t Believe Everything You
Think
But think about
everything you
believe – then ask
yourself why?
Who is this curious fellow?
The Questions at Hand:
Why is scientific illiteracy dangerous?
 Why do so many people believe in
nonsense? (and reject rational ideas in the
process)
 What is the role of professionals, including
meteorologists and educators in
combating this problem?
 Why do you believe what you do?

What is Science?

In its simplest definition, science is a way
of knowing. The word comes down to us
from the Latin word scientia – meaning "to
know."
Science and Superstition
For the greatest part of human history, people
lived in ignorance of the workings of the
natural world that surrounded them. The world
of our ancestors was often a cruel and
mysterious place.
The Power of Science
Science today offers explanations for
phenomena.
 It makes predictions that guide us in the
quest for further understanding.
 It is a self-correcting, ever-compounding
means of gaining knowledge about the
universe that we inhabit.

Mistakes will happen
Paradigms will change
“All our science, measured against reality,
is primitive and childlike – and yet it is the
most precious thing we have.”
Albert Einstein
Einstein’s words remind us that science
does not have all the answers. We still
have much to learn. Science shows us the
way to knowing, it is, as the late Carl
Sagan referred to it, “A candle in the dark".
Does science threaten our beliefs?

What scares some people about the
findings of science is the same thing that
scares them about the truth in many other
matters – it may differ from what we have
already decided to believe.
The philosopher Henre Poincare observed:
“We also know how cruel the truth often is,
and we wonder whether delusion is not
more consoling.”
“The first principle is
that you must not
fool yourself and you
are the easiest person
to fool.”
Dr. Richard Feynman
Nobel Laureate
What Don’t We Like About Science?
We like certainty – science
often only gives us
probabilities.
 We like simple answers, but
that’s not always what we get
from science.
 Sometimes scientific answers
are counterintuitive – and we
don’t like that!

Yes! Humid air
really is lighter!
An educated person is one who has
learned that information almost
always turns out to be at best
incomplete and very often false,
misleading, fictitious, mendacious just dead wrong.
Russell Baker
What is the basis of our beliefs?
We seldom “choose” our religion or political
ideology – we are born into it.
 When it comes to scientific evidence on
societal risks “people endorse which
position reinforces their connection to
others with whom they share important
commitments.”

Dan Kahan in Nature (1/20/2010, 463, 296-297) - The Psychology of the Resistance to Social Change Thinking
What is the basis of our beliefs?
This leads to adopting “no thinking
required” “positions” (on the Left and the
Right)
 Alternatively, we “cherry pick” data to
support a priori beliefs.
 In particular, the Internet has increased
the incidence of selective exposure, (more
commonly called confirmation bias or
biased assimilation).1

1
True Enough: Learning to Live in a Post-Fact Society
by Farhad Manjoo (Wiley, 2008)
Wouldn’t it be nice if……?
That’s what science and critical thinking are for.
“He
that cannot reason is a fool.
He that will not is a bigot.
He that dare not is a slave.”
Andrew Carnegie
Communication or Obfuscation
Doubt – the double-edged sword
 “Fair and Balanced” - Should we always
frame things as a debate? Why?
 Are you listening, or waiting to talk?
 You might not be wrong – but are you
right?

The intelligent
man finds
almost
everything
ridiculous, the
sensible man
almost nothing.
Johann Wolfgang
von Goethe
Ignorance is bliss, sensibility is
comfortable, informed skepticism can be
unsettling.
Where do people get their news? Is
this also where they get their views?
We don’t need no education
(OH YES WE DO!)
Another brick in the wall…….
Roger Waters wrote this about his views on formal education. He hated his
grammar school teachers and felt they were more interested in keeping the
kids quiet than teaching them to think.
Public Perceptions
59 percent1 are convinced that global
warming is happening.
 39 percent2 now believe that global
warming is caused mainly by human
activities
 42 percent3 believe it is caused mostly by
natural changes in the environment.

As compared to 2007 data from a similar survey:
1 Down from 71% in 2007 2 Down from 69% 3Up from 29%
The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 4-5, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling
error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
Public Perceptions
48 percent believe that there is consensus
among the scientific community.
 40 percent believe there is a lot of
disagreement among scientists over
whether global warming is occurring.

American Opinions on Global Warming: Summary
A Yale University / Gallup / ClearVision Institute Poll - 2007
Principal Investigator: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz - School of Forestry & Environmental
Studies Yale University
Perspective on public beliefs:
42% believe in ghosts
 32% believe in UFOs
 26% believe in astrology
 23% believe in witches
 20% believe in reincarnation – that they
were once another person.

“Everybody needs to believe in something….I
believe I’ll have another drink” W.C. Fields
Harris Poll of 2,303 adults surveyed online between November 2 and 11, 2009 by Harris Interactive.
A thought as Halloween approaches:
More Americans believe in ghosts than
Anthropogenic Climate Change (can we
presume that they feel the evidence is
more conclusive?)
Now that’s spooky!
AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists
54 percent indicated that global warming is
happening.
 31 percent reported that global warming is
caused mostly by human activities
 63 percent reported it is caused mostly by
natural changes in the environment.

n = ~500-550 depending on the question
Credentials of respondents:
A.M.S. –CBM seal: 28.7%, A.M.S. Seal of Approval: 55%, N.W.A. Seal of Approval: 33.3%
Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television
Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.
Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.
AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists



93 percent said they are fairly or very well
informed about the causes of global warming.
30 percent said they could easily change their
mind about global warming.
27 percent agreed with the statement by a
prominent TV weathercaster1: “global warming is
a scam.”
n = ~500-550 depending on the question
John Coleman – Co-founder
of the Weather Channel™
Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television
Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.
Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.
Some data to consider:



A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States reviewed
publication and citation data for 1,372 climate
researchers and resulted in the following two
conclusions:
(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively
publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC
(Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and
(ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific
prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are
substantially below that of the convinced researchers.
Some Concluding Thoughts:
We are human, and inherently subject to
biases and irrationality – we have to guard
against this.
 Opinions are fine – when labeled as such.
 In the professions where we enjoy the
public’s trust, we must exercise great care.

We must keep thinking!
“My idea of education is to unsettle the
minds of the young and inflame their
intellects.”
Robert Maynard Hutchins
Thank You for Your Kind
Attention –
please keep thinking.
Jim Wysong