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Climate Change and its impact on Forests in Europe and North America Andrew J. R. Gillespie, Ph. D. United States Environmental Protection Agency Goal of Presentation • • • 2 Overview of climate science relevant to forests Implications for forests in Europe and North America What we are doing about it Office of Research and Development Climate – long term (~30 year) trends in atmospheric behaviors such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind patterns, and storms. Weather – short term (days) atmospheric behavior • 3 Climates are always changing – dynamic systems, not constant Office of Research and Development How do we know climate is changing? • Direct measurements since the mid 1800s – – • 4 Daily temperature, precipitation/many locations Glacier shrinkage Multiple other lines of research prior to 1800s Office of Research and Development 5 Office of Research and Development Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment 6 Office of Research and Development 7 Office of Research and Development 8 Office of Research and Development 9 Office of Research and Development Likely Aspects of Climate Change Increase in heat retained in ocean and atmosphere • 10 • Slight increase (~2-4 degrees) in average global temperature by the end of the century – More change at the poles – Hotter summers, milder winters – Warmer oceans More energy = more extreme weather Office of Research and Development Relationship between Climate and Forests Ecological Niche Set of environmental conditions which enable a species to survive and thrive. Combination of multiple factors: Climate: temperature, precipitation, storm events Physical: soil characteristics, elevation, aspect 11 Analogous to concept of terroir for wine making… Office of Research and Development Relationship between Climate and Forests Change in climate => change in niche Change in niche => existing forests come under stress Increase in stress => vulnerability to other threats 12 Office of Research and Development Likely changes in forest ecosystems • Warmer average temperatures • Longer growing season • CO2 fertilization effect Increased precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns • More extreme weather (ice storm, wind storm, drought, flood) • 13 Office of Research and Development Likely forest ecosystem response • Northward migration of some tree species Changes in forest species composition, succession • • 14 Increased tree mortality, fire risk Office of Research and Development Climate and Forests: North America Canada: ~397 million ha US: ~327 million ha Mexico: ~ 50 million ha TOTAL: ~774 million ha (~ 80 x area of Hungary) North America forest extends from subtropical to boreal Many different forest types, ecological conditions 15 Office of Research and Development 16 Office of Research and Development Relationship between Climate Successful forestand fire prevention Forests => overstocked forests 17 • Overstocking causes stress • Climate-related drought adds to stress • Insects able to infest stressed forests Result is greatly increased tree mortality, higher Office of Research and Development 18 Office of Research and Development Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation European Forest Institute et al. 19 Office of Research and Development Climate Change and Ecosystem Response: Temperate Continental Changes in rainfall distribution Region • Wetter winters = flooding, wind damage, ice storms Dryer, longer summers = more drought stress Warmer temperatures => increased pest problems • Bark beetles, gypsy moth, Phytophthora 20 Increase insect, disease populations due to less Office of Research and Development Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary 21 Office of Research and Development Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary Example: European beech in Hungary (C. Mátyás et al.) • Beech at southern limit of range in Hungary • Xeric limit: genetically determined dryness tolerance Northward shift in xeric limit could lead to complete loss • 22 Office of Research and Development Climate Change and Forest Response: Hungary 23 Office of Research and Development Strategies for Managing Forests in a Changing Climate • • • 24 Mitigation – reduce C emissions, increase C sequestration by growing forests Adaptation – manage forests to maintain health, reduce vulnerability Transformation – change society Office of Research and Development Scale Matters Adaptive strategies are synergistic across large areas: • More ecological niches to work with More resources (financial, intellectual) to work with • 25 Argues for benefit to international cooperation Office of Research and Development Need for Action Continue research to provide good foundation Need to move beyond research to action Adaptive management, systems thinking: Plan – Act – Measure – Analyze … and repeat 26 Office of Research and Development Winter Summer is coming… 27 Office of Research and Development Thank you for your Attention Andrew Gillespie [email protected] Twitter: @ajrgillespie1 28 Office of Research and Development