Transcript Slide 1
Modeling the effects of climate change on multiple ecosystem services Marc Conte, Josh Lawler, Erik Nelson, and Sarah Shafer Marc Conte Stanford University Natural Capital Project Ecosystem services • Ecosystems provide a wide array of goods and services of value to people (ecosystem services) – Provision entails foregone intensive land-use – Tradeoff between social value of provision vs private payoffs • Service supply is determined by biophysical properties, based on land cover • Realized supply is a function of service supply and demand for services from society Welfare impacts of climate change Research questions • How will ecosystem services change as climate regimes shift? • How will land-use decisions that ignore climate change impact the provision and value of different services? • How would landowners alter land-use decisions if the impacts of climate change were considered? Approach -- InVEST • GIS-based tool that uses biophysical and economic models to quantify and value a suite of ecosystem services • InVEST converts user-provided data into spatiallyexplicit outputs of service provision and valuation – Scenario-based model relevant for policymakers – Capacity to address biodiversity and multiple services • Tiered models provide outputs at varying spatial and temporal resolutions given data availability • Product of The Natural Capital Project Approach -- Methodology • We compare provision under different climate regimes on predicted future landscapes in the Willamette Basin – Climates • 2000 (observed) • 2055 (estimated from Hadley GCM) – Landscapes (Hulse et al., 2002) • Planned Trend • Conservation • Development • We consider the impact of altered climate on – Water available for irrigation – Carbon storage and sequestration – Biodiversity Approach -- Climate data • Future climate regime derived from the UKMO-HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM simulation under the A2 emissions scenario – Total monthly precipitation – Mean monthly temperature • The predicted climate variables were downscaled spatially to a 30-second grid covering the Willamette Basin (Lawler et al., in press) Approach -- Irrigation • We focus on five different agricultural products – – – – Blackberries/Raspberries Blueberries Strawberries Wine grapes • CropWat 4.0 (FAO, 1992) predicts crop-specific irrigation demand based on local climate regime Irrigation -- InVEST Change in irrigation demand Approach -- Carbon • Changes in carbon storage and sequestration are driven by changes in vegetative cover due to climate change – We track carbon stored in biomass and soil • Given timber harvest in the area, we consider the extent to which management might moderate predicted veg change – Unmanaged scenarios -- maps show all changes predicted by cover model – Managed scenarios -- maps identify changes that cannot be mitigated by society Carbon -- InVEST Approach -- Biodiversity • Calculate a marginal biodiversity value for each parcel (500 ha hexagon) • MBV~proportion of total biodiversity contained on parcel – Function of number of species with potential range overlapping the parcel – Function of fraction of each species’ compatible habitat area contained by the parcel (breeding or foraging) • Consider change in MBV from 2000 to 2050 climates – In 2000, data on 190 native species – Allow movement into/out of Basin under future climate regime Biodiversity Concluding thoughts • Climate change will impact social welfare through effects on ecosystem-service provision • Land-use plans can be adjusted to mitigate welfare impacts of climate change • Land management may help offset welfare impacts of climate change • http://invest.ecoinformatics.org