Transcript CESM Workshop on Societal Dimensions and Earth System Modeling

CESM Societal Dimensions
Working Group
Summary of June 21, 2012
Session at 17th CESM Workshop
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
CESM and Societal Dimensions
Develop collaborations between the CESM community & those
working on issues relating societal dimensions and climate change
CESM
WATER
IA
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
IAM topics of interest
Land use
Urban areas and energy use
Water in IAMs
Forestry management
Assessing renewable energy
potentials
• Air quality, climate, and impacts
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CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Types of IAM-ESM interactions
A. Off-line
B. Improved
IAM
C. Improved
ESM
D. Full
coupling
Emissions
IAM
Hum
Env
IAM
Hum
Atm.
Climate
Env
Env
Chem
Ocean
Atm.
Land
Hum
Chem
Ocean
Atm.
Land
ESM
Env
Chem
Ocean
Land
ESM
IAM
Hum
Land use
ESM
IAM
Hum
Land
ESM
Atm.
Chem
Ocean
Based on van Vuuren et al., 2012, ERL.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Data
Human
System
Your
Favorite
iPETS
Integrated
Assessment
Model
Evaluation &
Uncertainty
Analysis
THESIS
Toolbox for Human-Earth System
Integration & Scaling
Human
System
Impacts
Data
Earth System
Earth
System
urban
agriculture
forests
Impact & Adaptation
Assessment
CESM
Community
Earth
System Model
Visualization
& Decision
Support
EaSM2 Proposal. PI: O’Neill (NCAR); Co-PIs: Lawrence, Levis, Oleson (NCAR),
Feddema (U. Kansas), Jain (U. Illinois), Barton (ASU)
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Land Use: Overarching Questions
 How sensitive is regional climate to
differences in land use and land cover
change?
 How sensitive are land use decisions to
differences in regional climate change?
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Possible Near-Term Activities
 Test sensitivity of climate outcomes in the
Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs) to land use assumptions
 Examine the climate implications of IAM
scenarios that make alternative
assumptions about agricultural productivity
 Test the implications of full IAM-CESM
coupling vs one-way coupling
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Three Major Goals of iESM
 Create a first generation integrated Earth System Model (iESM)
with both the human components of an IAM and a physical
ESM.
 Further develop components and linkages within the iESM and
apply the model to improve our understanding of the coupled
physical, ecological, and human system.
 Foster a community of users and applications of iESM.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
What core capabilities does this provide?
 Ability to factor climate change effects into
analyses of mitigation strategies.
 Quantification of resource demands
required to address climate change.
 Determination of how coupling affects the
climate-energy-land system:
Comparison to uncoupled approaches
 The development of an iESM means that
fully consistent analysis of potential future
climate change, emissions mitigation options,
and impacts and adaptation options will be
possible.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
iESM = 4 Models: GCAM, GLM, CLM, & CESM
Fossil Fuel & Industrial Emissions (Gridded)
1. GCAM
(Human Dimensions
Elements only;
15 ghgs, aerosols,
SLS; 14
geopolitical
regions; 151
Ecoregions)
2. GLM
Land
Use
(½ x ½ degree
grid land-useland-cover.)
ESM1
LU-LC
(3. CLM &
4. CESM)
This provides the same capability as the RCP+CMIP process.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Exploratory simulations with iESM
iESM RCP Emulation
Fossil fuel
emissions
GCAM
GLM
CLM/CESM
C stocks,
productivity
iESM
Terrestrial
Feedbacks
Climate
Up/down scaling
(space and time)
Atm CO2
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Next steps with iESM
 Model is now being vetted by iESM science team.
 Model has been described to SDWG: Feb. and Jun. 2012
 During fall 2012:
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Share code on read-only basis with SDWG co-chairs
Prepare and share papers on iESM
Prepare and share scientific and user guides
Brief Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium
Lay groundwork for sharing iESM output.
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
Next steps (cont.)
 During winter 2013 SDWG meeting:
 Review iESM capability with the SDWG
 Assess issues of extensibility
 Pending outcome of this meeting, release in Dec. 2013?
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy
The End
CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy