Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION - Welsh Ornithological Society

Severn Tidal Energy
The Cardiff/Weston Barrage – Context and
Implications
Peter K Jones – Environmental Policy Officer
INTRODUCTION
•
Climate change: the policy context – global and UK
•
•
•
•
•
Energy: the policy context – EU, UK and Wales
Renewable energy options: wind, solar, biomass, tidal
Severn estuary: habitats and wildlife
Severn estuary: tidal range
Severn estuary: energy project options – barrages, lagoons,
others
Cardiff/Weston barrage
SDC Report: ‘Turning the tide’
Frontier Economics Report: ‘Analysis of a Severn barrage’
UK Government Feasibility Study
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Consensual scientific conclusion (IPCC, 2007) that volume
of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) should not exceed
400ppm if dangerous, possibly runaway global warming is
to be avoided.
• CO2 level already at 386ppm and rising by more than 2ppm
each year – likely to reach 400ppm by 2015.
• Average global temperature rise could be 3 or 4 C by midcentury, possibly triggering massive methane release from
tundra and ocean floors.
• Government committed to 60% CO2 emission reduction by
2050 – likely soon to be increased to 80%.
ENERGY POLICY
• European Union (EU) has set target of 20% of energy from
renewable sources by 2020.
• Energy – electricity generation, heat and transport,
principally from burning fossil fuels – coal, gas and oil –
which are the main source of carbon emissions.
• UK has 2020 target of 15% energy from renewables – 40%
electricity generation from renewables.
• Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) aims to generate all
Welsh electricity from renewable sources by 2025 – with or
without a Severn barrage
RENEWABLE ENERGY
• Unlike fossil fuels, which are finite and drive global
warming and climate change, renewable energy sources
will always be available and, in operation, are almost
entirely carbon-free.
• Principal renewables are: wind, both on- and off-shore;
solar, both for heating and to generate electricity; biomass,
both wood and crops; and tidal, both range and stream.
• Currently, c4.5% of UK electricity and 1.5% of energy are
from renewable sources (cf 40% and 15% UK/EU targets) –
tenfold increase required by 2020.
• UK tidal energy could contribute up to 10% of UK electricity.
• Severn Barrage could contribute 4.5% of electricity and 1%
of energy.
Home to 68,000
waders and
wildfowl: the
Severn estuary
has one global
and two
European
conservation
designations
SEVERN ENVIRONMENT
• The Severn has a mean tidal range of 8.2m (26 ft).
• Twice daily tidal movements
• Produces 23,000ha of intertidal mudflats and
sandflats (including Bridgewater Bay) and
extensive areas of saltmarsh.
• Five internationally important bird species:
Bewick’s swan; mute swan; shelduck; pintail;
dunlin.
• Special Protection Area; Special Areas of
Conservation; Ramsar site; various SSSIs.
SEVERN ENERGY OPTIONS
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Ten energy projects have been proposed:
Five barrage lines, including Cardiff/Weston and the Shoots, just
south of the second road bridge.
Two lagoon projects.
Tidal fence.
Tidal reef.
Severn lake.
These are all tidal range options.
Tidal stream technologies are not under consideration for the
Severn.
CARDIFF/WESTON BARRAGE
• Would be constructed between Lavernock Point in Penarth
and Brean Down, near Weston-super-Mare.
• Approximately 16 km (10 miles) in length.
• Would generate 17 TWh of electricity pa (UK current annual
consumption of 380/400 TWh) – therefore around 4.5%.
• Load efficiency of 22/23%, cf offshore wind at 30/35%.
• Construction cost would be at least £15 billion and
probably £20/25 billion.
• Cost comparable to constructing say 6 or 7 gas or nuclear
stations, with total output of 40/45 TWh.
• Earliest availability – 2022.
SDC REPORT
• ‘’A tidal barrage would fundamentally change the
nature of the Severn Estuary’’.
• Concluded that ‘’there is a strong case to be
made for a sustainable barrage’’.
• No weakening of, or derogation from, the EU
Birds and Habitats Directives.
• Barrage to be one part of much larger programme
to cut UK carbon emissions by at least 60%.
• Publicly financed; public onwership.
FRONTIER ECONOMICS
REPORT
• Looked at:
The basis upon which the UK Government could
justify supporting Severn tidal power, especially
the proposed Cardiff/Weston barrage; and the
costs and benefits of a barrage in the Severn.
• Concluded that it would be difficult to justify
Government support specifically for a barrage;
and that ‘’a large barrage on the Severn is
expensive compared to alternative ways of
generating renewable electricity’’.
Comparison of alternative generation costs
(excluding solar and fuel cell technologies)
160
120
100
Max
Min
Average
80
60
40
20
C
M
Note: for details and full description, including limitations, see main report
H
P
re
ne
w
ab
La
le
nd
fil
lG
as
C
om
bu
st
ib
le
ba
rr
un
ag
ic
e
ip
al
w
Sm
as
te
al
lb
ar
ra
ge
N
uc
M
le
ed
ar
iu
m
hy
W
dr
in
o
d
O
ns
ho
S
re
m
al
lH
W
yd
in
ro
d
O
ffs
ho
re
0
La
rg
e
£/MWh, £ of 2010
140
Annual cost of generating output equivalent to
a large barrage
(2010£million)
Cost of producing the output of barrage - main renewables
2,500
2,000
M£
1,500
1,000
500
Note: for details and full description, including limitations, see main report
ffs ho
re
Wind
O
l Hyd
ro
Smal
CHP
nsho
re
Wind
O
Large
b a rra
ge
0
UK FEASIBILITY STUDY
• Aims to decide, after public consultation, whether or not a
Severn tidal power scheme could be supported and on
what terms.
• RSPB and other NGOs – WWF, FoE – involved.
• Initial report promised for December 2008 – will recommend
whether to continue or whether ‘show-stoppers’ –
environmental impact or cost.
• If continues, final report likely in Spring 2010.
• If project proceeds: planning/public inquiry to c2014.
CONCLUDING COMMENTS
• Case against the Cardiff/Weston barrage:
1. Would significantly reduce over-wintering designated
habitat for internationally and nationally important birds.
2. Would not be justified in cost terms in comparison with
cheaper alternative renewable energy options, principally
wind power.
• However, if Government rules that there are no
alternatives: Imperative Reasons of Overriding Public
Importance (IROPI: Habitats Regulations); would need to
provide compensatory habitat for displaced birds – 14,500
inter-tidal ha likely to be lost – cost c£1 billion
• Will decision be evidence-based or political?
DISCUSSION/QUESTIONS
THANK YOU