Transcript Document

CLIMAG: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE
Goal
To utilize the ability to predict climate variability on the scale
of months to a year to improve management and decision
making in respect to crop production at local, regional, and
national scales
CLIMAG: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE
Objectives
•To enhance the interface between meteorological, agricultural, and
social science communities
•To develop the capacity, in tropical regions, for the integrated use of
climate and agricultural modeling leading to improved techniques for
forecasting yield
•To establish the forecasting needs of local, regional, and national
decision-makers leading to an evaluation of ways of using such
information to improve decision-making in crop production
Major Research Elements
•Climate Predictions and Agronomic data collection
•Crop Modelling and Yield Predictions
•Management Considerations and Impact Assessment
Large Scale
GCMs
Down
scaling
Predicted
Regional
Weather Data
Down
scaling
Predicted
Local
Weather Data
Archive
Data
Regional
Yield
Surveys
CLIMAG
Small Scale
Regional
Soil &
Crop Data
Regional
Yield Data
Regional
Empirical/
Statistical
Modelling
Regional
Mechanistic
Crop
Modelling
Regional
Crop Yield
Predictions
Regional
Management
Decisions
Regional
Agricultural
Impact
Assessment
Upscaling
Local
Tactical
Management
Options
Local Soil
& Crop Data
Local
Mechanistic
Crop
Modelling
Local
Crop Yield
Predictions
CLIMATE
PREDICTIONS &
AGRONOMIC DATA
COLLECTION
Crop, Soil
& Socioeconomic
Surveys
CROP MODELLING
& YIELD
PREDICTIONS
Local
Management
Decisions
Local
Agricultural
Impact
Assessment
MANAGEMENT
CONSIDERATIONS
& IMPACT ASSESSMENT
CLIMAG Steering Group
Chair: Hartmut Grassl
Members: J. Hansen, M.V.K. Sivakumar, S. Gadgil, P. Gregory, IHDP Rep. (tbd)
Terms of Reference
Guide START’s CLIMAG project, including:
•Implement regional “demonstration” projects and pilot projects,
undertake capacity building activities
•Identify strategic research challenges that should be taken up by
START’s program sponsors and their core projects
Foster partnership between
•Various stakeholder communities
•Resource agencies
Significant progress on
all terms of Reference…
CLIMAG South Asian Demonstration Project
Project Partners:
 APSRU/CSIRO, Australia
 Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
 Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India
 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
 Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
 Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Pakistan
 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, USA
 Asia-Pacific Network
 NOAA
CLIMAG West Africa Demonstration Project
Project Partners:
Mali Meteorological Service
Institute of Rural Economic Development (Mali)
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT-Mali)
African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD-Niger)
Agricultural, Hydrological, and Meteorological Programme (AGRHYMET-Niger)
Institute of Agrometeorology and Environmental Analysis for Agriculture (Italy)
Wageningen University (The Netherlands)
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (USA)
PLANNING WORKSHOPS ( Bogor and Benin, 1997)
CLIMAG TASK GROUP (1997/99)
INTERNATIONAL CLIMAG WORKSHOP (Geneva, 9/99)
CLIMAG
To Date
• Proceedings volume published (01/01)
START FELLOWSHIP AND GUEST LECTURSHIP AWARDS
• Fellows from India and Pakistan nodes of CLIMAG South Asia proj ect trained at
DP I/AP SRU (Australia) in systems modeling approaches
• Fellows from Meteo Mali, Institute for Rural Economics and ACMAD, trained at Univ ersity
of EastAnglia, the Applied Meteorology Foundation, Florence and W agingen
Univ ersity.
CLIMAG PROJECT WORKSHOPS
• South Asian Proj ect Training W orkshop on Applied Agricultural Systems Analysis (11/00)
• South Asian Proj ect Team members participate in START/APN/NOAA E ast-W est Center
Training Course on Climate Variability and Climate (2/01)
• CLIMAG W est Africa Proj ect initiation meeting, with the support of EC/ENRICH (4/01)
ADVANCED TRAINING INSTITUTE AND FOLLOW-UP RESEARCH AWARDS
• Host Institute Partner: IRI / Funded by: P ackard Foundation / Date: 8 July - 26 July, 2002
CLIMAG To Date (continued)
INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE &
FORESTRY TO CLIMATE VARIABLITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
• J ointly Supported by: W MO, ST ART , FAO, UNEP, ICRIS AT , ICARDA, ICRA F, and CTA
• Organized by: M.V.K. Sivakumar
• Date/Venue: 7-9 Oc tober 2002/Ljubliana, Slovenia
CLIMAG WEST AFRICA EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS EXPERT MEETING
• Organized by: G.Marac c hi
• Date/Venue: September 2002/Florenc e, Italy
MONSOON ENVIRONMENTS: AGRICULTURAL AND HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF
SEASONAL VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
• J ointly Supported by: ICT P , EU PROMIS E, and S T ART
• Organized by: J .Slingoand P. Gregory
• Date/V enue: Marc h 2003/T ries te, Italy
ADVANCED TRAINING INSTITUTE SYNTHESIS WORKSHOP
• Organized by: ST ART and IRI
• Date/V enue: May 2005/W MO, Geneva
A Challenge for the ESSP family..,
A fundamental science question is whether the
impacts of climate variability on regional crop
production are best estimated by:
(a) Downscaling climate models, running crop models,
and scaling-up the results to regional scales
Or
(b) Developing regional crop models which can
interface directly with large scale climate modelbased information (including both statistical and
mechanistic modeling approaches)
A challenge to us all…Climate is one of the many
factors that affect farming systems!
Other
related developments:
IRI – a mature organization
WMO-CLIPS
START: AIACC (several projects); Africa grants (several)
NOAA OGP support of projects
Development of GECaFS/ESSP
CGIAR: Challenges program
WB: Ag S&T Assessment
IFPRI:
….

EXPECTATIONS FROM THIS WORKSHOP…
(1) Review of the State-of-knowledge and our ability to effectively use
this knowledge
(2) Special Issue of “XXXXX Journal”
(3) Recommendations for the way forward…for further consideration
by the C&D Meeting (Stockholm, May 2005)
(4) Report/Workshop proceedings to Sponsors
THANK YOU:
WMO
ALL SPONSORS
WORKSHOP DIRECTORS
ALL PARTICIPANTS