Transcript Document

www.climategroup.org.ua
National Ecological Centre of Ukraine
Introduction to global climate
change and impacts in Ukraine
Iryna Stavchuk, January 2009
www.climategroup.org.ua
► Network
of 16 non-governmental non-profit
environmental organizations in Ukraine on
climate change;
► Main aim: influencing policy decision makers
to reduce GHG emissions in Ukraine to fight
climate change;
What do we do?
We comment drafts of
legislation related to climate
change and positions of
Ukrainian delegation to
international negotiations
We prepare NGO statements
and positions on specific
issues, e.g. International
emissions trading, state of
Kyoto protocol
implementation in Ukraine.
Plan of the presentation
► Introduction
to global climate change:
 what is happening?
 what are the reasons?
 what are the impacts?
► Climate
change impacts in Ukraine;
► State of international negotiations on
climate change and future obligations for
Ukraine
What is happening?
Facts and observations
► +0,7
С warming from preindustrial levels;
► 11 out of last 12 years (1995-2006) are
warmest in the period of observation
► Antarctic
is melting very fast and some
studies predict total melting by already
2020!
► Same happening with glaciers all over the
world
1970
2005
► Observations
results of:
show shifting in rain patters with
 increase in strength and number of draughts in
tropics and subtropics, which is a tragedy for local
populations;
 increase in floods in other regions;
 increase in number of unstable weather events,
hurricanes all over the planet
What are the reasons?
Changes in
concentration
of GHG over
last
10000 years
What are the impacts?
Increase in number of extreme weather events:
infrastructure damages, economic losses;
2. More unstable weather events: droughts, floods,
heavy winds and rains – impacts on agriculture;
1.
Water shortages for over 500 million people on
the planet;
4. Increase in sea level rise. Around 100 million
people are at the risk of loosing their houses;
5. Up to 50% of flora and fauna can disappear;
6. Risk of invasion by new insects and infectious
diseases;
3.
Dangerous warming
Necessary global emission
reductions to keep in 2C
International negotiations:
Industrialized countries:
-25-40% by 2020 from 1990
- 80% by 2050
Developing countries would
also have to reduce
emissions!
-50% for the whole planet
by 2050
Economics of climate change
It is more expensive or could be
impossible to adopt to climate
change!
Nicolas Stern: to keep within 2C we
need 1% of global GDP
Inaction means 5-20% losses of global
GDP in the following decades.
Climate change impacts in
Ukraine
There are 2 scenarios:
First:
► Countries
sign Post Kyoto deal with
necessary emission reductions to keep
warming within 2C;
► In this case in Ukraine there will be
certain negative impacts, but not
catastrophic.
Second:
Emissions in
Ukraine and in
other countries
will not be
limited to the
necessary levels
1.
More extreme weather events: storms, floods,
droughts, heat waves, heavy rains and winds
► Statistics: during 2001-2005 number and magnitude
of extreme weather events increased almost twice in
comparison with 1980s and early 1990s.
Possible changes in average
temperature by 2100:
►
South of Ukraine:
 summer +28...+30°С (now
+21...+23°С),
 winter +2...+5°С (now -3...0°С)
►
Central and Northern Urkaine:
 summer +24...+25°С (now
+18...+19°С),
 winter +2...+4°С (зараз -3...-5°С)
Rain
► South,
East, Center:
 Decrease in summer by 35-40%
 Decrease in winter by 20%
 Annual river stock decrease by 50% in south and east
regions;
► Water
shortage for local population, agriculture
and industries.
► Movement
of flora and fauna to the pole.
Climate of east and south will get
semidesert features, north will get steppe
features;
► Sea
level rise;
► Migration to Ukraine from the countries
where it will be impossible to live.
What does it mean to reduce
GHG emissions?
Energy efficiency in all sectors: industrial,
buildings, appliances, transport
Energy Intensity in Belarus and Other Countries, 2007
0.5
0.45
0.4
OECD Europe
World
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
Poland
People's Rep. of China
Czech Republic
Belarus
Ukraine
Pe
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Po
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ep
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fC
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hi
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bl
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Be
la
ru
s
Uk
ra
in
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Russia
W
or
ld
Eu
ro
pe
0.1
0.05
0
O
EC
D
Toe per Thousand USD at 2000 prices and PPP
1.
IEA, 2008
Energy efficiency
Ukraine in Post Kyoto
negotiations
► Ukraine
is an Annex 1 country and should
take emission reduction target;
► Ukrainian government announced 20%
reduction from the level of 1990 by 2020,
but will have to take more. It is very likely
that Ukraine would have to stabilize its
emissions by 2020.
Thank you for
attention!
Iryna Stavchuk
[email protected]
www.climategroup.org.ua
Ukraine: GHG emissions 19902004
Ukraine: projections of GHG
emissions by 2030